Harvard-Harris: Trump +3

[BigSerg]

Their final poll was 54/46 Biden (2020 election)

(R) Donald Trump 48% (+3)
(D) Joe Biden 45%

1,989 RV | 11/30-12/2
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1467994019510824964?s=20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Their final poll was 54/46 Biden (2020 election)

(R) Donald Trump 48% (+3)
(D) Joe Biden 45%

1,989 RV | 11/30-12/2
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1467994019510824964?s=20

Good thing the election isn't held today. Remember at this time in 2009 when Obama was losing to Mike Huckabee?


Elections are never like these polls because public opinion solidifies after a long & expensive campaign season. Trump will never win the popular vote by three points.

[Bootes Void]

I'm telling you that the GOP should be very happy that Trump got kicked out of twitter

[RFayette]

Based

[Chips]

I do legit wonder if Biden would lose the election if it were held today, even against Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm telling you that the GOP should be very happy that Trump got kicked out of twitter

The Election is a 1000 days away

[Person Man]

Their final poll was 54/46 Biden (2020 election)

(R) Donald Trump 48% (+3)
(D) Joe Biden 45%

1,989 RV | 11/30-12/2
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1467994019510824964?s=20

Good thing the election isn't held today. Remember at this time in 2009 when Obama was losing to Mike Huckabee?


Elections are never like these polls because public opinion solidifies after a long & expensive campaign season. Trump will never win the popular vote by three points.

Mondale was even with Reagan in the first poll by Gallup for 1984, right?

OTOH, if Trump was 3 point up in even this time two years from now and he was ahead in the average, I would say that he's probably going to win.

[SnowLabrador]

For all those people saying Biden can win in 2024: How? He barely won against Trump with the nation collapsing. In addition, he's virtually guaranteed to lose both chambers of Congress in 2022, and then he won't be able to do anything. Biden said he wanted to be the next FDR, but he forgot the part when FDR used his bully pulpit. Trump will win and it won't be close.

[Umengus]

I'm telling you that the GOP should be very happy that Trump got kicked out of twitter

agree

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

They now have more
https://mcusercontent.com/ca678077bc522bd7bd74bacbf/files/420beaf6-8cb5-04e6-02db-69814f5573fb/HHP_November_vF_002_.pdf


Trump 48 (+3)
Biden 45

Trump 48 (+11)
Buttigieg 37

Trump 50 (+9)
Harris 41

Biden 43 (+6)
DeSantis 36

Harris 42 (+5)
DeSantis 37


DeSantis 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris is -9

[Tekken_Guy]

They now have more
https://mcusercontent.com/ca678077bc522bd7bd74bacbf/files/420beaf6-8cb5-04e6-02db-69814f5573fb/HHP_November_vF_002_.pdf


Trump 48 (+3)
Biden 45

Trump 48 (+11)
Buttigieg 37

Trump 50 (+9)
Harris 41

Biden 43 (+6)
DeSantis 36

Harris 42 (+5)
DeSantis 37


DeSantis 

This seems to be largely a name recognition either. Biden and Harris aren't really getting higher percentages against DeSantis then they are against Trump.

[RFayette]

They now have more
https://mcusercontent.com/ca678077bc522bd7bd74bacbf/files/420beaf6-8cb5-04e6-02db-69814f5573fb/HHP_November_vF_002_.pdf


Trump 48 (+3)
Biden 45

Trump 48 (+11)
Buttigieg 37

Trump 50 (+9)
Harris 41

Biden 43 (+6)
DeSantis 36

Harris 42 (+5)
DeSantis 37


DeSantis 

This seems to be largely a name recognition either. Biden and Harris aren't really getting higher percentages against DeSantis then they are against Trump.

Yeah, my rule-of-thumb would be to assume DeSantis would perform 3-5 points better than Trump in the PV at the end of the day; at this point this seems to just be due to low name recognition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only state DeSantis would carry is GA and Trump is too polarizing for that to win, other than that Biden will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poll is hogwash Biden is 48 in IPSOS POLL

[pbrower2a]

De Sadist will be a brittle target for potshots on COVID-19.

Do you remember when we had updates on deaths from COVID-19? De Sadist has stopped the recording of the lethal statistics from his state.   

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

For all those people saying Biden can win in 2024: How? He barely won against Trump with the nation collapsing. In addition, he's virtually guaranteed to lose both chambers of Congress in 2022, and then he won't be able to do anything. Biden said he wanted to be the next FDR, but he forgot the part when FDR used his bully pulpit. Trump will win and it won't be close.

FDR also had absolutely massive congressional majorities to work with when passing his agenda. The Democratic Party of the first half of the 20th century was the biggest of the biggest tents.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For all those people saying Biden can win in 2024: How? He barely won against Trump with the nation collapsing. In addition, he's virtually guaranteed to lose both chambers of Congress in 2022, and then he won't be able to do anything. Biden said he wanted to be the next FDR, but he forgot the part when FDR used his bully pulpit. Trump will win and it won't be close.

FDR also had absolutely massive congressional majorities to work with when passing his agenda. The Democratic Party of the first half of the 20th century was the biggest of the biggest tents.

Ehh, Id say more the Mid 20th century(so early 1930s-late 1960s) as Republicans pretty much dominated politics in the early 20th century and Id say they were the ones with a massive tent in those days.

[Use Your Illusion]

The GOP has managed to win the popular vote once in my lifetime (2004) and I was born about 3 weeks after election day 1988. You're telling me the country is gonna go crawling back to Orange Boii after he got clown pounded by 7 million votes? Exactly how is that supposed to work? That 7 million spread is supposed to come solely from CA and NY or something?

[SN2903]

I'm telling you that the GOP should be very happy that Trump got kicked out of twitter

Biggest mistake dems ever made

[SN2903]

The GOP has managed to win the popular vote once in my lifetime (2004) and I was born about 3 weeks after election day 1988. You're telling me the country is gonna go crawling back to Orange Boii after he got clown pounded by 7 million votes? Exactly how is that supposed to work? That 7 million spread is supposed to come solely from CA and NY or something?

Biden is at 30% approval with independents. This isn't turning around. Dems can absolutely lose the pv in 2024. It's at least 50/50 in my opinion. Democrats are seen as too left for the average voter right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm telling you that the GOP should be very happy that Trump got kicked out of twitter

Biggest mistake dems ever made

It's 1000 days til the Election

[Senator Incitatus]

The GOP has managed to win the popular vote once in my lifetime (2004) and I was born about 3 weeks after election day 1988. You're telling me the country is gonna go crawling back to Orange Boii after he got clown pounded by 7 million votes? Exactly how is that supposed to work? That 7 million spread is supposed to come solely from CA and NY or something?

Biden is at 30% approval with independents. This isn't turning around. Dems can absolutely lose the pv in 2024. It's at least 50/50 in my opinion. Democrats are seen as too left for the average voter right now.

I think the "PV" has a bimodal distribution, which suggests Republican odds of winning it are much higher than expected, because if Biden really looks doomed in October 2024, turnout in New York and California is going to be abysmal. In a close race I'd expect something more another D+3 or +4 margin again.

[Pericles]

For all those people saying Biden can win in 2024: How? He barely won against Trump with the nation collapsing. In addition, he's virtually guaranteed to lose both chambers of Congress in 2022, and then he won't be able to do anything. Biden said he wanted to be the next FDR, but he forgot the part when FDR used his bully pulpit. Trump will win and it won't be close.

2024 is going to be so much better than 2020 so Biden can coast on that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now Trump can beat Biden but we don't knpw after 2022 Election it's so much time between now and 2022/24