Bold take: Evers might be more likely to win than either Whitmer or Shapiro

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

[Xing]

It's not impossible (more likely he outperforms Whitmer than Shapiro, I'd say), and Wisconsin is pretty much interchangeable with MI/PA in terms of partisan lean, but I'd guess all of them lose, albeit by less than 5.

Wisconsin is redder than Michigan or Pennsylvania post 2018, so you’d be wrong on that front.

I also have a strong feeling that Shapiro’s race will be the closest one, even if he loses. Evers could very well lose by 5 based on some very early preliminary data from non-partisan polling companies I’ve seen, though that is still very early data.

Keep in mind that Walker was the incumbent, as was Wolf, so I'm not sure that's the best comparison. Baldwin did overperform Stabenow by several points, not to mention WI-GOV was the closest in 2010, so I'd say that the data is a bit more mixed, but in the last couple of presidential elections, they've voted pretty close to each other.

Republicans have significantly more room to grow in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, even if all three stares will be purple for the foreseeable future.

They also have more room to fall in the suburbs, even if the WOW counties remain Republican for several more cycles (the only one that could come close to flipping any time soon is Ozaukee, but still.) Also, population loss in Detroit could be very costly to Democrats. Wisconsin could continue voting a point or two to the right of both states, but I don't see it voting substantially differently, except perhaps in very specific circumstances (if the Republican incumbents have different approval ratings in 2026, for example.)