I got some polling insights into GOP gubernatorial primary data and I thought I’d share some of it!

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp (slightly updated after Perdue is running. I still think the primary is 50/50, however, and do NOT count Kemp so easily out!), Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones, Janice McGeachin or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well (if he runs), especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on former senator Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I still wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

[THG]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't entirely safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

What about McSwain? He seems strong to me

He hasn't begun campaigning too much but I expect him to get more competitive. Still, Lou is the current frontrunner.

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well, especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

Given Trump's hatred of Kemp, I expect him to have a tougher time in his primary once the Donald inevitably campaigns for an opponent (Perdue, a popular former Senator, looks likely to enter).

Perdue's only indication of potentially running is him tweeting out a diss at Geoff Duncan, but he has never attacked Kemp himself.

[THG]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

People overestimate the power of a Trump endorsement, and Trump endorsees can still lose GOP primaries. Especially if they are running against incumbents.

I can't overestimate how true this statement is.

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

[THG]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

I see. That makes sense.
It seems the campaign is already off to a civil start anyway. She's proposed putting security cameras in classrooms, and a Democrat has called her a pervert in response.

Arizona is a state full of independents, but neither the Republican or Democratic state parties seem to realize that fact, which is why I believe that AZ will remain purple for a very, very long time.

[THG]

snip

Do you have any polling info for Kansas and Vermont GOP Primary?

No. Hopefully I'll get those soon!

[THG]

As always, thanks for sharing! The only thing that surprises me here is Kemp being this much of a favorite, including against Perdue. How did he turn things around? Was it really only the defense of the election law (which was less restrictive than some of the original proposals and more red meat for the Trump base)/running against out-of-state 'elites' imposing their liberalism on GA and canceling the All-Star Game?

Perdue hasn’t announced anything so he wasn’t included in the poll.

But yes, I can assure you that the voting law absolutely helped. Kemp will comfortably win the primary unless Perdue runs, and even then, I don’t know if Perdue is guaranteed to win considering how weak of a campaigner he has historically been.

[THG]

Ohio R primaries are going to fun to watch. DeWine is vulnerable against Renacci and also that Senate primary with Vance, Mandel, and Timken.

The Senate one will have so many fireworks.

[THG]

My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:

• Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.

• People like Brian Kemp, Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.

• Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well (if he runs), especially with Massachusetts being open.

• Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on former senator Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.

• Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I still wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.

• Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.

• Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.

• Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.

I thought I'd bump this.

I may have been wrong on Kemp as I truly wasn't expecting Perdue to run, but primary polls have indicated that Little is absolutely safe.

[THG]

Have you gotten any intel about GOP Senate primaries?

Some, but not as much. I’ll try to post when I get the full picture!