Nevada-Trafalgar- Laxalt +3

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1466892216438247424

[Xing]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it looks like an R bloodbath say hello to R Congress next yr

[SnowLabrador]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

[Xing]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

My point is that NV-PRES compared to the NPV isn't necessarily a good indicator of where this race will end up, especially in a good environment for Republicans. I could see an environment as bad as R+7 for Democrats, but this will not be a 9-point win for Republicans, even in that scenario.

[Skill and Chance]

NV is clearly the most vulnerable Dem-held seat.

[Roll Roons]

NV is clearly the most vulnerable Dem-held seat.

I think so as well. Mark Kelly is also very vulnerable, but benefits from AZ Republicans having a late and bloody primary and the possibility of a weak gubernatorial candidate hurting the ticket.

Warnock and Hassan could still lose depending on the environment, but demographic trends are just so ugly in GA and NH Republicans have a crowded field of mediocre candidates running in a very late primary.

[Mr.Phips]

I was thinking that AZ was the Dems’ most vulnerable seat, but beginning to think this one is even more so.

[Minnesota Mike]

"Trafalgar". "Sean Hannity Show". Forgive me if I'm skeptical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we Default on the Debt Ceiling, Ds polls are gonna go bad to worse, there is no agreement on the Debt Ceiling

[Roll Roons]

"Trafalgar". "Sean Hannity Show". Forgive me if I'm skeptical.

Trafalgar's final poll of NJ was way more accurate than supposedly great Monmouth.

[MT Treasurer]

NV is clearly the most vulnerable Dem-held seat.

I wouldn’t say that it’s "clearly" the most vulnerable D-held seat or that Kelly is in a much better position than Cortez Masto. I think the gap between NV/AZ is fairly negligible and Republicans are very likely to flip both races.

[ꙮ]

Honestly surprising Trafalgar is only showing R+3 here.

[libertpaulian]

Say what you will about Trafalgar, but whoever runs that poll seems to have a good pulse on the mood of white voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't polls in Nevada have difficulty reaching Spanish-speaking Latinos?

[Malarkey Decider]

For refrence, Trafalgar had Trump +1 in Nevada.

Nevada is lean R because of national environment, but htis isn't a bad poll for democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For refrence, Trafalgar had Trump +1 in Nevada.

Nevada is lean R because of national environment, but htis isn't a bad poll for democrats.

Biden won NV by 2 and they had Trump ahead by 1? Interesting. Assuming they have the same house effect as they had then, this poll really has a pretty much dead-even race.

[Malarkey Decider]

For refrence, Trafalgar had Trump +1 in Nevada.

Nevada is lean R because of national environment, but htis isn't a bad poll for democrats.

Biden won NV by 2 and they had Trump ahead by 1? Interesting. Assuming they have the same house effect as they had then, this poll really has a pretty much dead-even race.

I mean, Margin of Errors exist, they had a really good year overall in 2020.

Their Nevada results in 2018 though (Heller +3, Laxalt +2) were bad though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For refrence, Trafalgar had Trump +1 in Nevada.

Nevada is lean R because of national environment, but htis isn't a bad poll for democrats.

Biden won NV by 2 and they had Trump ahead by 1? Interesting. Assuming they have the same house effect as they had then, this poll really has a pretty much dead-even race.

I mean, Margin of Errors exist, they had a really good year overall in 2020.

Their Nevada results in 2018 though (Heller +3, Laxalt +2) were bad though.

Nevada is a hard state to poll, isn't it?

[Malarkey Decider]

For refrence, Trafalgar had Trump +1 in Nevada.

Nevada is lean R because of national environment, but htis isn't a bad poll for democrats.

Biden won NV by 2 and they had Trump ahead by 1? Interesting. Assuming they have the same house effect as they had then, this poll really has a pretty much dead-even race.

I mean, Margin of Errors exist, they had a really good year overall in 2020.

Their Nevada results in 2018 though (Heller +3, Laxalt +2) were bad though.

Nevada is a hard state to poll, isn't it?

Historically, Yes. Though at this point, I'm not sure that it is compared to other battleground states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WARNOCK is not up six, the polls showed a Landslide for Warnock in Jan bit Traggy always had GA close until Traggy polls GA, Warnock is still vulnerable

[Vosem]

Trafalgar is clinically incapable of ever showing a Democratic blowout for anything, and so they miss pretty hard in races which actually are Democratic blowouts (like CA-Gov '21), but apart from that they're an above-average pollster in good standing.

Also, all early Nevada polling conducted by reputable pollsters, going back to like the 2012 cycle, has an insane number of undecideds. NV is actually a pretty elastic state and it's probably capable of giving both parties epic landslides, though only 2014 Republicans have gotten to enjoy that recently.

(Also, and this isn't really relevant for a Senate race but I like to bring it up when Nevada politics is brought up: NV is one of the states that has already passed through the looking glass, where Democrats have a geography advantage because their advantage in urban areas is not as large and insane as the Republican advantage in rural areas, so it is the GOP that wastes votes in the desert, rather than the Democrats who waste votes in the cities. IA is another example of a place which has gone through the looking glass, and TX looks like it's come pretty close to that point.)

[YE]

Nevada is not an elastic state period short of a catastrophic recession or labor sitting an election out. Every other major statewide election unless there was a popular incumbent in a time where that actually mattered has been highly competitive dating back to the late 90’s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nevada is not an elastic state period short of a catastrophic recession or labor sitting an election out. Every other major statewide election unless there was a popular incumbent in a time where that actually mattered has been highly competitive dating back to the late 90’s.

Biden will bounce back but these Labor Shortages are hurting him, he need more workers as the Jobs report which had 1M jobs over the summer is failing


But for now there is a red wave going on, it won't take much for a red wave anyhow our Majority is very narrow

[2016]

Sample of the NV Poll

D41/I22/R37