Nevada-Trafalgar- Laxalt +3

[I’m not Stu]

Isn’t Nevada a mostly pro-choice state?

[Mr.Phips]

Sample of the NV Poll

D41/I22/R37

Not unreasonable.

[2016]

Sample of the NV Poll

D41/I22/R37

Not unreasonable.

Nevada Exit Polls in 2020 (GOP Midterm) showed
D 35 / 32 I / 33 R

Snippet from CBS NEWS
One of the reasons the election is close is that the political party make-up in the election is 35% Democrat, 33% Republican and 32% independent. The independents are barely supporting Angle by four points (48% vs. 44%).

Also
President Obama was underwater in NV in 2010
A majority of voters disapprove of President Obama's job performance and they strongly support Angle (79%).

So I think the Independent Number (22 %) in this Sample by Trafalgar is a bit low otherwise you're the sample seems ok.

[kwabbit]

Decent poll for CCM given it's Trafalgar. That being said, we aren't going to really know what the landscape is like for many months. Early GCB polls aren't very predictive and good pollsters won't be in the field for at least six months, especially in a state like Nevada that gets underpolled.

Cook's system of Lean D or Tossup until proven otherwise is a good system IMO. I think Laxalt is favored and I'd honestly be surprised if 1. The environment doesn't become one where Nevada isn't at least Tilt R and 2. CCM can overperform enough where this race doesn't become a product of the environment, but until we know both those things this race should be considered a toss up with some deference to the incumbent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls spell trouble for Biden as the nominee for 24 if we lose, there will be a calling out for Harris to be Nominated in 24

[ElectionsGuy]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

My point is that NV-PRES compared to the NPV isn't necessarily a good indicator of where this race will end up, especially in a good environment for Republicans. I could see an environment as bad as R+7 for Democrats, but this will not be a 9-point win for Republicans, even in that scenario.

Do you have any good reasoning as to why this'll be true?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Well it looks like an R bloodbath say hello to R Congress next yr

🛑 playing it's still 300 days to election

[2016]

Decent poll for CCM given it's Trafalgar. That being said, we aren't going to really know what the landscape is like for many months. Early GCB polls aren't very predictive and good pollsters won't be in the field for at least six months, especially in a state like Nevada that gets underpolled.

Cook's system of Lean D or Tossup until proven otherwise is a good system IMO. I think Laxalt is favored and I'd honestly be surprised if 1. The environment doesn't become one where Nevada isn't at least Tilt R and 2. CCM can overperform enough where this race doesn't become a product of the environment, but until we know both those things this race should be considered a toss up with some deference to the incumbent.

Throw out these GCB Polls. The biggest Indicator how the 2022 Midterms will go is the Presidents Job Approval:

2018
President Trumps Job Approval 45 % Approve / 54 % Disapprove

House Vote: Democrat: 60,572,245 = 53.4 % / Republican: 50,861,970 = 44.8 %

As you can see Republicans got basically the same Percentage on the House Vote to President Trumps Job Approval.

2014
President Obamas Job Approval 44 % Approve / 55 % Disapprove

House Vote: Republican: 40,081,282 = 51.2 % / Democrat: 35,624,357 = 45.5 %

Senate Vote: Republican: 23,253,636 = 51.5 % / Democrat: 19,786,883 = 43.8 %

2014 Senate Democrats got the same Percentage of the Vote like President Obamas JA was.

2010
President Obamas Job Approval 45 % Approve / 54 % Disapprove

House Vote: Republican: 44,829,751 = 51.7 % / Democrat: 38,980,192 = 44.9 %

The Democrats Success in 2022 is TIED to President Bidens JA. 1st Term Midterms are always a Referendum on the President no matter what shenanigans Democrats might pull next year. Watch President Bidens JA closely and ignore all the GCB Polls who say Dems are winning like from YouGov while Bidens JA sits underwater. These Pollsters haven't learned at all.

[Xing]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

My point is that NV-PRES compared to the NPV isn't necessarily a good indicator of where this race will end up, especially in a good environment for Republicans. I could see an environment as bad as R+7 for Democrats, but this will not be a 9-point win for Republicans, even in that scenario.

Do you have any good reasoning as to why this'll be true?

Because Laxalt would have to outright win Clark county by at least 3 points and win Washoe by high single digits or more. This would be akin to Masto winning Carson City and coming within single digits in a rural county. Even under extremely favorable circumstances for their party, that’s just not happening. There’s zero evidence Laxalt has any crossover appeal.

[GALeftist]

Decent poll for CCM given it's Trafalgar. That being said, we aren't going to really know what the landscape is like for many months. Early GCB polls aren't very predictive and good pollsters won't be in the field for at least six months, especially in a state like Nevada that gets underpolled.

Cook's system of Lean D or Tossup until proven otherwise is a good system IMO. I think Laxalt is favored and I'd honestly be surprised if 1. The environment doesn't become one where Nevada isn't at least Tilt R and 2. CCM can overperform enough where this race doesn't become a product of the environment, but until we know both those things this race should be considered a toss up with some deference to the incumbent.

Throw out these GCB Polls. The biggest Indicator how the 2022 Midterms will go is the Presidents Job Approval:

2018
President Trumps Job Approval 45 % Approve / 54 % Disapprove

House Vote: Democrat: 60,572,245 = 53.4 % / Republican: 50,861,970 = 44.8 %

As you can see Republicans got basically the same Percentage on the House Vote to President Trumps Job Approval.

2014
President Obamas Job Approval 44 % Approve / 55 % Disapprove

House Vote: Republican: 40,081,282 = 51.2 % / Democrat: 35,624,357 = 45.5 %

Senate Vote: Republican: 23,253,636 = 51.5 % / Democrat: 19,786,883 = 43.8 %

2014 Senate Democrats got the same Percentage of the Vote like President Obamas JA was.

2010
President Obamas Job Approval 45 % Approve / 54 % Disapprove

House Vote: Republican: 44,829,751 = 51.7 % / Democrat: 38,980,192 = 44.9 %

The Democrats Success in 2022 is TIED to President Bidens JA. 1st Term Midterms are always a Referendum on the President no matter what shenanigans Democrats might pull next year. Watch President Bidens JA closely and ignore all the GCB Polls who say Dems are winning like from YouGov while Bidens JA sits underwater. These Pollsters haven't learned at all.

That's really interesting, 2016. I have this weird memory, though, of there being this high-profile statewide race in 2010 which you seem to have omitted here for whatever reason. Might just be my imagination, of course.

[ElectionsGuy]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

My point is that NV-PRES compared to the NPV isn't necessarily a good indicator of where this race will end up, especially in a good environment for Republicans. I could see an environment as bad as R+7 for Democrats, but this will not be a 9-point win for Republicans, even in that scenario.

Do you have any good reasoning as to why this'll be true?

Because Laxalt would have to outright win Clark county by at least 3 points and win Washoe by high single digits or more. This would be akin to Masto winning Carson City and coming within single digits in a rural county. Even under extremely favorable circumstances for their party, that’s just not happening. There’s zero evidence Laxalt has any crossover appeal.

He would have to win Clark County, but not necessarily by 3 points. He could win Clark by 1 Washoe by 6 and landslide the rest of the state. I think you just have this idea that those counties are super inflexible and can't go outside a certain range no matter what, which is really just a feeling. We haven't seen an R-leaning election in Nevada since 2014, and those were mostly landslides, so it's difficult to draw comparisons but it doesn't mean it's impossible.

[Xing]

If the environment ends up being R+6-7, then this result is definitely plausible, though that is a lot of undecideds. I do feel pretty confident in saying that this race will not vote 2% to the right of the GCB.

It's not unthinkable, that's about where NV-PRES was in 2020.

My point is that NV-PRES compared to the NPV isn't necessarily a good indicator of where this race will end up, especially in a good environment for Republicans. I could see an environment as bad as R+7 for Democrats, but this will not be a 9-point win for Republicans, even in that scenario.

Do you have any good reasoning as to why this'll be true?

Because Laxalt would have to outright win Clark county by at least 3 points and win Washoe by high single digits or more. This would be akin to Masto winning Carson City and coming within single digits in a rural county. Even under extremely favorable circumstances for their party, that’s just not happening. There’s zero evidence Laxalt has any crossover appeal.

He would have to win Clark County, but not necessarily by 3 points. He could win Clark by 1 Washoe by 6 and landslide the rest of the state. I think you just have this idea that those counties are super inflexible and can't go outside a certain range no matter what, which is really just a feeling. We haven't seen an R-leaning election in Nevada since 2014, and those were mostly landslides, so it's difficult to draw comparisons but it doesn't mean it's impossible.

I don't think they're completely inflexible, but I also don't think a 10-point swing will just happen along with the national environment in a county like Clark. Similarly, I wouldn't expect a Democrat to win it by 20 in a Democratic wave year. Even if that kind of a swing isn't impossible, I don't think Laxalt is the Republican to pull it off (that would be Sandoval.) While Florida isn't a perfect comparison, and I'm not saying that Nevada won't flip even in a R+9 year, it does demonstrate that certain types of margins in competitive states simply don't happen outside of very specific circumstances, and not in Generic D vs. Generic R races, and that some states aren't really beholden to the national environment as much as others (the Midwest in particular.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Throw it in the averages the race is not sewn up yet NV is a swing state