Progressive Punch Score of the median Congressman
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  Progressive Punch Score of the median Congressman
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Poll
Question: What will be the median Progressive Punch score of the next Congress?
#1
< 17.68%
 
#2
17.68%-20%
 
#3
20%-25%
 
#4
25%-30%
 
#5
30%-45%
 
#6
45%-50%
 
#7
50%-55%
 
#8
55%-60%
 
#9
60%-65%
 
#10
>65%
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 6

Author Topic: Progressive Punch Score of the median Congressman  (Read 741 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,757


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« on: October 22, 2006, 07:10:57 PM »

If Congressmen voted predictably based upon their Progressive Punch score, the one with the median score would control Congress.

Right now, there's one vacant Democratic seat, so the median score would belongs to
Timothy Johnson 17.68%

If the Democrats gain 15 seats, the minimum to take back the house, the median will probably be
Gene Taylor 48.43%

What if the Democrats gain more seats? Well, some of their candidates are fairly conservative, such as Lucas, so it's hard to say how a Democratic gain would translate into the median Congressman. On the other hand, Boehlert 29.15% is retiring, and the CT Congressmen might get defeated, so if the Democrats don't gain Congress, again, the score may be more conservative.

Let's look at a gain of n fairly liberal Congressmen
15. Gene Taylor 48.43%
20. Mike McIntyre 59.52%
25. Allen Boyd 61.90%
30. John Murtha 66.61%

In other words, if the Democrats gain big, it'll still only be moderates in control.

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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,757


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2006, 01:12:45 AM »

It looks like the low 60s is the most likely.
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