What's notable to me, though, is that both Kelly and Sinema are underwater among the general electorate, as is Biden. These numbers don't bode well for Democratic electoral chances in Arizona next year. And they also show that Sinema will be locked in for a competitive race in 2024, even if she manages to get past the Democratic primary, just like how Kelly will be in peril next year.
If Sinema retains even a small fraction of her current crossover support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (which she likely will even after moving left during the primary), her race is unlikely to be very competitive, especially if Republicans (as has been indicated) don’t even prioritize it. In spite of their similar overall favorability ratings, Kelly's numbers are far more problematic for his prospects in a GE than Sinema's given that they’re driven by mere partisanship and far worse ratings among Republicans/independents (and the obvious fact that he’s up for reelection in a year that is more likely to be a GOP wave than 2024). It’s not like this wasn’t foreseeable either — the notion that Kelly was a stronger GE candidate than Sinema was always rather wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who don’t realize how unpopular many items on Biden's agenda are with the electorate at large or deny the effectiveness of (purely rhetorical and symbolic) performative moderation even though the candidates engaging in it have a track record of winning over Republican-leaning voters even in tough seats/poor environments (Manchin, Cuellar, Golden, Sinema, etc.).
This is a legitimate point that you make. Kelly is more vulnerable than Sinema, and he has been much more of a party-line or "partisan" Senator than she has been. Ironically enough, that explains why his approvals among Democrats are much higher than hers. They view him as being more loyal to the Party. But conversely, that hurts his image with moderate and independent voters, many of whom may view Sinema as a "maverick" in the manner that McCain once was seen as.
