Underrated Growth of Central Business Districts of Large Cities?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In many of the US's largest cities, CBDs of large cities like NYC, Philly, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Seattle, all saw signigicantly higher growth rates than their surrounding communities, typically minority heavy. Infact in the case of NY and IL, the growth of these communities was the highest of anywhere in the state from 2010 and were a large reason states like NY and NJ overperformed. Infact, the old IL-07 was actually the only IL seat to be overpopulated despite IL losing a seat. Seats like MA-07, NY-12, and NJ-08 are actually the most underpopulated in the entire states. And this is all despite covid which supposedly made these sorts of communities undesireable.

Is this a trend that we could continue to see? What's interesting is that these CBDs build up, meaning a plot of land that may traditionally support say 10 single family homes can support an apartment building home to 100s of families. Might we see a new category of "hyper-urban" communities significantly denser than really anything we're currently seeing?

FYI, CBD refers to the area at the very center of the city, typically where skyscrapers are and where most of the large corporations are located. Generally, most highways and transportation either revolve around or lead to this area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Downtown Nashville precinct is noticeably more Republican than anything that surrounds it.  I have to assume it is due to luxury condo buildings there.  It wouldn't surprise me if those sorts of buildings (in TN, at least) are competitive for Republicans.

Def very interesting observation. Bet it also gotta do with the immediate downtown being whiter than the surrounding areas. Biden clean-sweeped downtown in 2020 it looks like, with only 1 very low population precinct going to Trump (has 3 votes on DRA lol). Seems like the CBD also saw a massive turnout bump in 2020, padding Biden's raw vote margin even though the shift was pretty neutral. Seems like Rs can hold the margin relatively close but would struggle to outright win the CBD.

Reminds me of Houston where Cornyn I believe outright won the CBD in Houston despite a doughnut of blue around it iirc. Nowadays though I think it's too far gone for any R

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

This was interesting article on that and gets to the point that in the superstar cities, these are the places where new housing. In the case of NYC, the Williamsburg-Greenpoint-LIC area had major upzonings during the 2000s, which bears out in the subsequent population growth. Jersey City’s been pursuing one of the most aggressive pro-development agendas of any blue area in the country and in the style of an old-timey booster, has been explicit about wanting to be the largest city in the state. It shows in the population numbers.

Jersey City is insane. Jersey City insane of the I-95 (the downtown area with the most skyscrapers and most direct access to NYC) has gone from 44k folks to 66k folks in just 10 years, which is 50% growth. This part of Jersey City used to basically be a large industrial rail yard factory port area, and then became a bunch of parking lots with some scattered office buildings. Today, those parking lots are all being bought up and turning into high-rises. If you go on google maps today, you can still see a few parking lots but nearly all have plans to become something else.

Jersey City is single-handidly the reason I feel confident Ds should be fine in NJ long term, at least on the federal level.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.



Gold Coast precincts saw growth, but much less impressive tending to be more around 10%. From breif online images, seems like the Gold Coast neighborhood has been built up for a while and hasn't seen tons of new development.

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.

-snip-

Source:
https://www.redistrictingandyou.org/?mapData=popchgpct1020&districtType=stateleglower&geoid=17005&markerL=41.8210%2C-87.6212#map=11.62/41.8594/-87.6125

Thanks for posting the source. The Oregon State House Districts that experienced the most growth don't surprise me, I'm not surprised to see the ones that contain the Intel campuses and the exurban Washington County one up there along with Deschutes County. The one with the highest growth isn't exurban but it does contain a trendy chunk of the I-405 loop of Portland proper and a fair chunk of unincorporated suburbia.

Not familiar enough with growth patterns on the Washington side to really comment, but it's interesting how the CD containing downtown Vancouver decreased in population.

The higher-growth CDs in King County in darker purple make intuitive sense to me. Gentrifying/more gentrified areas of Seattle proper north of downtown with lots of newer buildings, the Bellevue-Redmond CD around the Microsoft campus, and the Bothell-centered CD containing a lot of newly built housing tracts in Snohomish County.

Quick caveat, no districts in the Vancouver WA shrunk in population, though the one in the immediate downtown grew slower than the state at large - that might be what you're referring too. Infact, not a single HD in the entire state of WA shrunk.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact; in Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, the fastest growing state House district (on old lines) takes in the entirety of or a significant portion of the downtown/financial district of the state's "main" city. In NY, the fastest growing district is Williamsburg based AD-50 which is extremely dense with large apartment blocks and across the river from Manhattan, but would not be considered part of the downtown area itself. The third fastest growing NY district is the one that actually takes in the heart of midtown. And if it weren't for Lakewood, NJ's fastest would be the district that takes in most of the Waterfront Jersey City area which again is just across the river from Manhattan and extremely built up at this point with large 50 floor apartment buildings.

What district is it for Illinois/what is your source?  I live in Gold Coast and absolutely love it/Chicago, but I find that difficult to believe.  

HD-05, which grew by a total of 20% since 2010. Tbf, there's no one district that truly represents downtown Chicago, but HD-05 takes in the most and has the highest share of it's population from the Loop/Magnificent Mile area.

If you were to draw a HD that actually maximizes downtown Chicago such as the one below, you get even higher population growths. According to DRA, this district's total population would've grown by 37% since 2010. Literally no other HD in the entire state of IL comes remotely close.

Gold Coast precincts saw growth, but much less impressive tending to be more around 10%. From breif online images, seems like the Gold Coast neighborhood has been built up for a while and hasn't seen tons of new development.

I should have read more closely, as growth since 2010 does not necessarily surprise me.  However, I would bet that area has seen a significant decline since 2020 ... sure seems like it "on the ground."

It's kind of weird because I feel similar living in a dense part of NYC, even though I still see all these large apartment buildings being built and rapid gentrification of certain communities, and rents are only increasing. I wonder if the general media around COVID and cities sort of fuels this idea in our minds that downtowns of cities are undesirable now with remote work, so when we see anything that supports that narrative, we're more likely to notice it and log it in our heads.

I think the general theme of what is happening in cities like NYC and Chicago is the "gentrification bubble" is expanding, pricing out more lower- and middle-class neighborhoods, particularly those of color, but what replaces them is denser development of more "educated elite" types. Families who may have lived in the city for decades or even generations being priced out gets more media than the doctors, lawyers, and computer engineers moving in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was something that was hyped up a lot when peak oil doomerism was big and an energy crisis presaged the Great Recession...before the dramatic increase in US oil production started to cause a noticeable downward pressure on transportation costs in the mid-2010s. While I don't think we'll disperse nearly as much as was hyped up during COVID- remote work can't be nearly that widespread and people still want to live close to amenities- it looks like the suburbanization trend is here to stay. This is just a gentrifier thing.

Something will have to be done about the commuting situation in Houston, though, because it's going to be a crisis someday. The sprawl is too big and the traffic congestion is crazy. As much as I miss Texas I don't know how I could have done it there. Packing people in the inner-city again won't be a solution though, for quality of life or for sustainability (I'm skeptical that the technologies that could support a sustainable high-density city like vertical farming will ever be as productive and comparatively energy efficient as field farming).

What's interesting is in a lot of major US cities, it seems like the fastest growing parts (based on 2020 numbers) were the immediate downtown and then the outer ring of suburbs/exurbs.

The issue with most US suburbs today is one they are filled in, the population can't really increase without upzoning which tends to be very difficult. However places that were upzoned from the start have a much higher theoretical cap on their capacity. I wonder if some of the folks moving into downtowns of cities are people who in an ideal world may have chosen to live in the inner-ring of suburbs, but are locked out, and they don't want to move to the outer ring cause it's too far from the city's amenities, and hence they choose to live downtown.

A good example of how stark the urban dropoff can be because of zoning is in NYC between the Bronx and Westchester County where it goes from true urban to very suburban very fast. The way zoning works is very different between counties. There are a handful of subway lines that end literally at the County border. On Google Earth, you can see the notable drop off from a mixing of single and multifamily dwellings to all single-family homes, often with yardspace.