My friend who works for a non-partisan polling group that specialize in GOP gubernatorial primaries leaked some interesting data to me, and I figured that I might as well share some of them if any of you are interested in primary betting like I am:
- Out of all the GOP governors facing serious primary challenges, the only one who actually has a serious chance of losing is Mike DeWine, who isn't faring well against Jim Renacci of all people.
- People like
Brian Kemp (slightly updated after Perdue is running. I still think the primary is 50/50, however, and do NOT count Kemp so easily out!), Brad Little, and particularly Greg Abbott are not losing their primaries, and I expect all three of them to safely cruise to a primary victory. People like Vernon Jones, Janice McGeachin or Don Huffines are not serious candidates.
- Charlie Baker will probably survive his primary as well (if he runs), especially with Massachusetts being open.
- Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is starting to gain on former senator Dean Heller in Nevada and I wouldn't be shocked if he is the nominee.
- Going to another southwestern state, news-anchor Kari Lake is hardly a shoe-in for the GOP nomination in Arizona. She has a solid floor but a very low celling, and is struggling to crack 30-35% even with weak primary opponents, the Trump endorsement, and her having a decent level of name recognition in the state. I still wouldn't be shocked if she wins, but DO NOT treat her like a shoe-in.
- Going to the rust belt, Rebecca Kleefisch is favored for the GOP gubernatorial nominee as she lacks a serious challenger (Duffy isn't running as of now), and she is fairly well poised against Tony Evers.
- Police Chief Craig is heavily favored in the GOP primary in Michigan.
- Lou Barletta from Pennsylvania is favored in the primary, if hardly a shoe in. He doesn't have any big name challengers that are particularly excellent, however.
In Ohio, Dewine will be fine, too many candidates that are out there to split the vote and Renacci is not a conservative either so a lot of voters will go to Ron Hood or Joe Blystone
