Rate the new VA-07
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Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Your rating?
#1
Safe R
 
#2
Likely R
 
#3
Lean R
 
#4
Tilt R
 
#5
Tilt D
 
#6
Lean D
 
#7
Likely D
 
#8
Safe D
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: Rate the new VA-07  (Read 707 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
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E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« on: December 28, 2021, 06:54:33 PM »


Voted for Biden by almost 7 points.
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😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
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Ukraine
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2021, 07:25:45 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D
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BoiseBoy
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E: -2.05, S: -1.13

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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2021, 08:31:55 PM »

Spanberger will hold on by 3 or so points.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2021, 08:49:29 PM »

Pretty sure Youngkin carried this one by 6 points. It's Tilt R at the very least and I don't think Abigail Spanberger of all people can turn out the heavily minority D base in PWC (well, let alone win the primary assuming one of the PWC politicos throw their hat in the ring.)
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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E: -4.52, S: 2.61

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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2021, 11:34:55 AM »

I voted Tilt R. Spanberger isn't necessarily the strongest candidate for Dems here.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2021, 11:58:54 AM »

Tilt R.

People here clearly don't think 2022 is going to be a Republican wave, if we think Biden's number in 2020 is more predictive than Youngkin's in 2021.
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JMT
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2021, 12:00:11 PM »

Pretty sure Youngkin carried this one by 6 points. It's Tilt R at the very least and I don't think Abigail Spanberger of all people can turn out the heavily minority D base in PWC (well, let alone win the primary assuming one of the PWC politicos throw their hat in the ring.)

I still voted Tilt D here, but this has me wondering: Does Spanberger actually live in the new VA-07? She has stated she’ll run here, but I don’t know if she actually lives in the new district.
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JMT
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2021, 12:03:14 PM »

Pretty sure Youngkin carried this one by 6 points. It's Tilt R at the very least and I don't think Abigail Spanberger of all people can turn out the heavily minority D base in PWC (well, let alone win the primary assuming one of the PWC politicos throw their hat in the ring.)

I still voted Tilt D here, but this has me wondering: Does Spanberger actually live in the new VA-07? She has stated she’ll run here, but I don’t know if she actually lives in the new district.

Actually, I think I just found the answer. Looks like Spanberger doesn’t live in the new VA-07. She may be vulnerable in a primary.



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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2021, 12:37:30 PM »

Pretty sure Youngkin carried this one by 6 points. It's Tilt R at the very least and I don't think Abigail Spanberger of all people can turn out the heavily minority D base in PWC (well, let alone win the primary assuming one of the PWC politicos throw their hat in the ring.)

I still voted Tilt D here, but this has me wondering: Does Spanberger actually live in the new VA-07? She has stated she’ll run here, but I don’t know if she actually lives in the new district.

No she lives in Henrico. She does represent the R parts of this district though .
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2021, 12:41:52 PM »

Tilt R, certainly wouldn’t shed any tears for Spanberger losing, but I’m like many Republican wins in 2022, it would be a two-year loan, or a four-year loan at the most if 2024 is a really good year for Republicans.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2021, 12:44:38 PM »

Tilt R.

People here clearly don't think 2022 is going to be a Republican wave, if we think Biden's number in 2020 is more predictive than Youngkin's in 2021.

I think Bidens margin is lower than stated while Youngkins is a bit too high. I would add 1 point to the Dem margin.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2021, 12:48:59 PM »

Is it wrong that as a Democrat, I'm kind of hoping Spanberger gets defeated?

Obviously I'd rather the keep the seat in democratic hands, just not hers. Maybe a NOVA dem?
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2021, 01:00:37 PM »

Is it wrong that as a Democrat, I'm kind of hoping Spanberger gets defeated?

Obviously I'd rather the keep the seat in democratic hands, just not hers. Maybe a NOVA dem?

Nope. You're in fine company - I've heard many people express such a sentiment.
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Chips
Those Chips
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2022, 02:30:03 AM »

Youngkin won the district by a few points. It's a pure toss-up in that sense but would likely lean R if it were a wave.
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2022, 06:35:38 AM »

Tilt R.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
LVScreenssuck
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2022, 09:56:17 AM »

Lean D

Probably a toss-up this year, but likely to favor Democrats going forward
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