November 8, 2006 will be a sad day for Democrats.

[ucscgaldamez]

This day is suppose to be their day of celebration after the election. But I have some doubts that they will be able to compete against Republicans GOTV efforts. Although I was optimistic a week ago, after looking at individual races, I can't help but feel that Democrats might just make marginal gains in the House and the Senate. Most Republican incumbents are in Republican strongholds (or slightly Republican). Imagine Democrats just picking up 6 house seats and net gain of 2 senate seats. What a nightmare! But looking back at 2004 and everything that was going on; I can't help but feel that Democrats might not do well on Nov. 7th. I hope my prediction is wrong: Can you imagine Dewine winning Ohio due to GOTV, Whitehouse losing to Chaffee because of independents supporting him, or how about Montana prefering the awful Conrad Burns because of the overall Republican trend of the state. Similar predictions can be said of the house, for instance, Republicans keeping FL-16 and pulling an unexpected upset in Texas 22.

Well...what do you guys think?
I will be looking forward to November 8, the day after the election and commenting on this thread...and all our opinions about the overall outcome.

If Democrats cannot pull moderate gains (8-10 house seats, 4 senate seats) then  there is little hope for them come Nov. 2008 unless they really invest in GOTV efforts. This is crucial.

[opebo]

Can you imagine Talent winning Ohio due to GOTV,

That would be one hell of a GOTV, considering Talent is running in Missouri!

[ucscgaldamez]

lol Sorry. Dewine=Talent...same thing.

[Nym90]

Hmm, it seems we've found the Democratic equivalent of mypalfish.

We'll see. I'm cautiously optimistic about this election. I've learned not to get my hopes up too highly, however, simply due to recent disappointments in this area.

[ucscgaldamez]

^I don't understand the comparison because I don't know who mypalfish is. I'm not sure I wanna know either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the Republican GOTV is overrated. A lot of people point to Ohio 2004, but let's look at the last couple polls:

2004-10-31   Survey USA B +2   
2004-10-31   University of Cincinnati B +1   
2004-10-31   Gallup K +4
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon B +2
2004-10-28   Mason-Dixon B +3
2004-10-27   Strategic Vision B +1

Also note something was seriously screwy with that last Gallup poll. So that's every other poll showing Bush up and close or at +2 (which he got), plus that's what Mason-Dixon said. DeWine is down double digits (or at least close to it), so such an effort is not going to save him. Also here in Minnesota we destroyed the GOP in GOTV, so we can definitely do it too. The GOP did have a good year in 2002, but we did just as well in 2000. Any advantage the GOP has here is probably only about enough to change 1-2 points, not double digits.

[Nym90]

^I don't understand the comparison because I don't know who mypalfish is. I'm not sure I wanna know either.

I shouldn't have rushed to judgement of you, and I apologize for that. My comment was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else. Welcome to the forum.

Basically he was a guy who came on right before the 2004 elections who said he was a Republican campaign operative but that the GOP was headed for a massive defeat due to what he saw as a failure of their GOTV operation. You can see the now infamous thread stickied at the top of the 2004 Presidential election section.

[Deano963]

A superior GOTV effort cannot overcome an 11-point deficit (the average lead of Brown over Dewine in the last five polls), or even an 8-point deficit (Tester over Burns).

Strategists from both parties do concede the Repubs have a better GOTV program, but say that it can make up 3 points in the polls at most on Election Day. That might pull the republican accross the line in TN and MO and VA, but not in OH, RI, MT, and PA. I see no reason to panick b/c of Repub GOTV efforts. Besides, the differences between 2006 and 2004 are huge. Dems will pick up at least 4 Senate seats and at least 20 House seats - of that I am sure. Personally I think they will pick up even more House seats and probably 1 more Senate seat at least, but I'm being very conservative in my official estimates just to be safe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least in Minnesota we have a better GOTV program. The GOP was utterly humiliated by it in 2004. Hopefully national Dems were given some tips.

Not that we need it for the Senate seat, but it could make the difference in the governor's race, and maybe pull Wetterling and Walz across the finish line.

[ucscgaldamez]

I really hope Wetterling wins this race! Well, at least you get to vote for Walz MN-1. I wish I could live in a competitive congressional district---my vote would be much more important in determining the outcome. Here where I live, the Democrat gets at least 65% of the vote. Howard Berman got 71% of the vote in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gutknecht has started out sending negative mailings against Walz. He's showing concern, a good sign. I did a massive lit drop for Walz last night. I think I'll do the apartments next block next week, I'll probably pick up more flyers this weekend when I do more phonebanking for the DFL.

[Democratic Hawk]

This day is suppose to be their day of celebration after the election. But I have some doubts that they will be able to compete against Republicans GOTV efforts

I think that the intensity among Democrats will, in 2006, be more than enough to offset the power of the GOP machine

If you were to divide the electorate into Base GOP, Soft GOP, Independent, Soft Dem and Base Dem, as POS/GQRR did in their recent survey of the 48 most competitive House districts survey for National Public Radio, what distinguishes the Soft GOP from all other groups is that their intensity level is the only one in negatives, which, in effect, means that they are the least likely to vote. Democrats can hope that the GOP machine's efforts fall on deaf ears beyond the base

Dave

[afleitch]

I think the GOTV effort for the Republicans will see smaller margins of victory than the polls suggest, but I don't believe it will deprive the Democrats the ability to gain a majority in the House. I am also optimistic about the Senate.