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jfern
Atlas Institution
Posts: 53,757
Political Matrix E: -7.38, S: -8.36
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« on: October 22, 2006, 07:10:57 PM » |
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If Congressmen voted predictably based upon their Progressive Punch score, the one with the median score would control Congress.
Right now, there's one vacant Democratic seat, so the median score would belongs to Timothy Johnson 17.68%
If the Democrats gain 15 seats, the minimum to take back the house, the median will probably be Gene Taylor 48.43%
What if the Democrats gain more seats? Well, some of their candidates are fairly conservative, such as Lucas, so it's hard to say how a Democratic gain would translate into the median Congressman. On the other hand, Boehlert 29.15% is retiring, and the CT Congressmen might get defeated, so if the Democrats don't gain Congress, again, the score may be more conservative.
Let's look at a gain of n fairly liberal Congressmen 15. Gene Taylor 48.43% 20. Mike McIntyre 59.52% 25. Allen Boyd 61.90% 30. John Murtha 66.61%
In other words, if the Democrats gain big, it'll still only be moderates in control.
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