Map Challenge: Wales with 'English sized' constituencies

[afleitch]

I've decided to try something to see if it's successful.

The first challenge is this: to redraw the constituency boundaries of Wales so that the seats have similar electorates to those in England and Scotland

I’ve been playing about with this and there are a few points of note.

1. Preserved Counties – Unlike Scotland Wales has a series of preserved ‘counties’ used to define constituencies. The boundaries are different to those in use before 96 (Clywd is larger for example) So try and stick with these set divisions.

2. Yns Mon- Like the Isle of Wight (which is theoretically too large) and the Western Isles (which is theoretically too small) would Anglesey have a case to remain as one constituency, though below the quote (I happen to think that would be the case)

3. Powys: A tough one, too small for 2 constituencies, too large for 1: as it is a preserved county, should it be given 1 or 2 seats, or combined with a neighbouring county?

I’ve started with Clywd. I think (though I may be wrong) it would be entitled to 5 seats, down 2. I have expanded Wrexham slightly west and south east (taking in the former detatched part of Flynt) .Alyn and Deeside is surprisingly large for a Welsh constituency at present, but was extended northward. Then it got tricky as I neared the coast. I decided it would be best to create a long thin coastal constituency taking in most of the coast of Conwy, and a second taking in a small part of Conwy, most of the existing Vale of Clywd constituency apart from the south and part the coast of Flintshire. This left a large final constituency taking in everything else; inland and rural Clywd.

There could be a case for having the whole of Denbighsire as one constituency, but that messed up neighbouring Conwy

It looked odd (as these changes can do if you look at Scotland!) but seemed the best solution.

(I’ll post the map later )

Looking ahead, I can see Ceredigion being extended southwest along the north Pembrokeshire coast, similar to its pre 97 boundaries but extending even further.

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What do you think? Anyone willing to give it a go and post maps for comparison?

I'm going to tackle the Welsh Valleys..that will probably be the most difficult and in reality changes could be quite controversial

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've decided to try something to see if it's successful.

The first challenge is this: to redraw the constituency boundaries of Wales so that the seats have similar electorates to those in England and Scotland

Er... good luck... and as Welsh geography really isn't very friendly to that idea, you'll need it

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Hey, it's your funeral

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There would be riots if anything else was the case. No, seriously.

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You'll have to combine it with somwhere else. Things would be easier if the gerrymander (er... boundary change...) in 1983 hadn't removed those Valleys wards from Brecon.
A case could be made for combining it with Carmarthenshire.

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A lot of rural "Clwyd" has very little to do with other parts of rural Clwyd. Will have to see a map though

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Historic Debighshire (except for Wrexham, obviously), maybe. Not the UA though.

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Here's a tip; look at a road atlas. A town that's a mile away east from another town and five miles north of another one, will have more links with the town five miles away than the one a mile away.

[afleitch]

Thank's Al

I am able to guess at the best course for valley seats from what I remember from my old geography lessons I'll also look at the 50's boundaries to see what communities were grouped together then. As for the 'Clywd Rural' seat it is similar in style to the horrid Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat (which only unifying factor, according to the comission was that a motorway runs through it...) It looks ugly, pleases no-one but is a necessity.

You may be right about trying to group Montgomery with parts of Cardigan and Brecon/Radnor with parts of Carmartheren.

Should this whole scenario actually happen (and it probably would if the Assembly is granted powers in comparison to Holyrood) I can see it taking a considerable time and suject to the courts

[afleitch]

Good news on the Gwent front! Monmouthshire and Torfaen local authorities get their own seat!

Looking around this Caerphilly joins up with a few wards from Newport East, effectively sweeping round Cardiff. Newport West has already lost wards to Monmouth so the remainder of these seats should be able to form a single Newport seat. The current Islwyn seat is almost large enough to remain as it is, but I'm adding in some wards from Blenau Gwent...the problem being it squezes BG so that it may have to expand west into Merthyr unless Islwyn is abolished with BG, Caerphilly and Merthyr all redrawn with drastically different boundaries..... :/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Certainly historic Monmouthshire should use English-sized constituencies.

[Harry Hayfield]

According to UK-Elect, the average English constituency has an electorate of 70,027, this compares to the average Welsh electorate of 55,762.

[Harry Hayfield]

So, taking my own example of Ceredigion. The electorate in 2005 was 53,493 (some 17,000 short of an English seat). But where to get that extra 17,000 from and make it look a reasonable size? Well, Ceredigion and Preseli perhaps (53,493 + some of Preseli's 55,502)?. Or what about Ceredigion and South Meirionnydd? Well, that's a non starter as it crosses a county boundary. Ceredigion, Carmarthen and Dinefwr (53,493 + 53,484) is another possible option, but if you ask me I think a much better option would be Ceredigion and Carmarthen East.

[afleitch]

So, taking my own example of Ceredigion. The electorate in 2005 was 53,493 (some 17,000 short of an English seat). But where to get that extra 17,000 from and make it look a reasonable size? Well, Ceredigion and Preseli perhaps (53,493 + some of Preseli's 55,502)?. Or what about Ceredigion and South Meirionnydd? Well, that's a non starter as it crosses a county boundary. Ceredigion, Carmarthen and Dinefwr (53,493 + 53,484) is another possible option, but if you ask me I think a much better option would be Ceredigion and Carmarthen East.

I should be finished Wales by the weekend

Just out of interest Harry, as a Lib Dem what would be be desirable for your party when it comes to Ceredigion? Expanding down the north Pembroke coast or taking in parts of Carmarthen?

Dyfed would be entitled to 4 seats. Llanelli is the largest and is extended slightly. I've taken Pembrokeshire as a county, and cut it back by extending Ceredigion along the coast as in the past and extending Carmarthen into south Pembrokeshire.

Strangely enough I found this the easiest preserved county to do so far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just out of interest Harry, as a Lib Dem what would be be desirable for your party when it comes to Ceredigion? Expanding down the north Pembroke coast or taking in parts of Carmarthen?

Neither area is good for the LibDems, but rural Carmarthenshire (only parties with a decent vote in that are these days are Plaid and Labour; a lot of Indies get elected in local elections o/c. Used to be a Tory vote in the '80's but it's gone; I think it largely died (literally) or headed Nat-ward) is worse than the coastal strip of north Pembrokeshire.

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Presumably back to it's pre-97 boundaries?

[afleitch]

Spot on with Llanelli The whole of Dyfed is a throwback to the 80's really.

Powys is giving me headaches- I experimented with combining it with Dyfed, but Ceredigion would have been decimated and that would have had a knock on effect in every other seat. But, (and you'll like this Al) the whole of Glamorgan was coming on well starting from the south up, larger seats, but still contained within valleys and running north to south but as you got closer to the border with Powys, and particular with seats such as Ebbw Vale and Merythr, you started getting seats straddling the border and crossing valleys, sometimes up to three at a time all because of the border with Powys (The borders between the preserved Glamorgan counties weren't actually a problem)

So I've decided to ignore the border; which should at least allow for some tidying up of the valley seats and could be enough to allow Powys to have 1 seat that covers all but its southern extremities.

If not I'll cry

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Powys is giving me headaches

You say that like it's a suprise

And it certainly should be possible to add the southernmost wards of Powys to various Valleys constituencies; Neath is an obvious one to add a lot to.

[Harry Hayfield]

To be honest, Dyfed is one of the worst counties to make constituencies out of!

You have Ceredigion (Liberal historic stronghold), Carmarthenshire (Labour / Plaid historic battleground) and Pembrokeshire (Little Conservative England in Wales).

The best we could hope for was something like the Ceredigion and Preseli option (and hope we could convince all those Con voters in Preseli that now they are in Ceredigion, it's us or Plaid and no one else)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The best we could hope for was something like the Ceredigion and Preseli option (and hope we could convince all those Con voters in Preseli that now they are in Ceredigion, it's us or Plaid and no one else)

In the '80's you lot did a good job of doing that IIRC.

[Harry Hayfield]

The best we could hope for was something like the Ceredigion and Preseli option (and hope we could convince all those Con voters in Preseli that now they are in Ceredigion, it's us or Plaid and no one else)

In the '80's you lot did a good job of doing that IIRC.

That's true, and it's part of the reason why we gained Ceredigion in 2005. We very nearly came a cropper though in 1979. According to the University of Sheffield in 1979, Ceredigion (1997 boundaries) would have elected a Conservative MP!

[afleitch]

A few 'tasters'

Monmouth
Torfaen
Newport
Caerphilly and Rogerstone
Islwyn
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Merthyr Tydfil and Cynon Valley
Rhondda and Aberdare

And here is Caerphilly and Rogerstone (or Marshfield or something but for the love of god not Newport West); a favourite of mine as it sweeps down to include the outskirts of Newport up to the ringroad.





The whole things is taking longer than planned

[Harry Hayfield]

A few 'tasters'

Monmouth
Torfaen
Newport
Caerphilly and Rogerstone
Islwyn
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Merthyr Tydfil and Cynon Valley
Rhondda and Aberdare

And here is Caerphilly and Rogerstone (or Marshfield or something but for the love of god not Newport West); a favourite of mine as it sweeps down to include the outskirts of Newport up to the ringroad.





The whole things is taking longer than planned

If I might object to the names (if not the design).

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Merthyr Tydfil and Cynon Valley
Rhondda and Aberdare

You are likely to find some South Walian Valley residents to be furious about the possible linkups there (especially with Blaenau Gwent). It's always been Merthyr and Rhymney.

[afleitch]

You are likely to find some South Walian Valley residents to be furious about the possible linkups there (especially with Blaenau Gwent). It's always been Merthyr and Rhymney.

This isn't going to be pretty; and most complains will fall on deaf ears. If such a change ever happens the Boundary Commission will be pretty ruthless as it was in Scotland. I live in an abomination (Rutherglen and Hamilton West) that clumped two communites in with a town, and half of another town that have nothing historically in common and they didn't budge on it

Many Valley seats are pushing it in terms of size as it; there would be alot of re-organisation and a lot of villages that have nothing to do with each other will find themselves sitting in the same seat.

(You can see I am still bitter about what happened in Scotland )