Was 2004 the Peak of the "Southern Strategy" GOP coalition

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say so given that it is probably the only time in history that Republicans in a competitive election was able to win every southern state by comfortable margins(Bush won FL by more than 5) and basically thanks to that along with support in the Interior West(other than NV/NM) , Bush was able to use the southern led coalition basically to start out with a base of 249 EV.

[DPKdebator]

2004 was the first and so far only GOP victory where the Republican didn't carry a single northeastern state. Bush swept the entire former Confederacy in a close election, which hasn't happened since. As a result, W's coalition is certainly the GOP's most Southern Strategy-centric.

[Woody]

Nah. Today, in comparison to 2004, the GOP now dominates state legislatures and control almost all Senate and House delegations (Democrats from rural districts like John Barrow and Rick Boucher are non-existent today). Ditto with governor's mansions. The only strength Democrats have is in the Old South, and even then they are at a disadvantage.

The Deep and Upper South have also swung by monster margins since then compared to Bush's winning margins even though he won them comfortably.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

[Frodo]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nah. Today, in comparison to 2004, the GOP now dominates state legislatures and control almost all Senate and House delegations (Democrats from rural districts like John Barrow and Rick Boucher are non-existent today). Ditto with governor's mansions. The only strength Democrats have is in the Old South, and even then they are at a disadvantage.

The Deep and Upper South have also swung by monster margins since then compared to Bush's winning margins even though he won them comfortably.

Downballot id say the Peak was 2016 but Presidentially this isnt true. First of all Virginia used to be a solid red state in 2004 now it’s a solid blue state but even other than Virginia your statement isn’t true . Bush won every state of the former confederacy by more than 5 points and all but two by double digits while Trump lost two southern states ,  won only 7 of 11 by more then 5 points and 6 of 11 by double digits(barely over half).


Even if you do a direct comparison:

Bush 2004 did better than Trump did either time  in VA, NC, SC, GA ,MS and TX and better than Trump did in 2020 in AL as well . So Bush did better than Trump did either time in 6 of the 11 southern states

[OSR stands with Israel]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

I’d say the mid 2010s

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

I’d say that’s about accurate.

[Frodo]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

I’d say the mid 2010s

I am including Virginia. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

I’d say the mid 2010s

I am including Virginia. 

Republicans have never had though all 11 gubernatorial seats from the former confederacy at the same time as keep in mind that Arkansas was in Democratic hands from 2010-2014 as well . Republicans had such a massive majority in the VA HOD though so I’d say 2014 or 2016 is the peak

[Frodo]

At the presidential level yes, at the state level no. Even there it gets convoluted though because no Republican has ever won the south by a more insanely North Korea like margin then Nixon in 72 and what’s crazier is that southern congressional Democrats were winning by an equal margin.

If you had to point to a certain period of time when Republicans reached their peak in state legislatures and governor's mansions throughout the former Confederacy, which would it be?  The early 2010s, perhaps? 

I’d say the mid 2010s

I am including Virginia. 

Republicans have never had though all 11 gubernatorial seats from the former confederacy at the same time as keep in mind that Arkansas was in Democratic hands from 2010-2014 as well . Republicans had such a massive majority in the VA HOD though so I’d say 2014 or 2016 is the peak

Sounds fair, and bear in mind Republicans also took back control of the Virginia Senate after 2011.  One wonders how big their majority in that chamber would have been had they maintained control of it after 2007, and been able to gerrymander it the way they did the House of Delegates.