All about Ukraine. Questions and answers

[😥]

You mentioned that Odesa still has a large Jewish population, and iirc Zelensky is Jewish. Would you say that Jewish culture in Ukraine today is more vibrant than in Russia, Poland, and other neighboring countries? If so, what accounts for this?

This is difficult to assess, but it is probably true that Jewish culture is more vibrant in Ukraine than in Poland or Russia.

The Jewish population of Poland is 8,000 (0.02% of the total). Russia's Jewish population is 156,000 (0.11% of the total). The Jewish population of Ukraine is 103 thousand (0.21% of the total). Many Jews assimilated and began to indicate themselves as a representatives of different nationality, and many children from mixed marriages were considered to be of a different nationality than the Jewish one (including thanks to the USSR). Therefore, the Jewish population is actually higher.

Odesa, rather, has absorbed Jewish culture and now there are representatives of other nationalities who are carriers of Jewish culture, so it is quite active there.

In many ways, compactness contributes to the greater spread of Jewish culture in Ukraine than in Russia or Poland. While in the two above-mentioned states the bearers of Jewish culture are mostly Jews, in Ukraine the bearers of Jewish culture, as I have already said, are Jews and many Odesans who are not Jews. So, it is because of the compactness of the settlement of its bearers that Jewish culture in Ukraine can be preserved.

[😥]

Christmas in Ukraine

According to a long-standing tradition, the Christmas celebration begins on the evening of January 6. The evening before Christmas is called the Holy or Christmas Eve. On this day, all family members should be at home, helping each other during the holiday preparations.

According to the custom, before the holidays the housewives carefully cleaned the house, whitewashed the apartments, laid new or clean tablecloths and towels, tried to prepare new clothes for all family members. People made holiday candles from the wax of their own apiary, ordering special orders and prayers.

At dawn on January 6, the hosts began to prepare twelve dishes, symbolizing the twelve apostles. Since Christmas is preceded by a long forty-day fast, all the dishes of the Christmas Eve must be fasting.

The main Christmas dish is kutia - wheat or barley porridge mixed with raisins, poppy seeds, honey and nuts. Also on the table must be uzvar - compote of dried fruits, mostly pears and apples

An important Christmas rite for Holy Evening is decorating the table. Traditionally, it is covered with fresh hay or straw, a little grain is poured on top and covered with a tablecloth. In the corners of the table under the tablecloth put a clove of garlic, which will protect the family from disease and evil forces.

In a place of honor in the house should be a didukh - rye, wheat or oat sheaf, which symbolizes the harvest and prosperity, and is a talisman of the family. The tradition of putting didukh during the Holy Supper dates back to the times of paganism.

It is necessary to sit at the festive table with the appearance of the first star, which symbolizes the birth of Jesus. Holy Evening traditionally begins with a prayer for the health of the living and the repose of the dead. The host is the first to sit down at the table, light a Christmas candle and bless the dinner, then taste kutia and give it to the family.

After kutia, you can move on to other dishes. The set of dishes for the Holy Supper is different in different regions of Ukraine, but their number remains constant. You should never swear or argue during a meal at the table.

Christmas in Ukraine, according to pagan tradition, is associated with the worship of ancestors and honoring the souls of the dead. Therefore, after the Holy Evening, Ukrainians leave a spoonful of each dish for the spirits of deceased relatives (in some regions people do not clean the table at all or put kutia on the windowsill for the dead).

On the morning of January 7, people joyfully greet with the phrase "Christ is born!", And in response hear - "Praise him!". On this day it is customary to go to church for the holiday prayer, as well as to visit relatives.

Unlike Christmas Eve, Christmas feasts are no longer limited to fasting food.

The obligatory Christmas tradition is kolyadka, a custom in which groups of kolyadnykiv (like carolers) praise their hosts with songs. Wishes of happiness, health and prosperity are often heard in such songs. At the end of the singing, the hosts bring sweets or money to the kolyadnuky (carolers)

Traditionally, children, adult boys and girls sing kolyadka in Ukraine. But they do not start caroling in all places at the same time: in Pokuttia the children go to carol already on Holy Evening; in Slobozhanshchyna and in the Hutsulshchyna - on the first day of Christmas, after the church service is over;
in Western Podillya - in the morning on the second day of holidays. It is believed that the more carolers visit the house, the more generous the year will be for the family.

Walking with a vertep is an ancient and unique Christmas custom. The vertep is a mobile miniature puppet theater, placed in a special box (small box), which showed performances divided into two parts. In the first, scenes related to the birth of Christ and biblical characters. The second (secular) - described stories from people's lives.

An indispensable attribute of the vertep is a Christmas star. It is considered a symbol of joy, it is Christmas star who carries the news of the birth of Jesus.

It is worth noting that the traditions of celebrating Christmas in Ukraine are not limited to a static vertep with dolls. The living vertep, in which living people play the roles of various characters, has also become very popular in the country.

Another tradition of celebrating Christmas in Ukraine is divination. It was believed that this day is the truest, because the boundaries between the worlds of the living and the dead become the thinnest, and otherworldly forces penetrate the human world, revealing the mysteries of the future.

Divination was practiced mainly by girls. They foretold a good harvest, weather, wealth, and most of all - marriage.

In addition, Ukrainians follow the ancient tradition of reconciling on this day, forgiving each other's insults.

The tradition of taking the Holy Dinner to one's godparents is still preserved. Usually in the basket are kytia, cakes and candy. Godparents, in turn, give children money and sweets. In addition, wealthy people visit shelters and give presents to the poor at Christmas.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What is your political assessment of Vitali Klitschko, the professional boxer of long German residence who along with his brother became famous around here for his - often parodied - TV ads for Ferrero's "Milk Slice" confectionery?

[😥]

What is your political assessment of Vitali Klitschko, the professional boxer of long German residence who along with his brother became famous around here for his - often parodied - TV ads for Ferrero's "Milk Slice" confectionery?

Compared to the last mayors of the capital, he does his job quite well. Kyiv has changed for the better over the years of his rule, but of course there is still a lot of work to be done.

Klytschko has high ambitions, but his chances of becoming President are very slim. Mainly because most do not take him seriously due to numerous mistakes in almost all of his speech and funny incidents with him. However, it should be noted that he is quite self-critical and recently published a book "Who has not heard, will see" with his clumsy quotes.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What is Yulia Tymoshenko doing these days?

She lost her last chance in 2019. Now she has almost no influence and will not have it in the future. Recent opinion polls show that while Razumkov and Poroshenko are beating Zelensky in the second round, Boyko and Tymoshenko losing to him.

Now she is a pure heroine of memes because of her unnecessary plastic surgeries, which make her look like a wax figure.

Do you think Poroshenko runs 4 prez again in 2024? And if so, what are his chances? I would assume not very high.

Poroshenko will definitely run again. And I will enthusiastically vote for him again.

If a year ago, I would say that his chances are quite slim, now I would say that he has about 60% chance of defeating Zelensky. I am sure that due to Zelensky's incompetence and scandals, he will lose to almost anyone in 2024.

Recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky, while Tymoshenko and pro-Russian Boyko are losing to him.

It's not true. Only 1 (one) single poll showed that Poroh is winning against Ze. Moreover in other polls he is doing even slightly worse then Tymoshenko in the 2nd round, though both still losing. Perhaps, this single poll caught the new trend, but I doubt.



Razumkov, though, seems to have a real edge over Ze on average.

With that said, as it is for now, only Poroh has real chance to reach the 2nd round. But it's more than 2 years until next election. A lot can and will happen.

[😥]

What is Yulia Tymoshenko doing these days?

She lost her last chance in 2019. Now she has almost no influence and will not have it in the future. Recent opinion polls show that while Razumkov and Poroshenko are beating Zelensky in the second round, Boyko and Tymoshenko losing to him.

Now she is a pure heroine of memes because of her unnecessary plastic surgeries, which make her look like a wax figure.

Do you think Poroshenko runs 4 prez again in 2024? And if so, what are his chances? I would assume not very high.

Poroshenko will definitely run again. And I will enthusiastically vote for him again.

If a year ago, I would say that his chances are quite slim, now I would say that he has about 60% chance of defeating Zelensky. I am sure that due to Zelensky's incompetence and scandals, he will lose to almost anyone in 2024.

Recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky, while Tymoshenko and pro-Russian Boyko are losing to him.

It's not true. Only 1 (one) single poll showed that Poroh is winning against Ze. Moreover in other polls he is doing even slightly worse then Tymoshenko in the 2nd round, though both still losing. Perhaps, this single poll caught the new trend, but I doubt.

Razumkov, though, seems to have a real edge over Ze on average.

With that said, as it is for now, only Poroh has real chance to reach the 2nd round. But it's more than 2 years until next election. A lot can and will happen.

1. Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

2. I am in close contact with "European Solidarity" headquarters in my city. And I saw data from internal surveys (mostly only in my city/region, but anyway). These data show that Poroshenko is winning over Zelensky, regardless of whether you want to believe it or not

Note. I'm not saying that Zelensky has no chance. And if the election is held now, Zelensky's chances are 50/50, as is Poroshenko's, but if I had to guess, I would say that Zelensky still has a small advantage.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

[BigSerg]

What is Yulia Tymoshenko doing these days?

She lost her last chance in 2019. Now she has almost no influence and will not have it in the future. Recent opinion polls show that while Razumkov and Poroshenko are beating Zelensky in the second round, Boyko and Tymoshenko losing to him.

Now she is a pure heroine of memes because of her unnecessary plastic surgeries, which make her look like a wax figure.

Do you think Poroshenko runs 4 prez again in 2024? And if so, what are his chances? I would assume not very high.

Poroshenko will definitely run again. And I will enthusiastically vote for him again.

If a year ago, I would say that his chances are quite slim, now I would say that he has about 60% chance of defeating Zelensky. I am sure that due to Zelensky's incompetence and scandals, he will lose to almost anyone in 2024.

Recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky, while Tymoshenko and pro-Russian Boyko are losing to him.

It's not true. Only 1 (one) single poll showed that Poroh is winning against Ze. Moreover in other polls he is doing even slightly worse then Tymoshenko in the 2nd round, though both still losing. Perhaps, this single poll caught the new trend, but I doubt.



Razumkov, though, seems to have a real edge over Ze on average.

With that said, as it is for now, only Poroh has real chance to reach the 2nd round. But it's more than 2 years until next election. A lot can and will happen.

It is extremely telling that the pro-Russian party still gets 35-40% of the vote despite the suppression of Russian minority voters. That percentage would be much higher with Donbass and Crimean voters, АndriуValeriovych's false narrative collapses in the face of reality.

[😥]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

Well, let's go back even further

In order not to confuse anyone, let's divide the opinions polls by the companies by which it was made

1. Razumkov Centre (5 most recent)
Dec 17-22, 2021 50.1-49.9 Poroshenko
Nov 11-17, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Oct 23-27, 2021 56-44 Zelensky
Jul 29 - Aug 4, 2021 61-39 Zelensky
Jun 11-16, 2021 60-40 Zelensky

2. Rating (3 most recent)
Nov 10-13, 2021 59-41 Zelensky
Jun 30 - Jul 3, 2021 65-35 Zelensky
May 16-18, 2021 68-32 Zelensky

3. SOCIS (3 most recent)
Oct 29 - Nov 4, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Jun 25-30, 2021 60-40 Zelensky
Apr 8-12, 2021 56-44 Zelensky

The last surveys of other companies were conducted a long time ago or the total number of surveys conducted by them was less than 3 (I could have counted incorrectly, so you can correct me). I think the trend here is clear and Zelensky's support is slowly but surely falling. The fact is that it is worth remembering  Poroshenko is winning or losing now is not because of his popularity/unpopularity, but because of Zelensky's popularity/unpopularuty.

Poroshenko's chances are much higher than Tymoshenko's, because he is much more likely to go to the second round than she is. Voters of Tymoshenko and Zelensky have similar ideologies and similar values, so it will be easy to lure them to one of the candidates who would most likely be Zelensky. Instead, the voters of Poroshenko and Zelensky are people with polar political positions.

And yes, if we hold elections now, I would say that there is such a picture:
In the case of a fight between Zelensky and Razumkov, Razumkov has about a 55% chance of winning. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have a 50% chance of winning. While in the case of the fight between Zelensky and Boyko, the former has about 75% chance of winning.

[😥]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

АndriуValeriovych is always spouting bullsh**t and fake news (easily verifiable with a quick Google search). But users of this forum seem to believe any BS he says just because he is Ukrainian.

Who is the worst person in the world? Of course, AndriyValeriovych. Yeah, I know, BigSerg, that I'm Nazi and a fascist and I know that Ukrainians eat Russain-speaking babies.

Try to be more creative, try to make up some fables of your own, and not just repeat the fakes of dirty Kremlin propaganda

[😥]

What is Yulia Tymoshenko doing these days?

She lost her last chance in 2019. Now she has almost no influence and will not have it in the future. Recent opinion polls show that while Razumkov and Poroshenko are beating Zelensky in the second round, Boyko and Tymoshenko losing to him.

Now she is a pure heroine of memes because of her unnecessary plastic surgeries, which make her look like a wax figure.

Do you think Poroshenko runs 4 prez again in 2024? And if so, what are his chances? I would assume not very high.

Poroshenko will definitely run again. And I will enthusiastically vote for him again.

If a year ago, I would say that his chances are quite slim, now I would say that he has about 60% chance of defeating Zelensky. I am sure that due to Zelensky's incompetence and scandals, he will lose to almost anyone in 2024.

Recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky, while Tymoshenko and pro-Russian Boyko are losing to him.

It's not true. Only 1 (one) single poll showed that Poroh is winning against Ze. Moreover in other polls he is doing even slightly worse then Tymoshenko in the 2nd round, though both still losing. Perhaps, this single poll caught the new trend, but I doubt.

Photo

Razumkov, though, seems to have a real edge over Ze on average.

With that said, as it is for now, only Poroh has real chance to reach the 2nd round. But it's more than 2 years until next election. A lot can and will happen.

It is extremely telling that the pro-Russian party still gets 35-40% of the vote despite the suppression of Russian minority voters. That percentage would be much higher with Donbass and Crimean voters, АndriуValeriovych's false narrative collapses in the face of reality.

I would answer that if it were not asked by a Kremlin agent or not a very smart person like you

[Conservatopia]

Certain posters would have supported the invasion of the Sudetenland in 1939 because "Czechoslovakia is not a real country" and "German speakers are being oppressed" and "the Czech government came to power in an illegitimate manner".

[BigSerg]

Certain posters would have supported the invasion of the Sudetenland in 1939 because "Czechoslovakia is not a real country" and "German speakers are being oppressed" and "the Czech government came to power in an illegitimate manner".

Literally the worst example in the world. In fact, Czechoslovakia was not a real country and, in fact, dissolved precisely because of that

[Conservatopia]

Certain posters would have supported the invasion of the Sudetenland in 1939 because "Czechoslovakia is not a real country" and "German speakers are being oppressed" and "the Czech government came to power in an illegitimate manner".

Literally the worst example in the world. In fact, Czechoslovakia was not a real country and, in fact, dissolved precisely because of that

Hey I'm not saying you're a Nazi - I'm just saying you would have liked the Nazis.

[KaiserDave]

SmallSerg and to a lesser extent Russian Bear are ruining this wonderful thread with their inane nonsense. Kindly shoo!

Anyway, this thread is fantastic. I have always remembered Orthodox Christmas on Jan 7 because Jan 7 is my birthday!


Andriy do you feel that a possible invasion is now less likely because of Russia being busy in Kazakhstan?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

Well, let's go back even further

In order not to confuse anyone, let's divide the opinions polls by the companies by which it was made

1. Razumkov Centre (5 most recent)
Dec 17-22, 2021 50.1-49.9 Poroshenko
Nov 11-17, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Oct 23-27, 2021 56-44 Zelensky
Jul 29 - Aug 4, 2021 61-39 Zelensky
Jun 11-16, 2021 60-40 Zelensky

2. Rating (3 most recent)
Nov 10-13, 2021 59-41 Zelensky
Jun 30 - Jul 3, 2021 65-35 Zelensky
May 16-18, 2021 68-32 Zelensky

3. SOCIS (3 most recent)
Oct 29 - Nov 4, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Jun 25-30, 2021 60-40 Zelensky
Apr 8-12, 2021 56-44 Zelensky

The last surveys of other companies were conducted a long time ago or the total number of surveys conducted by them was less than 3 (I could have counted incorrectly, so you can correct me). I think the trend here is clear and Zelensky's support is slowly but surely falling. The fact is that it is worth remembering  Poroshenko is winning or losing now is not because of his popularity/unpopularity, but because of Zelensky's popularity/unpopularuty.

Poroshenko's chances are much higher than Tymoshenko's, because he is much more likely to go to the second round than she is. Voters of Tymoshenko and Zelensky have similar ideologies and similar values, so it will be easy to lure them to one of the candidates who would most likely be Zelensky. Instead, the voters of Poroshenko and Zelensky are people with polar political positions.

And yes, if we hold elections now, I would say that there is such a picture:
In the case of a fight between Zelensky and Razumkov, Razumkov has about a 55% chance of winning. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have a 50% chance of winning. While in the case of the fight between Zelensky and Boyko, the former has about 75% chance of winning.

Well, I somewhat agree with that, but your initial claim was totally different. You said that recent polls (plural) showed that Poroh is wining, while all but one shows that Ze is winning by ~10.

As I said, Ze is, indeed, losing ground. Against all candidates. But, if anything, Poroh is the weakest one head-2-head. Poroh has been always losing to Tymoshenko and is literally the only one who is sometimes losing to openly pro-Russian Boyko, albeit there are no recent h2h between them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election

Poroshenko is probably the most hated politician in Ukraine, certainly in top 2 most hated. With that said, Poroshenko has quite high floor, which makes him most likely Ze's opponent in the 2nd round.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here is my question:

Why do vaccination rate is so low in Ukraine? People here make fun of Russia's low vaccination rate (rightly so), but anyway we have ~50% higher than Ukraine, 45% fully vaxxed  in RU vs Ukraine's 30%. This is despite the fact that Ukraine has good access to Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, J&J and (Chinese) Sinovac.

[😥]

Yawn. You said that "recent opinion polls show that in the second round, Razumkov (former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada) and Poroshenko are defeating Zelensky" which is literally not true for Poroh. He wins only in a single poll, yet most recent poll. It's true about Razumkov, though.

Don't you see that with each poll, Poroshenko's percentages is only growing and Zelensky's is falling?

Not really. And it's true about all the candidates, but, perhaps, Boyko - Ze support just has eroded. But your claim was that Poroh is winning and is doing better than Tymoshenko. Aside from the single poll, Tymoshenko is generally doing better than Poroh and has beaten him in all head-2-head polls (though, there are few recent).


That Poroshenko's own party shows rosy poll to you, well, ok.


Public polling since november https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election:

17–22 Dec 2021 Poh +0,2
9–17 Dec 2021 Ze +11.4
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +14.8
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2021 Ze +12
11–17 Nov 2021 Ze +8
10–13 Nov 2021 Ze +18
29 Oct – 4 Nov 2021 Ze +7.8


There is a small chance that the latest poll "caught" the trend, it's unlikely. How could one say it looks like 50/50 or that recent polling shows Poroh winning? Cherry-picking at it best

Razumkov wins on other hand in 3 of 4 polls.

Well, let's go back even further

In order not to confuse anyone, let's divide the opinions polls by the companies by which it was made

1. Razumkov Centre (5 most recent)
Dec 17-22, 2021 50.1-49.9 Poroshenko
Nov 11-17, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Oct 23-27, 2021 56-44 Zelensky
Jul 29 - Aug 4, 2021 61-39 Zelensky
Jun 11-16, 2021 60-40 Zelensky

2. Rating (3 most recent)
Nov 10-13, 2021 59-41 Zelensky
Jun 30 - Jul 3, 2021 65-35 Zelensky
May 16-18, 2021 68-32 Zelensky

3. SOCIS (3 most recent)
Oct 29 - Nov 4, 2021 54-46 Zelensky
Jun 25-30, 2021 60-40 Zelensky
Apr 8-12, 2021 56-44 Zelensky

The last surveys of other companies were conducted a long time ago or the total number of surveys conducted by them was less than 3 (I could have counted incorrectly, so you can correct me). I think the trend here is clear and Zelensky's support is slowly but surely falling. The fact is that it is worth remembering  Poroshenko is winning or losing now is not because of his popularity/unpopularity, but because of Zelensky's popularity/unpopularuty.

Poroshenko's chances are much higher than Tymoshenko's, because he is much more likely to go to the second round than she is. Voters of Tymoshenko and Zelensky have similar ideologies and similar values, so it will be easy to lure them to one of the candidates who would most likely be Zelensky. Instead, the voters of Poroshenko and Zelensky are people with polar political positions.

And yes, if we hold elections now, I would say that there is such a picture:
In the case of a fight between Zelensky and Razumkov, Razumkov has about a 55% chance of winning. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have a 50% chance of winning. While in the case of the fight between Zelensky and Boyko, the former has about 75% chance of winning.

Well, I somewhat agree with that, but your initial claim was totally different. You said that recent polls (plural) showed that Poroh is wining, while all but one shows that Ze is winning by ~10.

As I said, Ze is, indeed, losing ground. Against all candidates. But, if anything, Poroh is the weakest one head-2-head. Poroh has been always losing to Tymoshenko and is literally the only one who is sometimes losing to openly pro-Russian Boyko, albeit there are no recent h2h between them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election

Poroshenko is probably the most hated politician in Ukraine, certainly in top 2 most hated. With that said, Poroshenko has quite high floor, which makes him most likely Ze's opponent in the 2nd round.

Firstly, as I said before, I have some access to data on internal European Solidarity polls at local level. These polls and the last DIF & Razumkov Center poll I meant by my statement "recent opinion polls". Yes, I know that internal polls are often rainbow and very supportive of the party that conducts them. However, I have seen these data and they show that Zelensky is in big trouble, even if you add a few percent. In addition, now, after extremely unpopular steps (such as the introduction of food stamps and the introduction of military accounting of women in many professions), Zelensky's rating will fall significantly, which will be reflected in polls. Of course, we'll see if I'm right. And, as I said earlier, the next election will not be about Poroshenko, but about Zelensky, and he has the highest anti-rating among Ukrainian politicians according to the most recent poll (December 9-17, KIIS), Poroshenko is second in the ranking.

Secondly, I have never claimed that Tymoshenko will lose to Poroshenko if there is a second round between them. She will win, and will win by a wide margin. The problem or joy is that such a second round will never take place, because the second round is guaranteed to be a competition between Zelensky and Poroshenko (unless the case against the latter is fabricated and he is imprisoned, although in this case the consequences for Zelensky will be quite unpredictable, and in that case he is likely to lose to someone else, such as Tymoshenko).

I also have two questions for you:
1. Who would you personally like to see as the President of Ukraine?
2. Do you agree with the statement of many Russian and Ukrainian experts that Putin's greatest wish in 2019 was for Poroshenko to lose. And do you think that Poroshenko is the most inconvenient for Russia among all the candidates?

[😥]

Here is my question:

Why do vaccination rate is so low in Ukraine? People here make fun of Russia's low vaccination rate (rightly so), but anyway we have ~50% higher than Ukraine, 45% fully vaxxed  in RU vs Ukraine's 30%. This is despite the fact that Ukraine has good access to Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, J&J and (Chinese) Sinovac.

https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/reference/coronavirus/vaccination/ukraine/

You can read a wide range of statistics (from the number of vaccinated by region to the number of vaccinations with a particular vaccine) here.

Answering your question, among the main reasons for such a low level of vaccination, I would single out three main ones:

1) not very successful vaccination campaign made by the government; total distrust of the Ministry of Health and a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories;

2) propaganda not to be vaccinated among certain popular and authoritative people, mainly in a certain region, for example, in one village a priest, who has a great influence on the parishioners, urged them not to be vaccinated, and this is not an isolated case. Of course, most priests promote vaccination, but not all. The Moscow Patriarchate is especially opposed to vaccination, which even organized a procession against vaccination. Again, there are anti-vaccines in all churches, so don't take this as agitation against a particular church);

3) relatively many doctors also urge not to get vaccinated because of the potential negative health consequences

[😥]

SmallSerg and to a lesser extent Russian Bear are ruining this wonderful thread with their inane nonsense. Kindly shoo!

Anyway, this thread is fantastic. I have always remembered Orthodox Christmas on Jan 7 because Jan 7 is my birthday!


Andriy do you feel that a possible invasion is now less likely because of Russia being busy in Kazakhstan?

Thanks for the kind words, Dave. I am very pleased!

Well, Russia's invasion of Kazakhstan, in my subjective opinion, does not make Russia's potential invasion of Ukraine less possible. I would even say the opposite, Russia's invasion of Kazakhstan shows that Putin is not ready to say goodbye to the countries of the former Soviet Union (which are not yet in the EU and NATO); he wants to maintain his influence and can go to any lengths to guarantee it.

The withdrawal of Russian troops from Kazakhstan will start on January 13 (according to Tokayev's statements) and will last for 10 days. That is, by January 23, Russian troops must have been withdrawn from Kazakhstan. In addition, as far as I know, no troops have been deployed in Kazakhstan from any military units concentrated near the border with Ukraine. Also during these events in Kazakhstan, Russia has only continued to increase the number of troops near the Ukrainian border.

So Russia is not so busy in Kazakhstan, especially the topic of Kazakhstan will not interfere with the Kremlin's plans after January 23, so we should expect and be ready for anything.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1481866343104360450

Not good…

[TrumpBritt24]

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1482007413184249859

[😥]

Taras Shevchenko

MY TESTAMENT (English translation of one of the most famous poems)
When I am dead, bury me
In my beloved Ukraine,
My tomb upon a grave mound high
Amid the spreading plain,
So that the fields, the boundless steppes,
The Dnipro's plunging shore
My eyes could see, my ears could hear
The mighty river roar.
When from Ukraine the Dnipro bears
Into the deep blue sea
The blood of foes ... then will I leave
These hills and fertile fields --
I'll leave them all and fly away
To the abode of God,
And then I'll pray ....
But till that dayI nothing know of God.
bury me, then rise ye up
And break your heavy chains
And water with the tyrants' blood
The freedom you have gained.
And in the great new family,
The family of the free,
With softly spoken, kindly word
Remember also me.

Заповіт (Ukrainian original)
Як умру, то поховайте
Мене на могилі,
Серед степу широкого,
На Вкраїні милій,
Щоб лани широкополі,
І Дніпро, і кручі
Було видно, було чути,
Як реве ревучий.
Як понесе з України
У синєє море
Кров ворожу... отойді я
І лани, і гори —
Все покину і полину
До самого бога
Молитися... а до того
Я не знаю бога.
Поховайте та вставайте,
Кайдани порвіте
І вражою злою кров'ю
Волю окропіте.
І мене в сем'ї великій,
В сем'ї вольній, новій,
Не забудьте пом'янути
Незлим тихим словом.

(Reading of the Testament in Ukrainian performed by the People's Artist of Ukraine Bohdan Stupka)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'm curious what the culture and relationships are like between Ukrainian's who support a Russian-aligned foreign policy and those who wish for a more independent foreign policy? Is there bad blood among the two groups in everyday life? What are the similarities (or differences), if any, between the Red/Blue division of states and polarization in America and those two sides? Would a Russian speaker be chastised or looked down upon in Lviv, or vice versa a Ukrainian speaker in Luhansk?

Hopefully this question makes sense.

[😥]

I'm curious what the culture and relationships are like between Ukrainian's who support a Russian-aligned foreign policy and those who wish for a more independent foreign policy? Is there bad blood among the two groups in everyday life? What are the similarities (or differences), if any, between the Red/Blue division of states and polarization in America and those two sides? Would a Russian speaker be chastised or looked down upon in Lviv, or vice versa a Ukrainian speaker in Luhansk?

Hopefully this question makes sense.

Good question, I'll try to answer it.

First of all, I want to dispel the myth of Russian propaganda that people in Western Ukraine cannot tolerate Russian. This is absolutely not true, you can speak Russian in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and other cities in the West, and everyone will react to this with understanding and quite normally, without any aggression. Russian propagandists have been repeating the same nonsense for 8 years that people in western Ukraine can even kill for the Russian language. This is a total lie used to portray the negative and terrible image of Ukrainians for ordinary Russians. In the same way, you can speak Ukrainian in the East of Ukraine, say in Kharkiv or Mariupol. The situation in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is somewhat different, the Ukrainian language is treated rather harshly, but it can still be used. Another thing is the use of the Ukrainian flag in the LDPR. There are many cases when people seen with the Ukrainian flag in the occupied territories were imprisoned and/or beaten, maimed, and in some cases even killed by Russian vassals.

As for relationships in everyday life, people pay almost no attention to each other's political views. There is no polarization of the US level, one of the main reasons why this is so is the presence of many parties with quite different ideologies, which prevents a serious conflict. Of course, there are only two views on foreign policy - pro-EU and pro-Russia, but the number of people with pro-Russian views is much smaller, which also reduces the likelihood of serious conflict in society. Another reason for the lack of social conflict is that people on the streets discuss issues related to their daily lives, such as rising utility tariffs or rising prices for everyday goods. International policy issues are secondary, while remaining quite important to the same people.