Rate the new VA-07

[lfromnj]

Pretty sure Youngkin carried this one by 6 points. It's Tilt R at the very least and I don't think Abigail Spanberger of all people can turn out the heavily minority D base in PWC (well, let alone win the primary assuming one of the PWC politicos throw their hat in the ring.)

I still voted Tilt D here, but this has me wondering: Does Spanberger actually live in the new VA-07? She has stated she’ll run here, but I don’t know if she actually lives in the new district.

No she lives in Henrico. She does represent the R parts of this district though .

[lfromnj]

Tilt R.

People here clearly don't think 2022 is going to be a Republican wave, if we think Biden's number in 2020 is more predictive than Youngkin's in 2021.

I think Bidens margin is lower than stated while Youngkins is a bit too high. I would add 1 point to the Dem margin.