Why hasn't Rankin/DeSoto, MS trend Democratic?

[Suburbia]

These are wealthy areas.

Why?

[Roll Roons]

Actually they both have. Especially the latter because of Black population growth.

Biden put up the best Democratic performance since Carter in both counties.

[H. Ross Peron]

They are extremely racist.

[Suburbia]

They are extremely racist.

How? Obama won Jefferson, AL, which contains the wealthy Mountain Brook, probably wealthier than Waukesha, WI and Williamson, TN, and that's saying something for Alabama!

[GALeftist]

They are extremely racist.

How? Obama won Jefferson, AL, which contains the wealthy Mountain Brook, probably wealthier than Waukesha, WI and Williamson, TN, and that's saying something for Alabama!

Well, sure, but Jefferson's median household is like $37k, while Waukesha is at $72k and Williamson is at $88k. I'd bet that Mountain Brook itself voted against Obama. Anyways, racism is a big reason. In these parts of the nation, people see the Republicans as the white party and the Democrats as the black party; hopefully this is declining. Also, as has been mentioned, these counties, especially Rankin, have not diversified to the extent that has happened in similarly wealthy counties in California, the DMV, the Northeast, or even Georgia.

[If my soul was made of stone]

They are extremely racist.

How? Obama won Jefferson, AL, which contains the wealthy Mountain Brook, probably wealthier than Waukesha, WI and Williamson, TN, and that's saying something for Alabama!

Well, sure, but Jefferson's median household is like $37k, while Waukesha is at $72k and Williamson is at $88k. I'd bet that Mountain Brook itself voted against Obama. Anyways, racism is a big reason. In these parts of the nation, people see the Republicans as the white party and the Democrats as the black party; hopefully this is declining. Also, as has been mentioned, these counties, especially Rankin, have not diversified to the extent that has happened in similarly wealthy counties in California, the DMV, the Northeast, or even Georgia.

A little more than a third of Jefferson County consists of two-thirds Black Birmingham, and smaller Black cities like Adamsville, Bessemer, and Center Point, and mixed inner-ring suburbs like Adamsville and Homewood are also a non-negligible portion. The rich white suburbs are too diffuse and don't produce enough raw votes for the GOP to offset 70-point Democratic margins in a city of 200,000.

Trump won Mountain Brook (perhaps best known as the hometown of Natalee Holloway) 65-33. Jefferson County sans Birmingham is Trump 54-44. Jefferson County sans all Black-majority municipalities is 64% white and Trump 58-40.

[Sol]

They are extremely racist.

How? Obama won Jefferson, AL, which contains the wealthy Mountain Brook, probably wealthier than Waukesha, WI and Williamson, TN, and that's saying something for Alabama!

Well, sure, but Jefferson's median household is like $37k, while Waukesha is at $72k and Williamson is at $88k. I'd bet that Mountain Brook itself voted against Obama. Anyways, racism is a big reason. In these parts of the nation, people see the Republicans as the white party and the Democrats as the black party; hopefully this is declining. Also, as has been mentioned, these counties, especially Rankin, have not diversified to the extent that has happened in similarly wealthy counties in California, the DMV, the Northeast, or even Georgia.

This is a Bronz threaf

[It’s so Joever]

They also are both more exurban than Suburban in some ways. Madison MS would be a better barometer of Southern Suburbs if you wanted something from MS.

[Sol]

They also are both more exurban than Suburban in some ways. Madison MS would be a better barometer of Southern Suburbs if you wanted something from MS.

I don't know if that's correct wrt: Rankin (Del Tachi correct me if I'm wrong.) The city of Pearl is directly across the Pearl River from Downtown, unlike Madison, which is a bit further away.

[Del Tachi]

They also are both more exurban than Suburban in some ways. Madison MS would be a better barometer of Southern Suburbs if you wanted something from MS.

I don't know if that's correct wrt: Rankin (Del Tachi correct me if I'm wrong.) The city of Pearl is directly across the Pearl River from Downtown, unlike Madison, which is a bit further away.

Yes, Pearl is directly over the Hwy 80 bridge from Downtown Jackson.  However, the area of Pearl most adjacent to the river is a large, low-density retail area (the MS Braves stadium is also here!)  The major residential areas of Pearl are some 1950-80s built neighborhoods further down Hwy 80, and those areas are old enough now to not be considered very desirable.

The "suburban/exurban" gradient isn't really that well-defined in Greater Jackson just because the overall metro is so low-density.  If you base the distinction on age alone, then Pearl and Ridgeland are the oldest developments (i..e, pre-1990); Madison and Flowood of mostly 1990s-2000s vintage; with Gluckstadt and the outer-fringes of Flowood/Brandon being the new, post-GFC exurbs.  

I was surprised when researching this post that the City of Ridgeland, based on 2020 Census numbers, is now majority-minority.  Pearl is actually still Whiter than I expected, but its Black population has been growing (as has Gluckstadt's.)  Both Madison and Rankin are getting more diverse, but Madison appears to be doing so at a faster pace.

[NOVA Green]

They are extremely racist.

How? Obama won Jefferson, AL, which contains the wealthy Mountain Brook, probably wealthier than Waukesha, WI and Williamson, TN, and that's saying something for Alabama!

Well, sure, but Jefferson's median household is like $37k, while Waukesha is at $72k and Williamson is at $88k. I'd bet that Mountain Brook itself voted against Obama. Anyways, racism is a big reason. In these parts of the nation, people see the Republicans as the white party and the Democrats as the black party; hopefully this is declining. Also, as has been mentioned, these counties, especially Rankin, have not diversified to the extent that has happened in similarly wealthy counties in California, the DMV, the Northeast, or even Georgia.

A little more than a third of Jefferson County consists of two-thirds Black Birmingham, and smaller Black cities like Adamsville, Bessemer, and Center Point, and mixed inner-ring suburbs like Adamsville and Homewood are also a non-negligible portion. The rich white suburbs are too diffuse and don't produce enough raw votes for the GOP to offset 70-point Democratic margins in a city of 200,000.

Trump won Mountain Brook (perhaps best known as the hometown of Natalee Holloway) 65-33. Jefferson County sans Birmingham is Trump 54-44. Jefferson County sans all Black-majority municipalities is 64% white and Trump 58-40.

Well phrased and effectively summarizes the 2020 election results.

I broke down the Jefferson County numbers a year or so back for anyone interested:

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

Hi Extreme Republican and apologies for my delayed response.

These numbers are Jefferson County precincts only.

I do have Shelby County precincts (Although I have not coded them by Municipality in the '16 GE, '17 AL-SEN-SE, nor the '20 GE).

Shelby County unfortunately bundles absentees into one bucket (Unlike Jefferson County), making precinct level returns sketch in the extreme....

If you want I can try to code the '16 and '20 GE PRES results for Shelby County by Municipality, but it is almost like a question I asked elsewhere RE:2020 GE results about trying to code Maine GE results "By Precinct /Ward" for the handful of larger Cities in that State....

Let me know, and will take a look if you are interested.

Unfortunately, Shelby County does one of my pet peeves when it comes to Election Reporting for many Counties throughout the US, and not redistributing votes back to the precinct level.   

[Devils30]

DeSoto went from 72-27 Bush in 2004 to 61-37 Trump in 2020, clear Democratic trend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

DeSoto went from 72-27 Bush in 2004 to 61-37 Trump in 2020, clear Democratic trend.

This is a good point.
Ds have also picked up a State House seat there as well, recently.