TX-Quinnipiac: Abbott +15

[BigSerg]

Quinnipiac poll of Texas-Gov has:

Greg Abbott (R) 52
Beto O'Rourke (D) 37

Abbott job approval: 53/41
Biden job approval: 32/64
O'Rourke favorability: 36/47

Dec. 2-6, 1224 RVs, MoE +/- 2.8%

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1468612239137521671?t=d2vy-Zu6AhS0r1Sy...

[UncleSam]

Quinnipiac poll of Texas-Gov has:

Greg Abbott (R) 52
Beto O'Rourke (D) 37

Abbott job approval: 53/41
Biden job approval: 32/64
O'Rourke favorability: 36/47

Dec. 2-6, 1224 RVs, MoE +/- 2.8%

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1468612239137521671?t=d2vy-Zu6AhS0r1Sy...

Guess people already forgot about how he banned abortion. Lemmings.

[Roll Roons]

Turns out Texans don't like it when you say you'll force them to give up their guns. Who knew?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm shocked !










lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R failed Beto

[2016]

Turns out Texans don't like it when you say you'll force them to give up their guns. Who knew?

This Q-Pac Poll looks like a lot more in line compared to that University of Texas/YouGov Poll which had O'Rourke ahead.

Maybe Q-Pac has finally adjusted their Polling Methodology!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Voters were asked who would do a better job handling six issues...

the economy: 60 percent say Abbott, while 32 percent say O'Rourke;
gun policy: 60 percent say Abbott, while 33 percent say O'Rourke;
the situation at the Mexican border: 58 percent say Abbott, while 35 percent say O'Rourke;
election laws: 55 percent say Abbott, while 40 percent say O'Rourke;
the response to the coronavirus: 54 percent say Abbott, while 39 percent say O'Rourke;
abortion: 49 percent say Abbott, while 41 percent say O'Rourke.

So looks like the heartbeat law isn’t a negative for Abbott lol


https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3830

[CookieDamage]

Beto should have just run for senate again, this is gonna be embarrassing

[Gracile]

I think the final margin will be closer than this, but the race is obviously Safe R.

[DaleCooper]

The sad thing is that if Democrats were actually willing to appeal to their states' voters, then a charming guy like O'Rourke could easily turn the winning Republican issues around on them. Imagine if Beto led the charge on Abbott being a failure that's allowed the border to collapse and that cares more about the 5-decade war on Roe v. Wade than he cares about working-class Texans. Instead, the Democrats just embrace bleeding heart liberal issues and wonder why people without blue wave emojis aren't voting for them.

[Hollywood]

Texas is a safe R.  Duh!

Only Georgia looks like a problem for the GOP.  I'm not worried because Biden is a gift to the GOP that keeps on giving.  

[TodayJunior]

This is assuming about an R+6 year. Yeeeeesh.

[Hollywood]

The sad thing is that if Democrats were actually willing to appeal to their states' voters, then a charming guy like O'Rourke could easily turn the winning Republican issues around on them. Imagine if Beto led the charge on Abbott being a failure that's allowed the border to collapse and that cares more about the 5-decade war on Roe v. Wade than he cares about working-class Texans. Instead, the Democrats just embrace bleeding heart liberal issues and wonder why people without blue wave emojis aren't voting for them.

How can they pin the border collapse on Abbott when everyone knows its Biden's fault?  They tried that tactic, but nobody understands how Democrats can make that argument at this point.  Too many of their loudest core constituents are opposed to a functioning border security.  Over 60% of people blame Biden.  Border security is solely within the realm of the Federal Government powers, so it's basically too silly to go after Abbott on border issues.  

The national focus on Roe v. Wade has also been a bit of a problem for Democrats if one looks at polling internals.  Yeah most people support the right to an abortion, but they don't seem to specific sub-issues like late-term abortion.  People that indicate abortion as a top issue are anti-abortion voters, so the debate is going to drive the wrong demographics to the polls.  Most people care about the Economy and Covid-19 issues, which are inter-related.  

I think the bleeding heart woke mob just seem to be poisoning every single Democrat issue and talking point.  If you don't agree with them on every issue and sub-issue, you immediately become an enemy.  That's bad politics.  This is yet another poll where the GOP takes a majority of Hispanics.  Why?  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is assuming about an R+6 year. Yeeeeesh.

In a Neutral Environment TX was plus 6 and FL is plus 3, all signs point as of now a 304 map Scenario with Biden near 50/45 Approvals

COVID is holding his Approvals down and so are Labor shortages

[DaleCooper]

The sad thing is that if Democrats were actually willing to appeal to their states' voters, then a charming guy like O'Rourke could easily turn the winning Republican issues around on them. Imagine if Beto led the charge on Abbott being a failure that's allowed the border to collapse and that cares more about the 5-decade war on Roe v. Wade than he cares about working-class Texans. Instead, the Democrats just embrace bleeding heart liberal issues and wonder why people without blue wave emojis aren't voting for them.

How can they pin the border collapse on Abbott when everyone knows its Biden's fault?  They tried that tactic, but nobody understands how Democrats can make that argument at this point.  Too many of their loudest core constituents are opposed to a functioning border security.  Over 60% of people blame Biden.  Border security is solely within the realm of the Federal Government powers, so it's basically too silly to go after Abbott on border issues.  

The national focus on Roe v. Wade has also been a bit of a problem for Democrats if one looks at polling internals.  Yeah most people support the right to an abortion, but they don't seem to specific sub-issues like late-term abortion.  People that indicate abortion as a top issue are anti-abortion voters, so the debate is going to drive the wrong demographics to the polls.  Most people care about the Economy and Covid-19 issues, which are inter-related.  

I think the bleeding heart woke mob just seem to be poisoning every single Democrat issue and talking point.  If you don't agree with them on every issue and sub-issue, you immediately become an enemy.  That's bad politics.  This is yet another poll where the GOP takes a majority of Hispanics.  Why?  

They could paint Abbot as the failure for being the umpteenth Republican in a row that's failed to stem the crisis, then accuse him of trying to pass the problem onto someone else, which is a sign of weakness. The second Republicans start talking about the nuances between federal and state government, they've lost the argument.

As for the bleeding hearts, you'll get no disagreements from me there. I'd argue that it's them that have ruined the social issues for Democrats. Ten years ago, Republicans obsessing over Roe v. Wade was easy to oppose as a swing voter because they were the extremists, but now Democrats have to own the #ShoutYourAbortion crowd just as the GOP has to own the false Christians in their base. When forced to choose between two extremes, it seems that most voters in the majority of states will lean conservative. Plus, as you mentioned, most voters just don't care and find it insulting when politicians prioritize it over the issues that affect them more. That's why I said Beto should only bring up Roe against Abbott when pointing out that Abbott would rather waste precious time on culture war issues than "real issues."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto won't get closer than six pts like the last poll had him, in 2020/ Biden lost the state by 6 pts and FL by 3, it's a Neutral Environment since Biden can get back to 50/45 by Oct 22

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is assuming about an R+6 year. Yeeeeesh.

So basically what the VA results showed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R failed Beto

LOL THE ELection is 335 dAYS AWAY AND mJ HEGAR GOT Within 6 PONTS OF ABOTT! ITS A 304 BLE WALL AND RYAN AND CHRIST CAN WIN1

I'm not the only one S019 still has banner Crist and Demings

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Beto can kiss his political career goodbye forever after 2022! 😂

[Umengus]

Turns out Texans don't like it when you say you'll force them to give up their guns. Who knew?

This Q-Pac Poll looks like a lot more in line compared to that University of Texas/YouGov Poll which had O'Rourke ahead.

Maybe Q-Pac has finally adjusted their Polling Methodology!

lol yes. After being outrageously pro-dem, it's now the other way around. At national level too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must remember we're in Dec 2021 not Nov 22 having said that right now it's a 304 map, but wave insurance seats are the last to go, QU has an R biased and Trump won TX by six not 15 same with FL he won by 3 not 10

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R.

Not sure the margin will be this large in the end, but high probability it's going to be in the low double digits. An embarrassing end for Beto's career.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s telling that even in this R-friendly poll, Cruz's favorability is only a very undewhelming +6 (51/45). If accurate, this may lend credence to the predictions that TX-SEN 2024 is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than FL-SEN 2024 (and is in fact more likely to go D than OH, even with Brown running). If the R nominee is winning TX by a margin healthy enough for Cruz to be heavily favored in his Senate race, Brown has likely already lost anyway.

[Sir Mohamed]

It’s telling that even in this R-friendly poll, Cruz's favorability is only a very undewhelming +6 (51/45). If accurate, this may lend credence to the predictions that TX-SEN 2024 is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than FL-SEN 2024 (and is in fact more likely to go D than OH, even with Brown running). If the R nominee is winning TX by a margin healthy enough for Cruz to be heavily favored in his Senate race, Brown has likely already lost anyway.

Yup, Beto could have had a chance in rematch, if he didn't run for prez and gov in between. After losing this race, he's pretty much done.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s telling that even in this R-friendly poll, Cruz's favorability is only a very undewhelming +6 (51/45). If accurate, this may lend credence to the predictions that TX-SEN 2024 is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than FL-SEN 2024 (and is in fact more likely to go D than OH, even with Brown running). If the R nominee is winning TX by a margin healthy enough for Cruz to be heavily favored in his Senate race, Brown has likely already lost anyway.

Yup, Beto could have had a chance in rematch, if he didn't run for prez and gov in between. After losing this race, he's pretty much done.

Yes, between him running for President and now for the gubernatorial race in 2022, it’s like he’s actively trying to end his own political career. Some people really just cannot wait a little longer to obtain more power or have serious delusions of grandeur which will cloud their judgment and harm their future electoral prospects even when they are otherwise smart strategians and skilled political operators (see: Bullock, Steve). Shows you how no one is immune from falling into the same old timeless human pitfalls (in this case overestimating oneself just because they have only had success in the past).

Perhaps he’s going the "run until the state is blue enough for me to win" route, but he’s likely to attract serious primary challengers in his next campaigns, and even against Cruz, some crossover appeal will likely be needed to flip the seat given that it’s a presidential year.