New Gallup and ABC News Polls

[The Vorlon]

ABCNews releases their latest National poll this afternoon, while Gallup comes out either today or tomorrow.

Both will have been done entirely in the week after the Reagan Funeral week so the "Reagan Effect" should be a bit more muted.

For what it is worth, what do we all predict

[Lunar]

ABC - Bush +4
Gallup - Bush +2

[© tweed]

ABC - Bush +4
Gallup - Bush +2

Is that a prediction?

[Lunar]

ABC - Bush +4
Gallup - Bush +2

Is that a prediction?

Yes.

[© tweed]

Sig too big vorlon

[millwx]

For what it is worth, what do we all predict

I predict:
  ABC - dead even head-to-head and/or (depending on how it's reported) Bush +3 w/ Nader
  Gallup - Bush +1 head-to-head, Bush +5 w/ Nader

Predicting polls?  What's wrong with us??  

[elcorazon]

Bush will be up 4-6 in the two polls.

Will Moore's movie have any impact?  Who will it help? (obviously unrelated to this thread, but heck, I can change a subject once in a while can't I)

[Reds4]

Gallup, Bush up by 3 head to head, 5 with Nader
ABCNews- Dead heat head to head, Bush up 2 with Nader


 I actually saw an ad for Moore's film while watching tv last night. I surely hope nothing he does affects the race in either way. I respect many people that disagree with me politically, but he is definitely not one of them.

[Nation]

Kerry +1 in the gallup poll

just to shake it up a little

[millwx]

New ABC/WP poll?

I've seen no headlines or stories yet, just happened to pick this up off the WP site...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

The graph DOES have June 20th data points on it.  Is it safe to presume this is the new poll???  If so...

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 6%

Actually, just checked under the "Complete Polling Data" link...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_062104.html
This IS the new poll.

[Lunar]

Fairly good news for Kerry.  He's +8 in a direct head to head.



In addition, 47% approve, 51% disapprove.

Kerry beats Bush on the economy, education, deficit, prescription drugs, terrorism, healthcare, taxes, and international affairs.  Bush beats Kerry on Iraq.

Clinton has a 62% approval rating for his presidency and 50% approval rating pesonally.

[millwx]

Fairly good news for Kerry.

Definitely.  But, under the top level numbers, still some good news for Bush, as Kerry's support remains softer.  Also, this is a RV, not an LV poll (parts of it are just "adults", but this 48-44 number is RV).  RV *tends* to run a bit more Dem friendly than LV.  That's even further consolation for Bush.  Also, I'm not sure how good their sample was (based on the results of some questions it looks good, but some look a bit Dem-friendly... though those may have been the "adults" questions and not the RV questions).

So, not a terrible poll for Bush.  Still, you're right... generally decent news for Kerry, especially after the apparent boost Bush got during Reagan week.

[millwx]

ABCNews- Dead heat head to head, Bush up 2 with Nader

Reds4, none of us were close on the ABCNews/WP poll.  You had Bush up 2% in a three way race.  You were closest.  You win.  Give yourself a nice, hearty pat on the back.

[agcatter]

Nope.  Not buying it.  Kerry up slightly on the terrorism issue?  

Paleez.

Would love to see this sample.

[Blue Rectangle]

There has got to be something wrong with this poll.

Bush has consistantly scored higher than Kerry on the terror issue.  This poll shows:
Whom do you trust to handle terror?
Bush 67, Kerry 31 (wow, big margin!)
Does he have a clear plan on terror?
Bush 55, Kerry 42 (closer to the Bush +15 that seems to be the norm)
Who is more trusted on terror?
Bush 47, Kerry 48 (Huh?)

So it sounds like about 20% of those polled said something like this:
Q: Do you trust Bush to handle terror?
A: Yes
Q: Do you trust Kerry to handle terror?
A: No
Q: Whom do you trust more on terror?
A: Kerry

Anyone have the question-by-question breakout?

[agcatter]

Yeah.  Makes zero sense.

[The Vorlon]

Yeah.  Makes zero sense.

ABC News: June 17th - 20th (Registered Voters)
Sample size = 1200

Kerry 48
Bush 44
Nader 6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_062104.html

TIPP - Registered Voters (June 14th-19th)
Sample Size = 1000

Bush 44
Kerry 41
Nader 6

(Link to follow)

Harris Says Bush +10 (unlikely)
Pew says Bush +4
IBD says Bush +3
Rasmussen says Kerry +3
ABC says Kerry +4/+8

Ok.. that's clear... I understand now...

[millwx]

There has got to be something wrong with this poll.

Maybe, but keep in mind, some of these questions (like the one on preferences w.r.t. the war on terror) only half the sample was questioned.  So, for one thing, the MOE is much higher in these point-by-point questions.  And secondly, they're not even asking the same people these different questions.

Mind you, I'm not disagreeing that this looks fishy.  It does.  Though a Harris poll from mid-May (for Time/CNN) only gave Bush a 7% edge in the war on terror.  That is the most recent issue-by-issue poll I've seen of adults (a Fox/OD poll was more recent, but was of RVs).  So, this ABC/WP poll may not be WAY off base.  Still, it does look somewhat "off".

[millwx]

Ok.. that's clear... I understand now...

I'd almost say that just looks like a trend back towards Kerry after Reaganfest.  But there's too much overlap in that TIPP poll with the ABC/WP poll.  I could maybe see a shift of 1-2%, but not 7%!!  The ABC/WP poll only started three days later.  Perhaps the MOEs account for the differences, but I don't know.

Frankly, I'm more skeptical of the ABC/WP poll.  But given the Rasmussen results (questionable as they might be), along with the *possible* trend, I'd just say it's 47% Bush, 47% Kerry.  Call it a tie and leave it at that.

[Blue Rectangle]

(Whom do you trust more)
f. The U.S. campaign against terrorism

                               Both      Neither      No
            Bush    Kerry     (vol.)     (vol.)      opin.
6/20/04      47       48         1          3          1
5/23/04      52       39         1          4          4
4/18/04      58       37         1          3          1
3/7/04        57       36         2          2          3
2/11/04      53       37         1          4          5

Four straight months of Bush +15, then a sharp drop?  There has to be a reason, but there hasn't been any major development on terror in months.

[millwx]

Four straight months of Bush +15, then a sharp drop?  There has to be a reason, but there hasn't been any major development on terror in months.

While I've "sort of" defended the poll (in large part because the most recent similar one - Harris - wasn't massively different on this question), I think you and "agcat" are, in part, on to the "reason"... The poll is very possible wrong, to a degree.  Meanwhile, if only 5% of the public changes their mind, it can shift the gap by 10%.  It would only take some minor developments to have this effect.

[phillies]

Perhaps the American public is changing its mind on the matter, something about our successes in Iraq.  And perhaps like the LA Times poll and the matching poll in the other direction, the laws of statistics imply that 1% of the time your poll should be outside the 99% confidence limit.

There has got to be something wrong with this poll.

Bush has consistantly scored higher than Kerry on the terror issue.  This poll shows:
Whom do you trust to handle terror?
Bush 67, Kerry 31 (wow, big margin!)
Does he have a clear plan on terror?
Bush 55, Kerry 42 (closer to the Bush +15 that seems to be the norm)
Who is more trusted on terror?
Bush 47, Kerry 48 (Huh?)

So it sounds like about 20% of those polled said something like this:
Q: Do you trust Bush to handle terror?
A: Yes
Q: Do you trust Kerry to handle terror?
A: No
Q: Whom do you trust more on terror?
A: Kerry

Anyone have the question-by-question breakout?

[The Vorlon]

ABC poll:

Among registered voters in this poll, 38 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents[/b]

[Lunar]

Shucks.  Seems like you throw those ones out.

[© tweed]

I take it ABC does not weight by party ID?