Who will be the Republican nominee if it's not Trump or DeSantis?

[Roll Roons]

In this scenario, both Trump and DeSantis choose not to run for president. In that case, who is most likely to get the Republican nomination?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Cotton, Youngkin or someone not on this list(Rick Scott for one)

[TDAS04]

I'm guessing Ted Cruz, but I have no idea.  I could see someone like Hawley.  It's not going to be Pence.  I'm assuming Romney, Christie, and Hogan are joke options.

[Roll Roons]

I'm assuming Romney, Christie, and Hogan are joke options.

No more than Pompeo.

[President Johnson]

Mike Pompeo.

Pence won't make it because Trump will go after him. He has nowhere to go.

[Medal506]

I would say probably Greg Abbott

[Medal506]

Cotton, Youngkin or someone not on this list(Rick Scott for one)

Greg Abbott would be the most likely

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Youngkin, if he wants it. He has the most street cred when it comes to electability, since he flipped a Biden +10 state just a year later. That being said, if Youngkin doesn't run, I could see it being Abbott; he overturned Roe v. Wade, after all.

[Del Tachi]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

[Ferguson97]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

Neither Trump nor DeSantis are moderate.

[Del Tachi]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

Neither Trump nor DeSantis are moderate.

Exit polling from the 2016 primary consistently showed Trump way ahead with "moderate/somewhat conservative" voters while the "very conservative" types were the Cruz/Rubio people.  DeSantis appeals to the same types of voters Trump did in 2016. 

Republican primary voters (especially outside the Evangelical South and monied suburbs) are mostly moderates.  Trump, Romney, McCain, GWB, Dole and Poppy Bush all won open GOP nominating contests by dominating the "moderate" lane. 

The disconnect you're having is that you've allowed "moderation" to become equated with "sounding nice" and being buddy-buddy with mainstream media.  Republicans like Liz Cheney, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (among other MSM favorites ) are on issues of policy *much* more conservative than what is offered by Trump and Trumpism

[Senator Incitatus]

The only names here that seem remotely plausible are Pompeo and Rubio.

[President Johnson]

The only names here that seem remotely plausible are Pompeo and Rubio.

I think Rubio too much embarrassed himself the last time for being a serious contender again. From the 2016 pack, Cruz has a much higher chance. However, he'd be a weak general election candidate.

[Ferguson97]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

Neither Trump nor DeSantis are moderate.

Exit polling from the 2016 primary consistently showed Trump way ahead with "moderate/somewhat conservative" voters while the "very conservative" types were the Cruz/Rubio people.  DeSantis appeals to the same types of voters Trump did in 2016. 

Republican primary voters (especially outside the Evangelical South and monied suburbs) are mostly moderates.  Trump, Romney, McCain, GWB, Dole and Poppy Bush all won open GOP nominating contests by dominating the "moderate" lane. 

The disconnect you're having is that you've allowed "moderation" to become equated with "sounding nice" and being buddy-buddy with mainstream media.  Republicans like Liz Cheney, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (among other MSM favorites ) are on issues of policy *much* more conservative than what is offered by Trump and Trumpism

Getting moderates to vote for you is not the same thing as actually being a moderate.

[Del Tachi]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

Neither Trump nor DeSantis are moderate.

Exit polling from the 2016 primary consistently showed Trump way ahead with "moderate/somewhat conservative" voters while the "very conservative" types were the Cruz/Rubio people.  DeSantis appeals to the same types of voters Trump did in 2016. 

Republican primary voters (especially outside the Evangelical South and monied suburbs) are mostly moderates.  Trump, Romney, McCain, GWB, Dole and Poppy Bush all won open GOP nominating contests by dominating the "moderate" lane. 

The disconnect you're having is that you've allowed "moderation" to become equated with "sounding nice" and being buddy-buddy with mainstream media.  Republicans like Liz Cheney, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (among other MSM favorites ) are on issues of policy *much* more conservative than what is offered by Trump and Trumpism

Getting moderates to vote for you is not the same thing as actually being a moderate.

I guess Joe Biden proves your point

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Trump and DeSantis sitting out would leave the moderate lane wide open, so the nominee would most likely be whoever is able to consolidate that wing of the party.  Pompeo or Haley seems most likely, IMO
   

Neither Trump nor DeSantis are moderate.

Exit polling from the 2016 primary consistently showed Trump way ahead with "moderate/somewhat conservative" voters while the "very conservative" types were the Cruz/Rubio people.  DeSantis appeals to the same types of voters Trump did in 2016. 

Republican primary voters (especially outside the Evangelical South and monied suburbs) are mostly moderates.  Trump, Romney, McCain, GWB, Dole and Poppy Bush all won open GOP nominating contests by dominating the "moderate" lane. 

The disconnect you're having is that you've allowed "moderation" to become equated with "sounding nice" and being buddy-buddy with mainstream media.  Republicans like Liz Cheney, John Boehner, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (among other MSM favorites ) are on issues of policy *much* more conservative than what is offered by Trump and Trumpism

Getting moderates to vote for you is not the same thing as actually being a moderate.

It depends on how you define "moderate". Trump was easily the hardliner on immigration while "moderates" like Jeb! and Rubio were far more conciliatory on that issue, but those same "moderates" are the type of people who support Bush era proposals to partially privatize Social Security, and take a much more critical view of welfare and social spending in general. It is those types of "moderates" who would handicap any Trump-backed plan for infrastructure spending. They also represent a wing of the GOP that is less culturally conservative but very socially conservative. But now the Christian Right, neoconservatives, and Paul Ryan-ite free marketeers - all once dominating influences within the party - are quickly bleeding influence to more nativist/isolationist and socially libertarian Republicans.

[dw93]

Cotton or Cruz, but both would be terrible general election candidates. 2024 is too soon for Youngkin, 2028 is more likely for him if the Democrats hold 2024.

[Suburbia]

Cruz

[Klobmentum Mutilated Herself]

If it's not Trump or DeSantis, it's because the two of them split the far-far right vote, so one of the regular far-righters would win. My guess is whoever fills the theocratic Evangelical lane Huckabee and Cruz occupied because there's always one of those candidates in a GOP primary and they always have a high floor, albeit a lower floor than usual because of how many of those voters are solidly in the Q camp now. I don't know if Cruz has the balls to run against Trump, but he's the most eager to run of anyone who would be able to run that type of campaign.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cotton or Cruz, but both would be terrible general election candidates. 2024 is too soon for Youngkin, 2028 is more likely for him if the Democrats hold 2024 and he gets re elected in 2025.

Youngkin won't be re-elected in 2025 because he's not eligible.

[ElectionsGuy]

Somebody who will lose.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump, even if he's not actually a declared candidate. I highly doubt the delegates at the Republican National Convention will be willing to nominate anyone else.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Cruz, Pence, and or Youngkin in that order.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think it could be Glenn Youngkin, and that's not something I would have said a week ago.  Since taking office, he's done things like make the state's diversity officer "an ambassador for unborn babies" and discourage asymptomatic people from getting covid tests.  Combine stuff like that with having won a high-profile election in a blue-leaning state, and I think he could be formidable in 2024.

[Medal506]

How come Greg Abbott was never mentioned by anyone other than me? He’s DeSantis light so it only makes sense for him to be the nominee if neither Trump nor DeSantis run.