I got some polling insights into GOP gubernatorial primary data and I thought I’d share some of it!

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp (slightly updated after Perdue is running. I still think the primary is 50/50, however, and do NOT count Kemp so easily out!), Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones, Janice McGeachin or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well (if he runs), especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on former senator Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I still wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

What about McSwain? He seems strong to me

[BoiseBoy]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

[Schiff for Senate]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

I dunno how 'popular' Perdue is given that he lost by a point more than Trump did in 2020/2021 and saw decreased margins in rural areas.

[South Dakota Democrat]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Thank you for the information.

[South Dakota Democrat]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

I dunno how 'popular' Kemp Perdue is given that he lost by a point more than Trump did in 2020/2021 and saw decreased margins in rural areas.

[Schiff for Senate]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

I dunno how 'popular' Kemp Perdue is given that he lost by a point more than Trump did in 2020/2021 and saw decreased margins in rural areas.

Oop. Thanks for catching that error; I meant Perdue but wrote Kemp for whatever reason! It's been fixed.

[South Dakota Democrat]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

I dunno how 'popular' Kemp Perdue is given that he lost by a point more than Trump did in 2020/2021 and saw decreased margins in rural areas.

Oop. Thanks for catching that error; I meant Perdue but wrote Kemp for whatever reason! It's been fixed.

No problem, my friend.  I debated just leaving it by my OCD got the better of me.

[THG]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't entirely safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

What about McSwain? He seems strong to me

He hasn't begun campaigning too much but I expect him to get more competitive. Still, Lou is the current frontrunner.

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

Perdue's only indication of potentially running is him tweeting out a diss at Geoff Duncan, but he has never attacked Kemp himself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

People overestimate the power of a Trump endorsement, and Trump endorsees can still lose GOP primaries. Especially if they are running against incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

[THG]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

People overestimate the power of a Trump endorsement, and Trump endorsees can still lose GOP primaries. Especially if they are running against incumbents.

I can't overestimate how true this statement is.

[Roll Roons]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

Take one minute to scroll through her Twitter and you'll see that she's absolutely unhinged. Running a campaign like that will only take you so far. Especially in a state that's not very Trumpy.

And just how McAuliffe flopped in no small part because he ran a single-issue "Orange Man Bad" campaign, Lake will have a hard time if all she runs on is blind Trump worship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

Take one minute to scroll through her Twitter and you'll see that she's absolutely unhinged. Running a campaign like that will only take you so far. Especially in a state that's not very Trumpy.

Hmm, I did see in the News tab when I googled her name this headline:
"Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate appears with Nazi sympathizer and QAnon-linked activists at campaign events"
That's a sure sign of a campaign going swimmingly.

[Utah Neolib]

Lombardo would be a much better nominee than Heller. Salmon or Yee beating Lake would save the GOPs AZ GOV chances.



Really interesting data, thanks for sharing this.

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

I see. That makes sense.
It seems the campaign is already off to a civil start anyway. She's proposed putting security cameras in classrooms, and a Democrat has called her a pervert in response.

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

I see. That makes sense.
It seems the campaign is already off to a civil start anyway. She's proposed putting security cameras in classrooms, and a Democrat has called her a pervert in response.

Arizona is a state full of independents, but neither the Republican or Democratic state parties seem to realize that fact, which is why I believe that AZ will remain purple for a very, very long time.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

snip

Do you have any polling info for Kansas and Vermont GOP Primary?

[THG]

snip

Do you have any polling info for Kansas and Vermont GOP Primary?

No. Hopefully I'll get those soon!