Bold take: Evers might be more likely to win than either Whitmer or Shapiro

[THG]

Craig is a superior candidate to Barletta or Kleefisch, but Evers is not popular in Wisconsin and is certainly not liked by Republicans. His state is also less blue than Michigan or Pennsylvania. He loses by a greater margin than Shapiro would, if not Whitmer.

[THG]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

[THG]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

Republicans have significantly more room to grow in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, even if all three stares will be purple for the foreseeable future.