My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:
- Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.
- People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.
- Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.
- Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.
- Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.
- Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.
- Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.
- Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.
Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).
