I got some polling insights into GOP gubernatorial primary data and I thought I’d share some of it!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

McGeachin got the Trump endorsement here in Idaho. You think Little still has a good chance to win?

Absolutely. He isn't safe, but by no means is he guaranteed to lose either.

People overestimate the power of a Trump endorsement, and Trump endorsees can still lose GOP primaries. Especially if they are running against incumbents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

Take one minute to scroll through her Twitter and you'll see that she's absolutely unhinged. Running a campaign like that will only take you so far. Especially in a state that's not very Trumpy.

Hmm, I did see in the News tab when I googled her name this headline:
"Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate appears with Nazi sympathizer and QAnon-linked activists at campaign events"
That's a sure sign of a campaign going swimmingly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw THG, thanks a lot for sharing this with us. It's very interesting.
Any idea why Kari Lake is struggling? Newscasters tend to be very strong electoral performers (see: NM-SEN 2020).

She's essentially running a Josh Mandel style campaign in Arizona, and the Maricopa suburbanites who vote in GOP primaries haven't found out about how terrible her campaign is so far.

I expect her to burnout and collapse by August of 2022 when the primary rolls, provided that things continue at this rate.

Yeah that wouldn't be too surprising.
The two questions would be: in what scenarios does she not collapse, and if she does, who is the main beneficary?

in what scenarios does she not collapse

She improves her campaign, stops coming across as as unhinged, moderates her message to be palatable to suburbanites, focuses on education.

and if she does, who is the main beneficiary?

If she does or doesn't collapse?

If she does: Probably Kimberly Yee or Matt Salmon. I don't know who else is running- perhaps a dark horse could take over.

If she doesn't collapse and wins the primary: The primary beneficiary will be the Arizona Democratic Party.

I see. That makes sense.
It seems the campaign is already off to a civil start anyway. She's proposed putting security cameras in classrooms, and a Democrat has called her a pervert in response.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ohio R primaries are going to fun to watch. DeWine is vulnerable against Renacci and also that Senate primary with Vance, Mandel, and Timken.

The Senate one will have so many fireworks.

More fireworks than a Fourth of July celebration