The GOP has managed to win the popular vote once in my lifetime (2004) and I was born about 3 weeks after election day 1988. You're telling me the country is gonna go crawling back to Orange Boii after he got clown pounded by 7 million votes? Exactly how is that supposed to work? That 7 million spread is supposed to come solely from CA and NY or something?
Biden is at 30% approval with independents. This isn't turning around. Dems can absolutely lose the pv in 2024. It's at least 50/50 in my opinion. Democrats are seen as too left for the average voter right now.
I think the "PV" has a bimodal distribution, which suggests Republican odds of winning it are much higher than expected, because if Biden really looks doomed in October 2024, turnout in New York and California is going to be abysmal. In a close race I'd expect something more another D+3 or +4 margin again.