AZ-POP/OHPI: Sharp decline in Kelly's favorability numbers, Sinema more popular among GOP than Dems
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  AZ-POP/OHPI: Sharp decline in Kelly's favorability numbers, Sinema more popular among GOP than Dems
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Author Topic: AZ-POP/OHPI: Sharp decline in Kelly's favorability numbers, Sinema more popular among GOP than Dems  (Read 1263 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 23, 2021, 11:32:27 AM »

Kelly favorability:

41% favorable
48% unfavorable

Biden favorability:

43% favorable
54% unfavorable

Sinema favorability:

42% favorable
45% unfavorable

   - among Republicans: 48/45 (+3) (lmao, arguably even better than the Tester numbers)
   - among Democrats: 42/47 (-5)

2024 D primary:

72% "a Democrat other than Sinema"
26% Sinema

47% Gallego
24% Sinema

https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/democrats-support-ousting-sinema-in-2024-primary

Who could have possibly seen this coming? Time for Kelly to put on the NASA suit and pray Ducey doesn’t change his mind about a Senate candidacy so that the "AZ GQP" can save the day for him. /s
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Chips
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2021, 11:37:21 AM »

Those Kelly approval numbers don't look great for next year ngl.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2021, 11:44:13 AM »

What's notable to me, though, is that both Kelly and Sinema are underwater among the general electorate, as is Biden. These numbers don't bode well for Democratic electoral chances in Arizona next year. And they also show that Sinema will be locked in for a competitive race in 2024, even if she manages to get past the Democratic primary, just like how Kelly will be in peril next year.
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Woody
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2021, 11:47:40 AM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2021, 11:52:10 AM »

Gallego already said he's not running against Sinema when Biden Approvals go up so will Kelly Brnovich is being supoenas by Commission but I know that Sununu isn't running this Brnovich is supposed to beat Kelly
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2021, 11:58:03 AM »

Gallego wants to be Gov one day Kelly and Sinema aren't losing but Katie H might and he is next in line in 2026
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2021, 12:22:40 PM »

It's just really not looking good for Democrats right now.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2021, 12:27:04 PM »

What's notable to me, though, is that both Kelly and Sinema are underwater among the general electorate, as is Biden. These numbers don't bode well for Democratic electoral chances in Arizona next year. And they also show that Sinema will be locked in for a competitive race in 2024, even if she manages to get past the Democratic primary, just like how Kelly will be in peril next year.

If Sinema retains even a small fraction of her current crossover support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (which she likely will even after moving left during the primary), her race is unlikely to be very competitive, especially if Republicans (as has been indicated) don’t even prioritize it. In spite of their similar overall favorability ratings, Kelly's numbers are far more problematic for his prospects in a GE than Sinema's given that they’re driven by mere partisanship and far worse ratings among Republicans/independents (and the obvious fact that he’s up for reelection in a year that is more likely to be a GOP wave than 2024). It’s not like this wasn’t foreseeable either — the notion that Kelly was a stronger GE candidate than Sinema was always rather wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who don’t realize how unpopular many items on Biden's agenda are with the electorate at large or deny the effectiveness of (purely rhetorical and symbolic) performative moderation even though the candidates engaging in it have a track record of winning over Republican-leaning voters even in tough seats/poor environments (Manchin, Cuellar, Golden, Sinema, etc.).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2021, 12:27:32 PM »

It's just really not looking good for Democrats right now.



Biden has a yr to get his Approvals to 50/45 it's a 303 map regardless, our candidates are tied or leading in every blue wall state, knowing you you expect Biden Approvals to stay the same

D's are tied or leading on GCB whichever pollster you look st
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2021, 12:28:11 PM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.

What I don't understand is Tester does as well but he gets >20% of R's to approve of him (according to one poll, that may be flawed)? Pretty much everybody except Golden, Sinema and Manchin are in lockstep. Just shows you voting records aren't that big of a deal.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2021, 12:31:04 PM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.

And yet Republicans never face consequences for representing swing states like Oklahoma.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2021, 01:42:15 PM »

In general, which politician gets away with being a fake moderate and which does not depends on (a) whether voters genuinely feel listened to by them and identify with them (selective and regular local [media] appearances are particularly important here, especially in small states like MT/ME/WV, as are identity-based appeals), (b) whether their opponent can generate emotions which stand in stark contrast to the carefully cultivated image of the incumbent (this can be done by highlighting voting record but it isn’t easy and needs to be relentlessly focused on emotion rather than abstract votes/details no one understands - see ND-SEN 2018 as a prime example, but even then Cramer substantially underperformed Trump in spite of Heitkamp's missteps and overconfidence/reliance on her "nice aunt/grandma" image, which shows you how difficult running against these kinds of candidates is)**, (c) whether the incumbent is perceived as "authentic" or not (if they are, voters are more than willing to tolerate/overlook their supposed "extremism," see: Baldwin, Johnson, Tester, Brown)***. All of these things are more about branding/marketing and basic psychology than actual voting records, which (as unfortunate as it is) basically never decide elections. Usually you’ll find that the success of any "fake moderate" can be explained by a combination of those three factors (and their opponents' inability to undermine or dismantle them). In the case of Sinema, enough Republican-leaning voters feel listened to/represented by her even though she’s going side against them whenever leadership tells her to.

**Negative emotions (especially fear) are always better motivators than positive emotions or campaigns which ask voters to "reward" the incumbent. Ideally, the voter needs to become afraid of the prospect of candidate xyz in the House/Senate — the more a candidate's personality can work against or forestall this, the better (see: Young Kim, Susan Collins, Heidi Heitkamp — it’s hard to make people afraid of these "likable women" even though most of their votes are just as "radical" as those of "partisan firebrands"). In general, it isn’t far-fetched to think of any campaign as a war over emotions.

***Hence also why I don’t think "Ron Johnson is an extremist/insurrectionist" is a particularly apt strategy for Democrats in this race given that it does nothing to combat the "I don’t like everything he does, but I like the guy because he sincerely speaks his mind" appeal his campaigns are so reliant on (and in fact risks reinforcing it at every turn). You could argue that it aims at generating emotions of fear but the problem here is that you’re dealing with an incumbent uniquely adept at generating those emotions himself (and those are likely to win out in a midterm election under a D trifecta), which is why I would go with the "you can’t trust the messenger" / "if you can’t trust the messenger, how can you trust their message?" angle rather than "the messenge is too radical" approach.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2021, 02:14:47 PM »

This poll is totally meaningless since the Election is a yr from now
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progressive85
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2021, 04:34:00 PM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.

And yet Republicans never face consequences for representing swing states like Oklahoma.

I think it's the image... Oklahoma brings to mind yip-yippity cowboys with bales of hay and good ol' Christian family values, while Massachusetts brings to mind .... actually, I have no idea what it brings to mind, but MA gets a bad rap.  I've been here a while and the people are really not any worse than in any other state, or any better - Massachusetts isn't really that LIBRUL (ooo scary) it's just kinda bland.  There are extremes in MA - very poor, many of them immigrants, clinging onto each other for support, and then the affluent suburbs and their Gilded lives.  Elizabeth Warren votes for the poor immigrants, not the Gilded lives, so I don't know why that makes her unacceptable in any other state.... it's more about framing and image than anything else.  Liz Warren is a champion of consumer rights, how does that not fly in Peoria too?  U know what i mean, jelly bean?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2021, 05:19:27 PM »

What's notable to me, though, is that both Kelly and Sinema are underwater among the general electorate, as is Biden. These numbers don't bode well for Democratic electoral chances in Arizona next year. And they also show that Sinema will be locked in for a competitive race in 2024, even if she manages to get past the Democratic primary, just like how Kelly will be in peril next year.

If Sinema retains even a small fraction of her current crossover support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (which she likely will even after moving left during the primary), her race is unlikely to be very competitive, especially if Republicans (as has been indicated) don’t even prioritize it. In spite of their similar overall favorability ratings, Kelly's numbers are far more problematic for his prospects in a GE than Sinema's given that they’re driven by mere partisanship and far worse ratings among Republicans/independents (and the obvious fact that he’s up for reelection in a year that is more likely to be a GOP wave than 2024). It’s not like this wasn’t foreseeable either — the notion that Kelly was a stronger GE candidate than Sinema was always rather wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who don’t realize how unpopular many items on Biden's agenda are with the electorate at large or deny the effectiveness of (purely rhetorical and symbolic) performative moderation even though the candidates engaging in it have a track record of winning over Republican-leaning voters even in tough seats/poor environments (Manchin, Cuellar, Golden, Sinema, etc.).

This is a legitimate point that you make. Kelly is more vulnerable than Sinema, and he has been much more of a party-line or "partisan" Senator than she has been. Ironically enough, that explains why his approvals among Democrats are much higher than hers. They view him as being more loyal to the Party. But conversely, that hurts his image with moderate and independent voters, many of whom may view Sinema as a "maverick" in the manner that McCain once was seen as.
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2021, 06:22:59 PM »

I think Sinema should switch parties. She would be unopposed in the Republican primary and would sail to re-election.

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Hollywood
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2021, 09:26:35 PM »

Sinema and Manchin looked at the polling information in their states, and came to the correct conclusion about how they would react to Biden Administration policy.  Sinema wasn't running in 2022 like Kelly, but understand that internal polls from Ds and Rs showed Arizona was moving towards the Republican party in the Spring of 2021.  Now she has time to win back Democrats before 2024, and, if not, she could run as a R or I with a gigantic war chest. 

The irony for Democrats that hate her is that she could have saved the party from the situation they now find themselves in. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2021, 09:14:14 AM »

I think Sinema should switch parties. She would be unopposed in the Republican primary and would sail to re-election.



She’d get killed in either party’s primary and is far more vulnerable than Kelly.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2021, 08:27:15 PM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.

And yet Republicans never face consequences for representing swing states like Oklahoma.

In Republican midterms they do. There's a reason they were only able to win deep red states and districts in 2018 (aside from Florida), and they even lost quite a few of those.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2021, 06:40:04 AM »

Democrats will lose senate race in 2022, lose senate race in 2024 and lose the electoral vote in Arizona. I think it makes more sense to defend Nevada, which we might lose as well.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2021, 07:27:57 PM »

Kelly needs to get out there more. Maybe an Arizonan can enlighten me, but I have no idea where he stands on anything. Sinema sure has a lot to say.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #21 on: December 16, 2021, 02:17:40 PM »

Again, can we get someone other than OHPI out there?

Their approval numbers have been weird re: everyone else’s (Way higher on Sinema, way lower on Kelly than everyone else that polls there, but they are the only ones doing it with any regularity)
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UWS
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« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2021, 09:45:00 AM »

Well, that's what happens when you vote like you're representing Massachusetts.

The moreover that Kelly changed his position on border security. In fact, in a recent interview Mark Kelly admitted that Yuma needs a border wall – despite the fact that he voted against a border wall three times this year. That's another example of Kelly saying something in Arizona while doing the opposite in D.C.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=117&session=1&vote=00033

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=117&session=1&vote=00199

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=117&session=1&vote=00298#position

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVfz6jPNB3c
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