Redistricting/renumbering have changed things a little bit.
Senate: I would argue Republicans already control all the Senate seats on the Iron Range outside of Duluth (Duluth is really not the Iron Range but that is a different argument). SD03 and SD07 (old SD06) are held by D turned I senators who caucused with Republicans. Democrats have a decent chance to flip those seats back especially SD03 (was even Pres 2020 and +10 Walz Gov 2018).
House: 03B is safe D. Mary Murphy(D) held the seat for 46 years and I don't see her losing now. 07A,07B (old 06A,06B) will be competitive along with 11A which is an open seat. All 3 could go either way.
What happens to her seat though when she either dies or retires (she is over 80 years old)? That is why I consider it a likely GOP pick-up once she leaves.
It's still a Democratic leaning seat, Biden +5 Walz +14.
I have Murphy and Lislegard hanging on due to personal brand. The Cloquet seat and Eklund are a toss up. We’ll lose the Marquart seat and Sandstede likely goes down too
