NH-Trafalgar: Hassan +6 over Bolduc, +8 over Morse
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  NH-Trafalgar: Hassan +6 over Bolduc, +8 over Morse
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Author Topic: NH-Trafalgar: Hassan +6 over Bolduc, +8 over Morse  (Read 1207 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 16, 2021, 02:07:51 PM »

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TRF-NH-22-Gen-1213-Poll-Report.pdf

Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 46%
Donald Bolduc (R) 40%

Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 46%
Chuck Morse (R) 38%
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2021, 02:13:08 PM »

I guess it really was Sununu or bust.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2021, 02:16:39 PM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2021, 02:17:41 PM »

Don't buy that Hassan is safe, but this probably is the Democrat's most likely (vulnerable) seat to hold, at this point.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2021, 02:18:16 PM »

Dems shouldnít assume this race is safe because Sununu isnít running.  They made this mistake with Feingold in 2010 when Tommy Thompson didnít run.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2021, 02:18:21 PM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over
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BigSerg
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2021, 02:24:26 PM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2021, 02:25:28 PM »

Tossup.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2021, 02:25:58 PM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling

Yeah when it gets close to the Election but we are 336 days away
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Rose-Colored Boy
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2021, 02:26:12 PM »

Chuck Schumer should send a gift basket to Sununu for staying out of this race.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2021, 02:28:21 PM »

Chuck Schumer should send a gift basket to Sununu for staying out of this race.

Sununu didn't want to risk losing his seat on a Tossup race and he was 3/5 pts ahead well within margin of error

Ayotte decided not to run for Gov made it easy for him to remain as Gov

He wanted a political career still

But, he won't get this type of Environment again
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Gracile
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2021, 02:55:53 PM »

Being in the mid-40s is still not great (and this lead is likely inflated by her opponents having lower name ID), but I still think Hassan will have a slight advantage going into November.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2021, 04:30:45 PM »

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash. 
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2021, 05:53:23 PM »

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash.  

🛑 Worrying it's 330 days til Election, NV is part of the Blue 🧱🧱🧱
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2021, 08:41:56 PM »

Would be funny if Sununu didnít just screw the chances of flipping this senate seat, but possibly screwed republicans chances at winning the senate.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2021, 03:11:10 AM »

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash.  

Hassan was never the most vulnerable Senator, even when Sununu was considered likely to run (this was always a weird meme). AZ and even NV are just much easier to win statewide for the GOP than NH, and Kelly and Cortez Masto are hardly uniquely formidable incumbents.

And no, Johnson isnít more vulnerable than Kelly (or Warnock, for that matter).
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2021, 05:30:41 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 05:36:50 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash.  

Hassan was never the most vulnerable Senator, even when Sununu was considered likely to run (this was always a weird meme). AZ and even NV are just much easier to win statewide for the GOP than NH, and Kelly and Cortez Masto are hardly uniquely formidable incumbents.

And no, Johnson isnít more vulnerable than Kelly (or Warnock, for that matter).

He only won by 150K not 2M when Hillary underperformed Trump 2016 and Scott Walker and Paul Ryan were officeholders in WI in 2010/2016 in WI get real he will Lose despite what you say 3 polls came out and he lost in every one 48/44 to Tom Nelson and tied in a Clarity poll with Barnes yes he is


If he isn't vulnerable why is he contemplating retirement Cook has WI a Tossup

He Johnson praised Insurrectionists and there are 12% Blk in WI just like in NV where 30% Latinx they underpolll Blk vote just like Traggy had Warnock behind in GA and he won, not in the Runoff they got it right but they had him losing before Runoff
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2021, 05:51:16 AM »

When you look at the topline, it's pretty clear most of those undecideds are Trump voters who don't know who the Republican nominee is. Regardless, it's not a great poll for R's, who should primarily focus on picking up AZ, NV, and GA and defending WI and PA.
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beesley
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2021, 08:16:24 AM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling

Trafalgar did manage to be more accurate in 2020, yes. But there isn't anything to suggest there was better methodology that led to this - they have found consistently better numbers for the GOP than most pollsters even when the Dem bias was much less.
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2021, 08:50:12 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 08:57:04 AM by Person Man »

When you look at the topline, it's pretty clear most of those undecideds are Trump voters who don't know who the Republican nominee is. Regardless, it's not a great poll for R's, who should primarily focus on picking up AZ, NV, and GA and defending WI and PA.

If Biden and the situation in general continues to stabilize, those 5 are the main battlegrounds. I think if they have a "good night" but not a wave, they win all of them with the exception of GA. This night probably has 20 GOP house pick ups and maybe 2-3 Gubernatorial ones. So the GOP will go into 2024 with a 52-48 majority and a 231-204 house. About where they were after the 2002 midterms.

Maybe this race and one other becomes "Toss Up" or even "Lean R" if the new year has us limp into another crisis but there is also upside risks to Democrats, too. Namely that there is some sort of proxy military strike on Iran that cripples their program and it doesn't escalate into a war or worse, escalates into a situation where war is warranted but avoided or that Roe v. Wade is overruled and there's a backlash. In that situation, Democrats probably gain in both chambers.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2021, 08:57:55 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2021, 09:02:48 AM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

When you look at the topline, it's pretty clear most of those undecideds are Trump voters who don't know who the Republican nominee is. Regardless, it's not a great poll for R's, who should primarily focus on picking up AZ, NV, and GA and defending WI and PA.

If Biden and the situation in general continues to stabilize, those 5 are the main battlegrounds. I think if they have a "good night" but not a wave, they win all of them with the exception of GA. This night probably has 20 GOP house pick ups and maybe 2-3 Gubernatorial ones. So the GOP will go into 2024 with a 52-48 majority and a 231-204 house. About where they were after the 2002 midterms.

No, Biden all he has to be at 50% on Election night he won the 2020 Election map bye and D's get a 52/48 SENATE, Biden is at or near 50% in his Approvals we don't know about Redistricting because Cali can net us 4/7 Seats for Ds

We're favs in Gobs MA and MD and maybe GA and AZ are gonna flip, MI, PA and WI are gonna stay D but KS is vulnerable

Some users think Biden won 63/37 we won 50/45 and the Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016/ Benghazi Hillary

Biden is at 45(50 he can get to 50% on Election nught and secure the blue wall
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2021, 09:07:24 AM »

If freaking trafalgar canít find better GOP numbers than this, itís over

Trafalgar is one of the best pollsters, stop trolling

Trafalgar did manage to be more accurate in 2020, yes. But there isn't anything to suggest there was better methodology that led to this - they have found consistently better numbers for the GOP than most pollsters even when the Dem bias was much less.

Traggy is only right when it gets close to the Election it's 10 mnths before the Election
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2021, 09:54:37 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2021-12-12

Summary: D: 46%, R: 39%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2021, 07:59:32 PM »

So I guess CCM takes Hassan's place as the most vulnerable senator. I imagine it becomes Johnson if Dobbs causes a backlash. 
IMHO, Mark Kelly is the most vulnerable now.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2021, 06:04:26 AM »

Republicans are going to win New Hampshire.  Trumps at 48?  Yeah.  It's really the fault of Democrats.  They keep feeding the man.  They are a shutdown away from conceding every swing state to the Republicans. 

The obvious issue with the Republican candidates is name recognition.  The Trump coalition looks very powerful.  If the Republican candidate just imitates the Virginia strategy, I don't think NH will be a problem.  NH was always the fools good for Republicans, but here we are.
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