All about Ukraine. Questions and answers

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

How is the situation on Crimea currently? I know the majority of the population there are ethnic Russians, how deep is the support for the Russian annexation there at the moment?

If in 2014, the majority of Crimean residents really preferred Russia (as much as I would not like to, but I must admit it). Now, as I said, the number of pro-Ukrainian people is growing every day. Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars have always wanted to see Crimea as part of Ukraine, but now even many ethnic Russians want Crimea to return to Ukraine. Russia is turning Crimea into a large military base, and most locals are not happy about it. By the way, it was recently decided to demolish the village (about 100 houses) to build a road. There was another option - to build a road near the military base of the Russian Federation, but the Ministry of Defense was not satisfied with this option, so people were simply thrown out into the street, not even offering them alternative housing.

Of course, I do not have any opinion poll results to show this, because Russia does not know what "freedom" is and what "honest sociology" is.

LMAO, you are really saying that Crimeans becoming more pro-Ukraine? Haha, sure.




By the way, how many people did flee from Crimea to Ukraine? Ukraine should have these stats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You didn't really answered. Instead a lot of strange takes. Yes, people in Russia complains about their living standards. But living standard is much higher in Russia then in Ukraine. By a lot. And literally all Crimeans experienced it.

Yawn. Whatever.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What is Yulia Tymoshenko doing these days?

She lost her last chance in 2019. Now she has almost no influence and will not have it in the future. Recent opinion polls show that while Razumkov and Poroshenko are beating Zelensky in the second round, Boyko and Tymoshenko losing to him.

Now she is a pure heroine of memes because of her unnecessary plastic surgeries, which make her look like a wax figure.

Do you think Poroshenko runs 4 prez again in 2024? And if so, what are his chances? I would assume not very high.

Poroshenko will definitely run again. And I will enthusiastically vote for him again.

If a year ago, I would say that his chances are quite slim, now I would say that he has about 60% chance of defeating Zelensky. I am sure that due to Zelensky's incompetence and scandals, he will lose to almost anyone in 2024.

Recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky, while Tymoshenko and pro-Russian Boyko are losing to him.

It's not true. Only 1 (one) single poll showed that Poroh is winning against Ze. Moreover in other polls he is doing even slightly worse then Tymoshenko in the 2nd round, though both still losing. Perhaps, this single poll caught the new trend, but I doubt.



Razumkov, though, seems to have a real edge over Ze on average.

With that said, as it is for now, only Poroh has real chance to reach the 2nd round. But it's more than 2 years until next election. A lot can and will happen.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

Well, let's go back even further

In order not to confuse anyone, let's divide the opinions polls by the companies by which it was made

1. Razumkov Centre (5 most recent)
Dec 17-22, 2021 50.1-49.9 Poroshenko
Nov 11-17, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Oct 23-27, 2021 56-44 Zelensky
Jul 29 - Aug 4, 2021 61-39 Zelensky
Jun 11-16, 2021 60-40 Zelensky

2. Rating (3 most recent)
Nov 10-13, 2021 59-41 Zelensky
Jun 30 - Jul 3, 2021 65-35 Zelensky
May 16-18, 2021 68-32 Zelensky

3. SOCIS (3 most recent)
Oct 29 - Nov 4, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Jun 25-30, 2021 60-40 Zelensky
Apr 8-12, 2021 56-44 Zelensky

The last surveys of other companies were conducted a long time ago or the total number of surveys conducted by them was less than 3 (I could have counted incorrectly, so you can correct me). I think the trend here is clear and Zelensky's support is slowly but surely falling. The fact is that it is worth remembering  Poroshenko is winning or losing now is not because of his popularity/unpopularity, but because of Zelensky's popularity/unpopularuty.

Poroshenko's chances are much higher than Tymoshenko's, because he is much more likely to go to the second round than she is. Voters of Tymoshenko and Zelensky have similar ideologies and similar values, so it will be easy to lure them to one of the candidates who would most likely be Zelensky. Instead, the voters of Poroshenko and Zelensky are people with polar political positions.

And yes, if we hold elections now, I would say that there is such a picture:
In the case of a fight between Zelensky and Razumkov, Razumkov has about a 55% chance of winning. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have a 50% chance of winning. While in the case of the fight between Zelensky and Boyko, the former has about 75% chance of winning.

Well, I somewhat agree with that, but your initial claim was totally different. You said that recent polls (plural) showed that Poroh is wining, while all but one shows that Ze is winning by ~10.

As I said, Ze is, indeed, losing ground. Against all candidates. But, if anything, Poroh is the weakest one head-2-head. Poroh has been always losing to Tymoshenko and is literally the only one who is sometimes losing to openly pro-Russian Boyko, albeit there are no recent h2h between them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election

Poroshenko is probably the most hated politician in Ukraine, certainly in top 2 most hated. With that said, Poroshenko has quite high floor, which makes him most likely Ze's opponent in the 2nd round.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here is my question:

Why do vaccination rate is so low in Ukraine? People here make fun of Russia's low vaccination rate (rightly so), but anyway we have ~50% higher than Ukraine, 45% fully vaxxed  in RU vs Ukraine's 30%. This is despite the fact that Ukraine has good access to Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, J&J and (Chinese) Sinovac.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Andriy what you do make of Ukrainian air power and air forces versus what Russia is bringing to bear?

From this article, that is honestly one of the best in English that I read.
https://ig.ft.com/how-serious-is-putin-about-russia-invading-ukraine/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

And my question to Andriy is, do you honestly think, that Putin would dare to invade Ukraine with Trump in WH?