Anyone else stunned at how far right Florida has shifted?

[TodayJunior]

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

[TodayJunior]

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976. 

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

Miami-Dade and Palm Beach alone are >20% of Florida's 2020 electorate.  Swings/trends there are more than enough to offset the I-4 region for the foreseeable future.   

Depends on the growth trajectory. Here in Orlando we’re seeing a large amount of growth in all directions. We’ll still need another cycle to see if 2020 was a one time thing or not.

[TodayJunior]

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

COPE

What an insightful response. So stunning and brave. 🙄

[TodayJunior]

Duval county is more similar to Fulton, Mecklenburg counties than a average Florida county. Huge growth, alongside a reverse great migration has made Duval more Dem friendly in recent years. Even with the Navy presence in Jacksonville it is similar to Virginia Beach, and Norfolk  

Virginia Beach is probably the best comparison for Jax. I don’t see it becoming a Fulton, GA. It’s big, but not that big, and I think it maxes out around 55-58% Dem in future elections. It’s tough to see Duval voting to the left of Palm Beach. But if you looked at Orange County in 2004 when it was 50/50, no one would think it would be on par and just slightly right of Broward 16 years later.

[TodayJunior]

How far is "far right"? "Shifted dramatically to the right" "for almost two decades" ...?

In 2020, there were 23 states that voted to the right of Florida. Florida sure as hell isn't Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Wyoming. North Carolina was the only Trump state that voted more narrowly than Florida. And don't forget that the voters approved, by almost 61%, raising the minimum wage.

GWB won Florida in 2004 by a wider margin than Trump in 2020. Go all the way back to 1988, GHWB won almost 61%, and Florida was the first state that Dukakis triaged, viewing it as totally unwinnable.

Someone above spoke about the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race of 2018. But Scott only won by 0.13% and DeSantis only won by 0.40%. How are numbers like those indicative of a dramatic swing to the right? At the same time, Republicans lost FL-26 and FL-27, resulting in a delegation to the House of only 14 Rs to 13 Ds.

I'm not "stunned" by something that didn't happen.

It was 8 points  to the right of the country. FL would likely be won by 10 points whenever the GOP next wins the popular vote.

The demographics here are fairly inflexible. It’s very tough for one of the two major parties to get above 53-55% or below 45-47% (assuming a two-person race with no major third party of course). Even if democrats didn’t spend a dime here, it’s still going to be at most high-single digit margin for republicans. People are getting way to ahead of their skis on Florida lurching dramatically rightward.

The days of the state’s 1980’s-like margins are over, and the likelihood of that reoccurring is like chasing a unicorn. Sorry.

[TodayJunior]

I will also add that not having Florida in play makes it harder for Democrats to do anything. Eventually they will have to win there again somehow unless Democrats get their act together in places like Texas, Montana, and Arizona.

Is it though? Florida only went to trump by 3.3%. That’s hardly out of reach in a good year. I wish Dems wouldn’t throw in the towel here. Every statewide office sans Fried’s is Republican right now, and there’s no real accountability or checks and balances right now and we need it!

Republicans like to complain that Cali/NY/Illinois are one party states in complete disarray due to muh…..no accountability. All righty then….I’ll play that game. They need to look in the mirror in places like Texas/Florida/Deep South, etc. where they hardly are on firm ground when they argue they don’t have a seat at the table in solidly blue states.

I’d love to see an election like 1960 where almost all 50 states are in play.