Privately, several Democratic strategists have advise their clients not to focus on abortion

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1467500803523059721?t=wvX6i3LDn_dJfu14D4f...

[SWE]

"You know that thing where our position is overwhelmingly the more popular one? Yeah don't ever bring that up." Makes sense that these people are democratic strategists

[7,052,770]

I mean, South Dakota and Mississippi voters rejected abortion bans by double digits. Granted, that's been a while, but it's pretty clear there's a mismatch between voter opinion and politician opinion on this issue, one that Democrats could be able to capitalize on if the pro-choice Republican voters think abortion rights are going away.

[Mister Mets]

"You know that thing where our position is overwhelmingly the more popular one? Yeah don't ever bring that up." Makes sense that these people are democratic strategists

Elections are local.

How motivated will voters be about abortion rights in another state?

Within a swing state with Republican control (Georgia, Arizona, Florida) this may be a bigger issue.

[Suburbia]

"You know that thing where our position is overwhelmingly the more popular one? Yeah don't ever bring that up." Makes sense that these people are democratic strategists

[Mr. Smith]

Abortion is literally the only thing the otherwise conservative, Blue Dog, Sinema-esque crawlers can actually agree to support, it's the only litmus test.

I'm pro-life ftr.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Are these Democratic strategists stuck in the 80s/early 90s?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Are these Democratic strategists stuck in the 80s/early 90s?

I sometimes wonder if Carville isn’t a reanimated crayfish.

[BG-NY]

I agree. I am someone who is pro-choice, but it seems the pro-lifers have won the messaging war on this issue. Overturning Roe has something like 30% of national support, but pro-life polls at parity with pro-choice. Even if Roe is overturned I don't expect this to change much, and many people will blame the party in power if it is overturned anyway.

[VBM]

"You know that thing where our position is overwhelmingly the more popular one? Yeah don't ever bring that up." Makes sense that these people are democratic strategists

The problem is that there are a lot more single-issue pro-life voters than single-issue pro-choice voters

[DaleCooper]

Abortion does not affect enough voters' lives for it to be a winning issue. When the economy is bad, many voters will feel insulted if the party is getting up in arms about abortion restrictions. I agree with these strategists that the only reason to "focus" (if you can call it that) on abortion is to point out that Republicans care more about their culture war crusade than they do the American economy.

[7,052,770]

Abortion does not affect enough voters' lives for it to be a winning issue. When the economy is bad, many voters will feel insulted if the party is getting up in arms about abortion restrictions. I agree with these strategists that the only reason to "focus" (if you can call it that) on abortion is to point out that Republicans care more about their culture war crusade than they do the American economy.

It seems that way, but something like 30-40% of women of childbearing age have had one. That's a mind-boggling stat because I don't know anyone who has, but actually I almost certainly do and they just haven't told me.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Abortion does not affect enough voters' lives for it to be a winning issue. When the economy is bad, many voters will feel insulted if the party is getting up in arms about abortion restrictions. I agree with these strategists that the only reason to "focus" (if you can call it that) on abortion is to point out that Republicans care more about their culture war crusade than they do the American economy.

It seems that way, but something like 30-40% of women of childbearing age have had one. That's a mind-boggling stat because I don't know anyone who has, but actually I almost certainly do and they just haven't told me.

This matters less when you consider that "women of child-bearing age" (and their male partners) is shrinking as a proportion of the electorate. Plenty of otherwise pro-life people only become pro-choice when they consider the option and some of these revert to type when that window has passed.

This is a big part of why social views on abortion have not moved to the extent that certain others have over the last few decades, and it will continue to affect public opinion as the electorate continues to age.

[kwabbit]

It can be a winning issue if the Republican nominee is an extremist social conservative, but besides that it doesn't win too many votes for Democrats. The fact is that it's very difficult for anyone that isn't affected by an abortion ban to feel strongly enough to be motivated by the issue.

Beto will probably hold up better in Texas suburbs with a lot of young, liberal transplants who are more strongly pro-choice, but talking about Greg Abbott and Mississippi isn't going to save Democrats from losing in the Midwest. Overplaying their hand might even hurt them in Georgia, where the Democratic base is majority Black.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Are these Democratic strategists stuck in the 80s/early 90s?

I sometimes wonder if Carville isn’t a reanimated crayfish.

Carville isn't a reanimated anything. He probably made some Dorian Gray pact after winning Bubba the '92 election and thus has remained in total stasis since while some LSU paraphernalia in his house grows old and cynical and covered in various tears and lesions.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It can be a winning issue if the Republican nominee is an extremist social conservative, but besides that it doesn't win too many votes for Democrats. The fact is that it's very difficult for anyone that isn't affected by an abortion ban to feel strongly enough to be motivated by the issue.

Beto will probably hold up better in Texas suburbs with a lot of young, liberal transplants who are more strongly pro-choice, but talking about Greg Abbott and Mississippi isn't going to save Democrats from losing in the Midwest. Overplaying their hand might even hurt them in Georgia, where the Democratic base is majority Black.

About 1/5 of Trump’s voters in most Midwestern states (more in some cases) were pro-choice

[Schiff for Senate]

"You know that thing where our position is overwhelmingly the more popular one? Yeah don't ever bring that up." Makes sense that these people are democratic strategists

Most people have mixed views on abortion. The only way you can misconstrue this as being that most people agree with the Democrats on abortion is if you are saying Democrats are a broad tent party when it comes to abortion. Not the case at all. In fact a majority of people's position on abortion is probably to the right of the Democrats' (and a majority of people's position on abortion is also probably to the left of the Republicans').

[Mr.Phips]

What the hell do these Democratic “strategists” know anyway?  They have been losing key elections  for Democrats for decades now.  Who is even paying these losers?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

It can be a winning issue if the Republican nominee is an extremist social conservative, but besides that it doesn't win too many votes for Democrats. The fact is that it's very difficult for anyone that isn't affected by an abortion ban to feel strongly enough to be motivated by the issue.

Beto will probably hold up better in Texas suburbs with a lot of young, liberal transplants who are more strongly pro-choice, but talking about Greg Abbott and Mississippi isn't going to save Democrats from losing in the Midwest. Overplaying their hand might even hurt them in Georgia, where the Democratic base is majority Black.

Even then, the GOP has to have candidates who make cringeworthy statements or have cringeworthy personalities like Todd Akin (who was less cringe in real life than he came off as) or Richard Mourdock (who had a rather smarmy personality and beat an iconic Senator (Dick Lugar) in a primary.

The problem that Democrats have is in what limitations they would put on legal aboriton.  Allowing abortion up to the point of birth on demand (the radical Ralph Northam/Andrew Cuomo positons) cause people to recoil from candidates, even when the other guy is a Fuzzy Bear pro-lifer.  The more a Democrat talks about abortion, the less they are able to "keep it vague".  Very few people believe in the right of someone to a ninth month abortion because they see that fetus as a human that could survive.  That's where SOME Democrats have gone already, however.  As a strategy matter, these are the kind of quagmires a Democrat like, say, Abby Spanberger, ought to avoid like the plague.

[beaver2.0]

I haven't been in any of these meetings so I have no idea what is being said but if I was a strategist, I'd probably say that a hyperfocus on abortion and other social issues is not helping Democrats.  Certainly they should be mentioned, but I think Democrats need to focus on bread and butter issues.

[_.]

I agree. I am someone who is pro-choice, but it seems the pro-lifers have won the messaging war on this issue. Overturning Roe has something like 30% of national support, but pro-life polls at parity with pro-choice. Even if Roe is overturned I don't expect this to change much, and many people will blame the party in power if it is overturned anyway.

I respectfully disagree. It could easily be looked at both ways.

Overturning Roe has something like 30% of national support, but a full 70% of Americans believe there should be some restrictions on abortion (and Roe v. Wade mandates that there can never be any restrictions on abortion in the US, even in the third trimester).

I'd personally argue that the pro-life groups suck at messaging, as it often doesn't get through to the public just how radical Roe v. Wade really is (in comparison to public opinion). Instead, they manage to slip up with actually unpopular fights, such as the vigilante $10K provision they added to a Texas law which actually may have been popular otherwise (notwithstanding the media blitzkrieg that occurs on any chance that the elite may not get their precious abortions).

[PSOL]

Not building core support by taking a side on controversial issues involving core voter groups is a bad idea for winning elections, too bad that isn’t cared for by the Democratic Party.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I mean, South Dakota and Mississippi voters rejected abortion bans by double digits. Granted, that's been a while, but it's pretty clear there's a mismatch between voter opinion and politician opinion on this issue, one that Democrats could be able to capitalize on if the pro-choice Republican voters think abortion rights are going away.

People don't support total abortion bans, but the vast majority of people are also against all abortion being legal.

[Hammy]

Are these Democratic strategists stuck in the 80s/early 90s?

The entire party is.

[Indy Texas]

There is asymmetry in intensity on this issue.

I think abortion should be provided in any case where a patient desires it and the doctor deems it appropriate (in other words, the same we we handle every other medical procedure that's performed in this country).

There are some people who think abortion is not a medical procedure, but rather, is murder.

Who do you think is going to be more animated by the issue? Who do you think is more likely to make it a "do or die" priority?

We've all read plenty of man-on-the-street political pieces where someone who demographically/economically would benefit from Democratic policies says, "I just could never vote for a politician who's okay with killing babies."

You know what you literally never see? People saying, "Gee, I think the Republican Party has a lot of great ideas, but I just can't vote for people who would restrict abortion rights."

The pro-choice hedge fund executive whose wife is on the board of the local Planned Parenthood chapter is going to vote Republican because he wants his tax cuts.

The low-income pro-life family in Tennessee would rather go without healthcare because they voted for "pro-life" politicians who won't expand Medicaid, than vote for the "pro-abort" party that wants to help them.