Lean D, still. As others have stated much of the Democratic gains here have been motivated by hard factors - specifically generational displacement by younger minorities and transplants to the Atlanta metro - as opposed to more persuadable voters switching over (I think displacement/demographic change is a bit of an overrated factor nationwide, but this is one state where it really has uniformly benefitted the Democrats and hurt the GOP). Furthermore, the 2021 runoffs already gave a test case in how two federal candidates with somewhat different branding performed, and the more staid candidate only just barely outperformed the candidate branded as a more generic Trumpist Republican. The areas where there was significant ticket-splitting (the Northern suburbs of Fulton/Cobb/DeKalb) are a small section of the state that is not even wholly favorable to the GOP - and would not be able to withstand further erosion in places like Gwinnett and Henry.
GA probably votes close to whatever the national popular vote will be.
This is probably true in most scenarios, but I think GA would only just barely budge right (and vote left of the NPV by a few points) in a scenario where the GOP has a firm NPV win and has clearly flipped AZ/MI/PA/WI/maybe NV.
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