NH-Trafalgar: Hassan +6 over Bolduc, +8 over Morse

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If freaking trafalgar can’t find better GOP numbers than this, it’s over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling

Yeah when it gets close to the Election but we are 336 days away

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chuck Schumer should send a gift basket to Sununu for staying out of this race.

Sununu didn't want to risk losing his seat on a Tossup race and he was 3/5 pts ahead well within margin of error

Ayotte decided not to run for Gov made it easy for him to remain as Gov

He wanted a political career still

But, he won't get this type of Environment again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash.  

🛑 Worrying it's 330 days til Election, NV is part of the Blue 🧱🧱🧱

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash.  

Hassan was never the most vulnerable Senator, even when Sununu was considered likely to run (this was always a weird meme). AZ and even NV are just much easier to win statewide for the GOP than NH, and Kelly and Cortez Masto are hardly uniquely formidable incumbents.

And no, Johnson isn’t more vulnerable than Kelly (or Warnock, for that matter).

He only won by 150K not 2M when Hillary underperformed Trump 2016 and Scott Walker and Paul Ryan were officeholders in WI in 2010/2016 in WI get real he will Lose despite what you say 3 polls came out and he lost in every one 48/44 to Tom Nelson and tied in a Clarity poll with Barnes yes he is


If he isn't vulnerable why is he contemplating retirement Cook has WI a Tossup

He Johnson praised Insurrectionists and there are 12% Blk in WI just like in NV where 30% Latinx they underpolll Blk vote just like Traggy had Warnock behind in GA and he won, not in the Runoff they got it right but they had him losing before Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When you look at the topline, it's pretty clear most of those undecideds are Trump voters who don't know who the Republican nominee is. Regardless, it's not a great poll for R's, who should primarily focus on picking up AZ, NV, and GA and defending WI and PA.

If Biden and the situation in general continues to stabilize, those 5 are the main battlegrounds. I think if they have a "good night" but not a wave, they win all of them with the exception of GA. This night probably has 20 GOP house pick ups and maybe 2-3 Gubernatorial ones. So the GOP will go into 2024 with a 52-48 majority and a 231-204 house. About where they were after the 2002 midterms.

No, Biden all he has to be at 50% on Election night he won the 2020 Election map bye and D's get a 52/48 SENATE, Biden is at or near 50% in his Approvals we don't know about Redistricting because Cali can net us 4/7 Seats for Ds

We're favs in Gobs MA and MD and maybe GA and AZ are gonna flip, MI, PA and WI are gonna stay D but KS is vulnerable

Some users think Biden won 63/37 we won 50/45 and the Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016/ Benghazi Hillary

Biden is at 45(50 he can get to 50% on Election nught and secure the blue wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If freaking trafalgar can’t find better GOP numbers than this, it’s over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling

Trafalgar did manage to be more accurate in 2020, yes. But there isn't anything to suggest there was better methodology that led to this - they have found consistently better numbers for the GOP than most pollsters even when the Dem bias was much less.

Traggy is only right when it gets close to the Election it's 10 mnths before the Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans are going to win New Hampshire.  Trumps at 48?  Yeah.  It's really the fault of Democrats.  They keep feeding the man.  They are a shutdown away from conceding every swing state to the Republicans. 

The obvious issue with the Republican candidates is name recognition.  The Trump coalition looks very powerful.  If the Republican candidate just imitates the Virginia strategy, I don't think NH will be a problem.  NH was always the fools good for Republicans, but here we are.

It's Safe D without SUNUNU, Jeanne Shaheen like Sherrod Brown with T Ryan are campaigning for their Jr Send you n OH and NH