OK, so I got bored, and I decided to discuss possible elections in the future
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  OK, so I got bored, and I decided to discuss possible elections in the future
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Author Topic: OK, so I got bored, and I decided to discuss possible elections in the future  (Read 2724 times)
auburntiger
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« on: October 19, 2006, 03:31:58 PM »
« edited: October 19, 2006, 04:48:05 PM by auburntiger »

2006, Dems take the Senate and the House

2008, the GOP nominates John McCain and Mike Huckabee
          the DNC nominates Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson

As expected, the GOP wins, but not by a massive landslide. Given the GOP is in trouble with the Iraq war, but National Security becomes the main issue and the American people trust McCain more than Hillary.

The map:


McCain wins 321-217 on Election Day 2008. McCain wins NM by 0.06%

During the McCain/Huckabee administration, McCain has a stroke, and is no longer able to run the country. Huckabee takes over as Acting President in 2011 about a year and a half before 2012.

Meanwhile, there have been no terrorist attacks during McCain's administration, so the country focuses more on the economy and Social Security and other domestic issues. Huckabee does a great job trying to eliminate the deficit, except there still is one, and the campaign will hanner him on how there is still a deficit, even though it is much lower than under Bush. But America is tired of the GOP, so it gives the Dems a shot...

Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia emerges as an early front runner along with Bayh, Obama, Feingold, NY governor Elliot Spitzer, and MT governor Schwietzer (dark horse)
Evan Bayh moves to the left a little where Warner continues too much to be the "centrist" candidate and gets beaten narrowly by Bayh.
Bayh then picks Barack Obama as his VP

In the GOP primary, Acting President Mike Huckabee receives the nomination with challenges from Mike Pence (elected senator of IN in 2010 when Lugar retires), Lamar Alexander, and fmr. governor Tim Pawlenty.

Huckabee picks Pawlenty to try to win some midwestern states.

So Election Day 2012, Bayh/Obama defeats Huckabee/Pawlenty narrowly but clearly:

with the new EV totals, Bayh's total comes out to 290-248, not 298-240.
Gain of 1 EV = CA, NV, UT, WA, NM, GA, SC, VA
Loss of 1 EV = KS, MO, LA, MN, IA, IL, PA, MA, NJ, MI, and WV
Gain of 2 EV = AZ, TX, FL, NC
Loss of 2 EV = OH
Loss of 3 EV = NY



The Bayh administration is able to work with both houses of Congress (both are Dem now) on passing legislation to raise taxes and make a surplus in the budget. Domestic America goes well for the first two years, but then a monumental terrorist attack hits the West Coast of the United States, Seattle on 08-11-15, and LA on 08-20-15.

(by the way, Dino Rossi has been elected governor of Washington in 2008, which he won by 10 points against inc. Christine Gregorie, and then re-election by 15 points in 2012.) Gov. Rossi declares a state of emergency. This time the terrorists are known from Syria.

However, in the aftermath, the economy becomes lagging again. Bayh's response to the attacks are that he doesn't go into Syria and try to topple their regime and doesn't want to make the mistakes Bush made. Half of America wants war, half doesn't. Unlike Bush did during his administration, Bayh goes to the UN and asks for Syria be attacked. The UN somehow agrees that no action should be taken because it would be against the Geneva Convention (ridiculous, I know, but let's go with it.)

Bayh goes into Syria anyway and demands that Syria stop making plans to attack the West, but doesn't really harshly deal with them as he should have. Americans are outraged by this less than stellar and harsh repsonse to these people and Bayh's approval ratings take a dive in late 2015.

Meanwhile, Gov. Rossi's popularity has soared in response to Seattle's being attacked, and he decides to run for President.

Frm. Governor Mark Warner challenges Bayh again in the 2016 Dem Primaries. The democrats fight tooth and nail to try to steal the nomination from Bayh, but Bayh clinches...barely and Obama is still the VP.

Bayh's campaign stresses that we shuldn't go to war and have more people suffer for war. "Look at Iraw and what it did." So the anti-war people are satisfied, but that's about it. He climbs a bit in the polls since no war is going on, but overall, Bayh is seen as soft on national security.

Meanwhile, the GOP surprisingly unites around Dino Rossi, a moderate to liberal on social issues (I think), but is seen tough on national security and a hero after the August '15 terrorist attacks. He picks senator and Fmr. rival Mike Pence of Indiana to run with him to solidify the conservative base.

Meanwhile Bayh's campign falls apart, and he loses all three debates to Rossi, as Rossi hammers away at him on the economy and most importantly NATIONAL SECURITY.

ON Election Day 2016, Rossi sweeps to victory 389-149 and comes within 1 point of winning California. NJ is also very close but goes GOP this time.


The Rossi/Pence administration hits off with the American people as a fresh new approach to finally winning the War on Terror. The American people are still pissed off at the way Bayh handled things. Congress is now in GOP hands in the Senate but DEM in the House, but there is a unanimous deccision to punish Syria for the American hostages they took + making them sorry they ever messed with us. Rossi goes into Syria...only, and retaliates for what they did to us. The "war lasts for 5 months with minimal casulaties, and the Al-Qaeda is finally brought to its knees. WE are fully withdrawn from ANY oil dependence, or troops. After our work is done there, we become less active in world affairs, which is what people want after two decades dealing with the MIddle East terrortists.

The Election of 2020 is no contest... Fmr. NY governor Elliot SPitzer gets the nomination and wins only DC, his home state of NY (duh), MA, and RI.



Nnow that I'm getting lazy and tired now...
The end of the world takes place on New Years Day 2021, when the Battle of armegeddon takes place and blows the whole world up

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NewFederalist
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2006, 05:11:16 PM »

Wow! You WERE bored! Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2006, 05:23:51 PM »

Nice, although Rossi isn't a social liberal at all. Wink
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auburntiger
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2006, 05:57:11 PM »

Oh ok. Is he running for governor again in 2008? Just curious
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2006, 06:28:30 PM »

Oh ok. Is he running for governor again in 2008? Just curious

I imagine so.
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ottermax
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2006, 07:21:20 PM »

If Rossi ran for president, I would probably only vote for him because he is a Washingtonian, and we've never had a president from my state.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2006, 10:24:13 PM »

If Rossi ran for president, I would probably only vote for him because he is a Washingtonian, and we've never had a president from my state.

Where does Rossi stand on the issues?  I am only vaguely aware that he is moderately conservative, somewhat like Dave Reichert, but that's about it.  Would you (or anyone else) happen to have more information on this guy who will likely become Washington's next governor?
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auburntiger
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2006, 10:55:00 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2006, 10:59:53 PM by auburntiger »

Nice, although Rossi isn't a social liberal at all. Wink

I thought West Coast Republicans were more socially liberal than you say, but then again, there aren't too many statewide elected Republicans out there.

Wasn't the margin for Washington's governor's race like 0.0001% or something 10 times as close as Florida 2000

How left to the national average is Washington. This is one state I know little about. Could either of you elaborate
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2006, 11:13:06 PM »

Nice, although Rossi isn't a social liberal at all. Wink

I thought West Coast Republicans were more socially liberal than you say, but then again, there aren't too many statewide elected Republicans out there.

Rossi was polished, seemed like a nice guy, and had a moderate nature to him.  But of the little he talked of social positions, he was pretty conservative (strongly anti-abortion, anti-gay rights).  He probably would have been a pretty non-political governor, but as a President...he'd be Bush-ish.  Gregoire just was a bad candidate.

Wasn't the margin for Washington's governor's race like 0.0001% or something 10 times as close as Florida 2000

The fina margin was 0.0046% - 129 votes of 2,810,058 counted.  At one point, Gregoire led by 0.0003% - a margin of 10 votes; 1,373,051-1,373,041.

How left to the national average is Washington. This is one state I know little about. Could either of you elaborate

Sure.

I think Gerry Daly put it well: "The nation's mood swings towards Kerry, and Washington polls in the leaning towards Kerry range. The nation's mood swings back to parity, and Washington polls in the leaning towards Kerry range. The nation's mood swings towards the President, and Washington polls in the leaning towards Kerry range."

In 2004, Washington was extremely static.  Kerry led by 7 or so in the polling pretty much the entire time.  The end margin was 7.

Overall, I'd say Washington is about 10 points to the left of the nation as a whole.
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bgwah
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2006, 12:01:58 AM »

Dino Rossi is a creationist.

If he did win in 2008, it would be by <1%, not 10%.

I don't know any Gregoire voters who wouldn't vote for her again...
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Colin
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2006, 03:46:05 PM »

See this is problem when people try to predict the future, they get their current biases to affect the outcomes of what they believe will happen in the future. My best advice to anyone who actually tries to write something that doesn't come off as biased is just flip a coin for every decision you have to make since 9 times out of 10 choices in history are completely random.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2006, 04:10:48 PM »

It was all just a random thought that came to me in a light epiphany. lol. but yea, the GOP will rebound and I'll get to see my landslide victory someday
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