Anyone else stunned at how far right Florida has shifted?
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  Anyone else stunned at how far right Florida has shifted?
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Author Topic: Anyone else stunned at how far right Florida has shifted?  (Read 2508 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: December 28, 2021, 06:25:46 PM »

5 years ago in 2016 Florida was the biggest swing state and the state everyone would always be in pins and needles for the results. Hillary was favored to win it up until Election Day.

3 years ago it appeared as if Andrew Guilium would be elected governor as he led in virtually every major poll leading up to Election Day.

In the last 3-5 years the state that was the biggest swing state for almost two decades has shifted dramatically to the right. Republicans have overtaken the registered voters over democrats and the states voted almost 9 points to the right of the county in 2020. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised to see desantis and Rubio win by close to 10 points next year.

Would you say Trump or Desantis played a bigger role in the states rightward shift or was it something else?
Because there hasn’t been a demographic change. The state has always had a high number of white people and people who moved from the northeast and Midwest along with a big Latino community and healthy black population in certain areas. So demographics is not the reason for the shift.
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2021, 07:17:39 PM »

The fact that DeSantis and Scott won in a year like 2018 shows you that Florida had already shifted pretty right. It was a +8 Dem year so Florida voted more than 8 points more Republican than the nation in 2018 which was pretty much how it voted in 2020.


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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2021, 12:56:30 AM »

I'm stunned that Democrats are targeting Rubio in a BIDEN midterm.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2021, 09:02:01 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2021, 09:14:20 AM by TodayJunior »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2021, 10:15:34 AM »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976. 

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

Miami-Dade and Palm Beach alone are >20% of Florida's 2020 electorate.  Swings/trends there are more than enough to offset the I-4 region for the foreseeable future.   
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BigSerg
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2021, 10:35:29 AM »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

COPE
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2021, 12:17:10 PM »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976. 

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

Miami-Dade and Palm Beach alone are >20% of Florida's 2020 electorate.  Swings/trends there are more than enough to offset the I-4 region for the foreseeable future.   

Depends on the growth trajectory. Here in Orlando we’re seeing a large amount of growth in all directions. We’ll still need another cycle to see if 2020 was a one time thing or not.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2021, 12:19:50 PM »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

COPE

What an insightful response. So stunning and brave. 🙄
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2021, 02:08:03 PM »

Duval county is more similar to Fulton, Mecklenburg counties than a average Florida county. Huge growth, alongside a reverse great migration has made Duval more Dem friendly in recent years. Even with the Navy presence in Jacksonville it is similar to Virginia Beach, and Norfolk   
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2021, 01:20:27 AM »

Duval county is more similar to Fulton, Mecklenburg counties than a average Florida county. Huge growth, alongside a reverse great migration has made Duval more Dem friendly in recent years. Even with the Navy presence in Jacksonville it is similar to Virginia Beach, and Norfolk  
Virginia Beach is probably the best comparison for Jax. I don’t see it becoming a Fulton, GA. It’s big, but not that big, and I think it maxes out around 55-58% Dem in future elections. It’s tough to see Duval voting to the left of Palm Beach. But if you looked at Orange County in 2004 when it was 50/50, no one would think it would be on par and just slightly right of Broward 16 years later.
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2021, 02:14:36 AM »

The warning signs were already showing by 2018, Scott only garnered 18k fewer votes in M-D than Trump did the first time while Nelson lost almost 150k Clinton 2016 votes. Compare with Crist/Scott seeing pretty much a wash in drop-off from Obama/Romney 2012 to the 2014 gov race. How does the FLDP find a way to make up lost ground with a demographic the GOP has consistently targeted under Trump?

For all the discussion of Florida trending red due to GOP gains with conservative Latinos, an equally important factor is the absolute collapse of the Democratic Party in the Big Bend and I-75 corridor since 2012. Do not let the 3rd-largest population in the nation fool you, FL has more than its share of rural whites. Florida's retirement communities powered Scott to re-election and in 2018 enabled him to unseat Nelson as much as improvement in South FL.

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Computer89
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2021, 03:31:13 AM »



To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.


This isn’t a great comparison given that Bush won FL by over 20 points in 1988 and it was considered stunning that it was close to begin with not that Bush won the state
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2022, 07:22:07 PM »

No. Even before it was clear which way Latino voters would trend, the increasing salience of generational politics meant storm clouds for the FDP. It’s only going to get worse for them; FL will eventually be redder than IA/OH even as they continue to trend Republican.
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MarkD
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2022, 09:30:20 AM »

How far is "far right"? "Shifted dramatically to the right" "for almost two decades" ...?

In 2020, there were 23 states that voted to the right of Florida. Florida sure as hell isn't Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Wyoming. North Carolina was the only Trump state that voted more narrowly than Florida. And don't forget that the voters approved, by almost 61%, raising the minimum wage.

GWB won Florida in 2004 by a wider margin than Trump in 2020. Go all the way back to 1988, GHWB won almost 61%, and Florida was the first state that Dukakis triaged, viewing it as totally unwinnable.

Someone above spoke about the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race of 2018. But Scott only won by 0.13% and DeSantis only won by 0.40%. How are numbers like those indicative of a dramatic swing to the right? At the same time, Republicans lost FL-26 and FL-27, resulting in a delegation to the House of only 14 Rs to 13 Ds.

I'm not "stunned" by something that didn't happen.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2022, 10:29:00 AM »

Yup, I'm being honest here.

Up until 2018 or 2020, I thought FL would become a Lean D state in the long run due to demographic shifts among Hispanics, and particularly the influx of Puerto Ricans. I remember latter being intensely discussed after Trump's elections and how the number of new residents would already flip the state from the 2016 presidential election. After the 2018 elections, my doubt begun to rise though I still wanted to believe in a fluke or just attribute everything to Scott running a strong campaign. 2020 for sure proved me wrong.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2022, 11:50:34 AM »

How far is "far right"? "Shifted dramatically to the right" "for almost two decades" ...?

In 2020, there were 23 states that voted to the right of Florida. Florida sure as hell isn't Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Wyoming. North Carolina was the only Trump state that voted more narrowly than Florida. And don't forget that the voters approved, by almost 61%, raising the minimum wage.

GWB won Florida in 2004 by a wider margin than Trump in 2020. Go all the way back to 1988, GHWB won almost 61%, and Florida was the first state that Dukakis triaged, viewing it as totally unwinnable.

Someone above spoke about the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race of 2018. But Scott only won by 0.13% and DeSantis only won by 0.40%. How are numbers like those indicative of a dramatic swing to the right? At the same time, Republicans lost FL-26 and FL-27, resulting in a delegation to the House of only 14 Rs to 13 Ds.

I'm not "stunned" by something that didn't happen.
It was 8 points  to the right of the country. FL would likely be won by 10 points whenever the GOP next wins the popular vote.
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jojoju1998
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2022, 02:15:39 PM »

Florida has always been Republican Leaning due to Cuban/Hispanic sentiment, Low tax mentality of the people who move in from other states,
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2022, 05:38:39 PM »

no.

In retrospect, that Rick Scott barely won 2014 and Gwen Graham won at all is amazing.

But really FDP dug this hole themselves.
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vileplume
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2022, 06:15:01 PM »

a few things to note: This is misleading at best.

While it is true that Miami-Dade county (which alone counts for 10% of the state), swung massively to the gop, it is unclear if they can replicate a -7 margin, which is on par with 2000-04 levels. Now, if they’re only losing Miami dade by a similar margin to W levels, one would expect Florida to be R+5 rather than R+3, right??

Well……what Miami dade is masking is the more “blue-ficationing” of central Florida, Tampa bay, and Jacksonville. Duval and Seminole flipped Democrat for the first time I think since 1976.  

The point is, if the trends in other parts of the state keep trending Democrat at the date they’re going, republicans will need to keep those Miami dade margins as thin as possible….tall order especially when the “Biden is second coming of Fidel Castro” isn’t going to work again.

One Other urban county that Dems need to watch, margins-wise, is palm beach. That could be unique to trump though, but the margins are decreasing for democrats it appears.


To my GOP friends, proceed with caution on your chances here in 2024. Don’t think you’ve got this one in the bag. 😀 trump wasn’t the first losing Republican incumbent to win Florida in modern history. 1992 comes to mind immediately. And then 1996 came.

But a big problem for Democrats is that a lot of the high growth counties are numerically piling on Republican voters. Take Sumter County for example Bush in '04 won it by a little over 8,000 votes, Trump in '20 won it by over 33,000. Even though this county did swing a bit to Biden percentagewise due to elderly voters swinging Dem, Trump still increased his numerical margin here by over 3,000 votes. It's quite probable this county will swing back right in 2024 and thus the raw vote margin the GOP gets out of here will jump by a large amount.

It's the growth in loyally GOP mid-sized counties like Sumter, Walton, Lake, Manatee, Lee, Nassau, Santa Rosa etc. that are causing the Democrats headaches not just Miami-Dade/Palm Beach/Osceola. Even St Johns County, which unlike the list above probably does have a bit of an underlying Dem trend, Trump still netted over 1,500 votes over Biden! In high growth areas % swings are misleading, you need the numerical margin to shrink which it literally isn't doing at all.
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MarkD
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« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2022, 08:39:06 AM »

How far is "far right"? "Shifted dramatically to the right" "for almost two decades" ...?

In 2020, there were 23 states that voted to the right of Florida. Florida sure as hell isn't Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Wyoming. North Carolina was the only Trump state that voted more narrowly than Florida. And don't forget that the voters approved, by almost 61%, raising the minimum wage.

GWB won Florida in 2004 by a wider margin than Trump in 2020. Go all the way back to 1988, GHWB won almost 61%, and Florida was the first state that Dukakis triaged, viewing it as totally unwinnable.

Someone above spoke about the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race of 2018. But Scott only won by 0.13% and DeSantis only won by 0.40%. How are numbers like those indicative of a dramatic swing to the right? At the same time, Republicans lost FL-26 and FL-27, resulting in a delegation to the House of only 14 Rs to 13 Ds.

I'm not "stunned" by something that didn't happen.
It was 8 points  to the right of the country. FL would likely be won by 10 points whenever the GOP next wins the popular vote.

But I still don't see anyone answering my first question: how far is "far right"? In 2020, there were 23 other states that voted further to the right than Florida. As I said, Trump's win in 2020 was narrower (3.36%) than Bush's win in 2004 (4.01%). Republicans have won the governorship six times in a row - Jeb Bush twice, Crist once, Scott twice, and now DeSantis - but the last win was the narrowest margin in all six of those races, only 0.40% compared to over 10% wins by Bush; Rick Scott's two wins at the governor's race was by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively, but DeSantis' win was only 0.40%. So can anyone explain how Florida is now "far right"?
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2022, 11:53:17 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2022, 11:57:27 AM by TodayJunior »

How far is "far right"? "Shifted dramatically to the right" "for almost two decades" ...?

In 2020, there were 23 states that voted to the right of Florida. Florida sure as hell isn't Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Wyoming. North Carolina was the only Trump state that voted more narrowly than Florida. And don't forget that the voters approved, by almost 61%, raising the minimum wage.

GWB won Florida in 2004 by a wider margin than Trump in 2020. Go all the way back to 1988, GHWB won almost 61%, and Florida was the first state that Dukakis triaged, viewing it as totally unwinnable.

Someone above spoke about the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race of 2018. But Scott only won by 0.13% and DeSantis only won by 0.40%. How are numbers like those indicative of a dramatic swing to the right? At the same time, Republicans lost FL-26 and FL-27, resulting in a delegation to the House of only 14 Rs to 13 Ds.

I'm not "stunned" by something that didn't happen.
It was 8 points  to the right of the country. FL would likely be won by 10 points whenever the GOP next wins the popular vote.
The demographics here are fairly inflexible. It’s very tough for one of the two major parties to get above 53-55% or below 45-47% (assuming a two-person race with no major third party of course). Even if democrats didn’t spend a dime here, it’s still going to be at most high-single digit margin for republicans. People are getting way to ahead of their skis on Florida lurching dramatically rightward.

The days of the state’s 1980’s-like margins are over, and the likelihood of that reoccurring is like chasing a unicorn. Sorry.
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« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2022, 08:03:12 PM »

I mean telling someone c. 2005 that a Republican won Florida by 2.5% is probably less shocking than telling them ''Virginia shifted 18 points to the left and Loudoun county by 37%."
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2022, 03:46:32 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2022, 11:01:12 AM by Person Man »

I mean, the landlords have noticed. Once people start acting like they have money (like voting Republican), people are going to start treating them like they have money. Your typical $1200 two bedroom apartment in a Middle Class neighborhood in now like $2000-2200. The typical quarter-million dollar 3 bedroom ranch home or townhome in Jacksonville is now a third million dollar home. And my new place is $100 cheaper (in suburban Virginia) a month than a similar one in my old complex.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2022, 06:44:03 PM »

Somewhat surprised given Biden's PV margin, but it's basically been a Lean R state since the Solid South era ended.  Dems got too excited about it after 1996/2000.

It does look like it went from Lean to Likely R since 2018, but today's retirees are obviously more right-leaning than the very oldest who remember FDR. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2022, 11:03:34 AM »

I will also add that not having Florida in play makes it harder for Democrats to do anything. Eventually they will have to win there again somehow unless Democrats get their act together in places like Texas, Montana, and Arizona.
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