2021 population estimates

[bagelman]

If the 2020-21 population change estimates are accurate and reflect population changes throughout the decade, this will be the reapportionment map we get in 2031:



This obviously won't actually happen. Based on a post by vosem on AAD.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona coming back with vengeance lol.

It seems like the same states are being over and underestimated again

[_.]

There is lots of discussion about this topic on this thread, already covering the estimates

Another version of that map would be this one, also incorporating Q2 of 2020 in estimates

Obviously, 2021 was a very unique year and it's very unlikely that each of the trends we saw will continue onwards into the decade, much less intensify, but just to show the extent of the changes I thought extrapolating the 2021 estimates forward by ten years and then conducting a reapportionment would be interesting.

This is what the electoral college would look like after such changes:

Image Link

GAIN FOUR: TX
GAIN TWO: FL, AZ
GAIN ONE: GA, NC, TN, UT, ID
LOSE ONE: PA, MN, RI
LOSE TWO: IL
LOSE FOUR: CA, NY


LAST FIFTEEN SEATS ALLOCATED:

421. CA-47
422. FL-30
423. TX-41
424. AL-7
425. NJ-12
426. WI-8
427. MI-13
428. GA-15
429. OR-6
430. MA-9
431. TN-10
432. NC-15
433. CA-48
434. AZ-11
435. TX-42
---
436. DE-2
437. FL-31
438. PA-17
439. NY-23
440. RI-2
441. CA-49
442. NV-5
443. MN-8
444. OK-6
445. SC-8
446. WA-11
447. VA-12
448. TX-43
449. IL-16
450. OH-16


Potential Dark Horses for a seat gain:
DE, NV, OK, SC, WA, VA, MO, IN

Potential Dark Horses for a seat loss:
MA, OR, MI, WI, NJ, AL, LA, OH

Vosem's map is also interesting though, as it takes into account the growth and decline acceleration over FY 2021

[Tintrlvr]

Arizona coming back with vengeance lol.

It seems like the same states are being over and underestimated again

It seems like they just started with the 2019 estimates, totally ignoring the actual Census results. Pretty clear incompetence at the Census Bureau.

[DPKdebator]

Interesting how Massachusetts declined in the past year after strong growth during the 2010s (which followed four decades of only modest growth). If I had to guess, the state is approaching "full capacity" since the metropolitan core of the state was already mostly built up, and it is only being added onto with apartments or some houses here and there without many full-scale neighborhood projects. The state has had natural growth problems for a while, which can largely be chalked up to Catholic families having less kids than they used to, so a slowdown of inward migration is going to move the state to its "natural" state of slight decline.

[bagelman]

Arizona coming back with vengeance lol.

It seems like the same states are being over and underestimated again

It seems like they just started with the 2019 estimates, totally ignoring the actual Census results. Pretty clear incompetence at the Census Bureau.

Yep. Hopefully we'll have saner estimates later on.

[Zaybay]

Its kinda sad just how obviously off these estimates are. They could've at least tried to make them somewhat believable.