Will Republicans have a filibuster-proof Senate majority in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Republicans have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate after 2024?

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, but they'll get rid of the filibuster when they regain control, which will make all of Manchin/Sinema's fearmongering about it look laughable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What is with this Pollster it's a 304 blue Wall map D's are tied or leading in all the 305 blue wall state
No they won't, they won't beat Bob Casey Jr and Cornyn said they're not running anyone against Sinema 24My

OZ isn't beating Fetterman

[Mr.Phips]

Guessing no.  I feel that Republicans gain 2/3 seats in 2022 for 47/48 seats.  In 2024 Biden wins again and Dems only lose OH and WV for 45/46 seats.  It’s hard to imagine Republicans gaining more than MT, OH, and WV with Biden winning.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably

They do not even need to quite win the cumulative national popular vote to do so.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I think the expected outcome if a Republican wins the presidency is something like 58, but if it isn't a super close win, the sky is the limit.  If everything right of Minnesota flipped in 2024, that would be R+10 and would automatically get them there unless they somehow lost seats in 2022.

2022 is probably R+3 as of today (they pick up 3 of AZ/NV/NH/GA).  If that happened, they would only need Trump 2016 states to get to 60 in 2024.  There's also NV, which was Clinton-Biden, but. could plausibly be an easier flip than AZ. 

[Vosem]

Not necessarily, but it should be noted that it's slightly easier than taking the Presidency. If the Presidency in 2024 is 50/50, then it's probably a bit likelier than not.

[Ferguson97]

No, but they'll be somewhere in the 54-57 range of seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but they'll be somewhere in the 54-57 range of seats.

Stop the naysay it's going to follow the blue way Casey, Kaine Sinema, Stabenow aren't losing in 2024 and DS can pickup WI and Pa have RS ever won 50 seats no

You are becoming more like Snowkabrador with your R fav predictions

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, but they'll be somewhere in the 54-57 range of seats.

Stop the naysay it's going to follow the blue way Casey, Kaine Sinema, Stabenow aren't losing in 2024 and DS can pickup WI and Pa have RS ever won 50 seats no

You are becoming more like Snowkabrador with your R fav predictions

Democrats could keep all of those seats (Sinema would lose primary) and there could still be 57 R if they lose NH, GA, AZ, and NV in 2022 and MT, WV, and OH in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but they'll be somewhere in the 54-57 range of seats.

Stop the naysay it's going to follow the blue way Casey, Kaine Sinema, Stabenow aren't losing in 2024 and DS can pickup WI and Pa have RS ever won 50 seats no

You are becoming more like Snowkabrador with your R fav predictions

Democrats could keep all 3 of those seats (Sinema would lose primary) and there could still be 57 R if they lose NH, GA, AZ, and NV in 2022 and MT, WV, and OH in 2024.

It's gonna be 52/48 D after 22 and OH, WV abd MT will be battlegrounds in 24 RS aren't gonna have 54 seats or 57

If Rs win the e blue wall in 22 or 24 Biden is finished not against Trump he would lose maybe to DeSantis

Re aren't get 54 or 57 seats by 24 if Trump runs no matter what Rassy says , due to fact other polls have Biden  tied right now with Trump

[David Hume]

Ranking from easy to hard:

1, WV 24

2, MT 24

3, OH 24

4, NV 22

5, AZ 22

6, GA 22

7, AZ 24 (with Sinema primaried)

8, NH 22

9, WI 24

10, MI 24

11, NV 24

12, PA 24

13, CO 22

14, ME 24

15, MN 24

16, VA 24

17, NJ 24

Without Sinema primaried, I would move 7 down to 11.

Basically, PA 24 is at least lean R with Casey running. CO 22 is very unlikely. So R can only afford to miss ONE of the 11 seats above.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No (and I think it will be harder than winning the presidency due to some formidable Democratic incumbents), but they can get there without touching a likely or safe D race:

Looking at only the races I think are “lean” or more competitive (or Democrat-held but likely R):

2022: WI (hold), PA (hold), AZ, NV, GA, NH
2024: WV, OH, MT, FL (hold), AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI

They could quite plausibly win up to 62 seats without successive red waves.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know you like Johnson but the map is gonna follow the 304 blue wall and oX isn't gonna beat Fetterman, that is laughable 😊😊😊

Bob Casey Jr isn't losing in 24 even MT Treasurer believes that, Casey Jr is untouchable when had RS won a landslide that have lost successive Prez Election PVI to Hillary and Biden

This pollsters believes that Rs are gonna win PA and cement the Prez Election in 24 two things wrong with that Cornyn says that they're not running a candidate against Sinema and AZ is a Tossuo

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah. They most likely won't have 60 seats, though I can imagine them finally nuking the filibuster the next time there's a GOP trifecta.

[Orser67]

Probably not, though it could certainly happen with good Republican years in 2022 and 2024.

On the other hand, they have a pretty strong chance of getting there with a solid win in 2022, a narrow Democratic presidential victory in 2024, and then decent-to-good Republican years in 2026 and/or 2028.

[Xing]

Lean No, since it’s not easy for them to get a net gain of six in 2024, even if they win every competitive race in 2022. Not impossible, but they’d need several things to go their way.

[progressive85]

No but all they need is 51 votes to blockade all judicial nominees and leave all those positions open for Cheeto to then fill again.  We keep going back and forth with the same people and it's ridiculous.  It's going to be the Cheeto and Mitch and Kevin Show for a few years most likely until Democrats can rebound in '26.

[Mr.Phips]

No but all they need is 51 votes to blockade all judicial nominees and leave all those positions open for Cheeto to then fill again.  We keep going back and forth with the same people and it's ridiculous.  It's going to be the Cheeto and Mitch and Kevin Show for a few years most likely until Democrats can rebound in '26.

It really is hard to see how Dems get any Supreme Court nominees confirmed until sometime in the 2030s unless Breyer retires next year.

[progressive85]

No but all they need is 51 votes to blockade all judicial nominees and leave all those positions open for Cheeto to then fill again.  We keep going back and forth with the same people and it's ridiculous.  It's going to be the Cheeto and Mitch and Kevin Show for a few years most likely until Democrats can rebound in '26.

It really is hard to see how Dems get any Supreme Court nominees confirmed until sometime in the 2030s unless Breyer retires next year.

What a horrible justice he is for this.  Seriously, he knows the stakes.  But sure don't retire and then croak in 2026, right before the Democrats can take back the Senate, and then be replaced with someone even further to the right than Antonin Scalia.  Then we'll have only 2 progressive justices on that court.... oh dear god, the right wing dystopia that will come to be!