Bold take: Evers might be more likely to win than either Whitmer or Shapiro

[Chips]

I say this because...

I think NJ's gubernatorial results will point to real trouble for the Democrats in the Philly suburbs.

Whitmer has an extremely energized Trump base against her.

I don't think Evers necessarily has those same problems to the same extent. Of course, Evers only won by one point in a blue wave year so he may well lose due to national environment alone but I honestly think Whitmer and Shapiro have bigger disadvantages working against them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304ap anyways and Biden can get to 50/45 not 62/38 where he was in March when all our wave insurance candidates announced, Biden won't be at 41

Some users forget we won 50)45 very close to what Trump tracked before the Insurrectionists and what Biden performance in 2020

Of course after insurrection, Trump became a 40 percent Prez, he has Russia and Stormy Daniels not just insurrection

[Thunder98]

I say this because...

I think NJ's gubernatorial results will point to real trouble for the Democrats in the Philly suburbs.

Whitmer has an extremely energized Trump base against her.

I don't think Evers necessarily has those same problems to the same extent. Of course, Evers only won by one point in a blue wave year so he may well lose due to national environment alone but I honestly think Whitmer and Shapiro have bigger disadvantages working against them.

Tony Evers is less popular than Whitmer with a 45% approval rating and is in the bottom 4 governors in the nation tying with Governor I*e of Hawaii. The Trump base in WI is just as energized as in Michigan with Whitmer.

[Schiff for Senate]

What makes you think WI Republicans/Trumpists are any less hyperconservative/hyperpartisan/insane than their MI counterparts?

[Chips]

What makes you think WI Republicans/Trumpists are any less hyperconservative/hyperpartisan/insane than their MI counterparts?

Not sure. I just happened to see a lot of resentment for Whitmer in Michigan. I've never been sure about how energized Trumpers are against Evers, not sure they hate him enough to have tried to kidnap him.

[Roll Roons]

What makes you think WI Republicans/Trumpists are any less hyperconservative/hyperpartisan/insane than their MI counterparts?

Not sure. I just happened to see a lot of resentment for Whitmer in Michigan. I've never been sure about how energized Trumpers are against Evers, not sure they hate him enough to have tried to kidnap him.

Whitmer seems to cause passionate hatred from her opponents in a way that virtually no other governor does. I kind of wonder why that is - it seems like it goes beyond sexism.

[Sir Mohamed]

What makes you think WI Republicans/Trumpists are any less hyperconservative/hyperpartisan/insane than their MI counterparts?

Not sure. I just happened to see a lot of resentment for Whitmer in Michigan. I've never been sure about how energized Trumpers are against Evers, not sure they hate him enough to have tried to kidnap him.

Whitmer seems to cause passionate hatred from her opponents in a way that virtually no other governor does. I kind of wonder why that is - it seems like it goes beyond sexism.

Agreed. Sexism for sure plays some role, but I would agree there's more to it. Perhaps her strict handling of Covid is another factor.

[Mr.Phips]

I’d say Shapiro has the best chance out of all of them.  Dems only barely lost the court races (and won one) in PA in November.

[Not Me, Us]

I’d say Shapiro has the best chance out of all of them.  Dems only barely lost the court races (and won one) in PA in November.

Agreed. I actually also think him not being an incumbent could help him, since he doesn't have to answer for COVID restrictions.

[THG]

Craig is a superior candidate to Barletta or Kleefisch, but Evers is not popular in Wisconsin and is certainly not liked by Republicans. His state is also less blue than Michigan or Pennsylvania. He loses by a greater margin than Shapiro would, if not Whitmer.

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

[THG]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

[THG]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

Republicans have significantly more room to grow in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, even if all three stares will be purple for the foreseeable future.

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

Republicans have significantly more room to grow in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, even if all three stares will be purple for the foreseeable future.

They also have more room to fall in the suburbs, even if the WOW counties remain Republican for several more cycles (the only one that could come close to flipping any time soon is Ozaukee, but still.) Also, population loss in Detroit could be very costly to Democrats. Wisconsin could continue voting a point or two to the right of both states, but I don't see it voting substantially differently, except perhaps in very specific circumstances (if the Republican incumbents have different approval ratings in 2026, for example.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna win the 303 map BBB and BINF are passing and Biden will be at 50 percent next yr

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Say what you will about Whitmer's COVID-19 measures, but at least they weren't racist. Evers' were, and he marketed them as such. He's a terrible messenger and will probably lose by more than Whitmer.

[Roll Roons]

Say what you will about Whitmer's COVID-19 measures, but at least they weren't racist. Evers' were, and he's a crappy messenger to boot.

How were they racist?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Say what you will about Whitmer's COVID-19 measures, but at least they weren't racist. Evers' were, and he marketed them as such. He's a terrible messenger and will probably lose by more than Whitmer.

How were they racist?

Free testing only for minorities.

Ethnic minorities were disproportionately affected by the virus, so it wouldn't have been surprising to see the response focused on their communities. However, ethnicity was hardly the only variable in determining vulnerability to the spread of/death by the coronavirus, and the measure excluded white people in majority-minority neighbourhoods. Tests should have been offered for people of any race in a badly affected area, and if they had to be prioritised for individuals, they should have been prioritised for older people and people with preexisting medical conditions.

Frankly, free testing should have been rolled out across the state (this happened later). I suspect testing was prioritised here because Evers wanted to virtue signal rather than because of capacity issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, you’re wrong. Evers is disliked/despised by just about anyone who’s not a Democrat/liberal/"center"-left voter, and he’s very unlikely to be reelected.

.Nate Silver has us holding the 304 blue wall in Sen and Gov.
Biden wont be 41 percent Approvals this time next yr he would be better off


Biden Approvals are anxiety over Covid lasting too lon, he isn't a criminalg, Trump had Russia that's why he lost seats, Trump lost the H he was being impeached over Ukraine

Rs are confused whom won 80M votes we did, and Biden Trump won 74 M and he won lesser than Hillary

[swf541]

My hot take then is that even in a gop good year/wave they could easily lose both races in PA

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine unironically believing that the GOP base doesn’t despise Evers. Astonishing how a forum can be so out of touch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Right now, if things played out it's a Neutral Environment, Biden won 50/35 not 60)40 and won a 304 map because his Approvals are increasing not declining, but once he gets to 50/, it's a blue wave because all the wave insurance seats we didn't win last time comes into play

Biden isn't disliked by Rs or Indies, it's anxiety over Covid lasting too long, Trump was a Criminal that used WikiLeaks to win with Russia 2016

Rs do very well in state level but let's not play games here in knowing whom the Majority party is D's we won 80M votes, not Rs

[ElectionsGuy]

Evers has a lot of similarities to Biden. To a lot of outside observers, he's seen as a boring old non-threatening white guy. But in reality, he's pushing the same policies and keeping right in sync with the national Democratic Party, just like Biden. And people (voters) know this, if a Dem were actually more moderate or less offensive to Republicans and R-leaning independents, it would be noticeable, since the Dems are so uniformly together these days. But even Morning Consult shows Evers less popular than Whitmer or Wolf. Maybe the difference between Evers and Whitmer/Wolf is that he has been handicapped more by the legislature and courts. But Whitmer/Wolf also have an R legislature. People know what Evers would do if he had those two institutions agreeing with him, and it wouldn't be too different from any other Democratic governor.

I think the idea that opposition to Whitmer is based on sexism (that people here apparently believe) is crap, and her kidnapping plot was literally aided by the FBI. But honestly if Evers is seen as having a better chance because he's not as threatening or provoking, then there might be some validity to that.

[Calthrina950]

Evers has a lot of similarities to Biden. To a lot of outside observers, he's seen as a boring old non-threatening white guy. But in reality, he's pushing the same policies and keeping right in sync with the national Democratic Party, just like Biden. And people (voters) know this, if a Dem were actually more moderate or less offensive to Republicans and R-leaning independents, it would be noticeable, since the Dems are so uniformly together these days. But even Morning Consult shows Evers less popular than Whitmer or Wolf. Maybe the difference between Evers and Whitmer/Wolf is that he has been handicapped more by the legislature and courts. But Whitmer/Wolf also have an R legislature. People know what Evers would do if he had those two institutions agreeing with him, and it wouldn't be too different from any other Democratic governor.

I think the idea that opposition to Whitmer is based on sexism (that people here apparently believe) is crap, and her kidnapping plot was literally aided by the FBI. But honestly if Evers is seen as having a better chance because he's not as threatening or provoking, then there might be some validity to that.

Sinema is an example of this, as polls have shown that she enjoys higher approval ratings among Republicans than she does among Democrats, and certainly much higher than her colleague Kelly. Republicans view her as a more independent-minded Democrat who doesn't strictly adhere to the party line. They hold this same view of Manchin, with recent polls indicating his approval is as much as 30 points higher in West Virginia than Biden's.