MT: Mason-Dixon: Tester (D) leads Burns (R) slightly

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Montana Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-10-21

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe this race really is narrowing. Regardless, Tester still wins.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well, looks like Burns is making a bit of a comeback after all. Maybe people were turned off to Tester after leaning how liberal he was.

Still to be an incumbent at 43% is wretched. Odds are still on Tester.

[okstate]

Rasmussen looks like he was onto something here, indeed. If the polls are comparable, then undecideds are breaking evenly between candidates (46-43 in M-D; 49-46 in Ras).  Burns will have to shift that ratio to win, but it's doable, especially with Tester's solid support still in the mid 40s.

The conservative leaning of the state should help out, and I'm shifting this one back to 4th place on the list of seats most likely to flip, behind PA, OH, and RI (in that order). MO takes 5th, and TN is the pure tossup at number six.

I'd place VA 7th and NJ 8th.

And anyone suprised that M-D did not poll Maryland? Regardless, Dems are at about a 40-50 percent chance of taking the Senate, IMO.

[Nym90]

Not too surprising this race is narrowing. Remember, Montana is a lot more conservative overall than Pennsylvania or Ohio or Missouri or even Tennessee. It's pretty hard for a Democrat to win by more than 4 or 5 points at the most.

[Gabu]

This race has always had an ungodly amount of undecideds, and I'm surprised that even nearly two weeks away from election day, it still does.

It nonetheless looks like Burns will need at least 2/3 to 3/4 of the undecideds in order to win.  Given both historical precedent with regards to undecideds (that they tend to favor the challenger) and that the national climate favors the Democrats, I would thus say that Burns' chances are not too good.

Could be done, though.  It's not impossible for an upset here, although I am not predicting one (an upset being a Burns victory).

[Eraserhead]

This one is now 4th most likely to flip as said earlier. I think Tester will still pull it off.

[AuH2O]

This is a case where neither party has a real organizational advantage, so if the GOP's various 72-hour plans give them an election day boost it won't matter in MT.

It's good for the GOP that Burns is at least close, because Democrats absolutely have to win MT if they want the Senate. And Burns has kind of a history of this... Republicans can only hope Montanans hold their nose one more time.

[Deano963]

This race is making me nervous. Tester should be further ahead.

[adam]

If Burns wins this election, I can not fathom how demoralising it would be for the Democrats. All of that money, all of that optimism...only to lose their chances at a majority in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Burns do have a cash advantage over Tester.

[HardRCafé]

He do?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, on Barrons, Burns has raised more money: http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB116138396438799484-uMRQ4ejl3lonVnJ_TXy6k9fPXls_20061121.html?mod=9_0002_b_free_features

[opebo]

Well what could be more obvious - of course he has the money advantage - he'd the Republican in the race.