Rate Georgia Gov. in a Perdue (R) vs Abrams (D) race

[Woody]

With Trump, Gingrich, and other Republicans pressing him to run, combined with reports of him preparing to get in the ring, and seeing as he is publicly dissing Kemp and embracing more of President Trump's views on the 2020 election.. it looks like he would be set to successfully primary Kemp.

The question is how he would fare against Abrams? I think he would model his run after Youngkin's campaign.

[President Johnson]

Tilt or Lean Republican.

Abrams has proven to be a strong candidate whose organization ran turn out voters, but the national environment will most likely more than offset this and Georgia's trends. I think she'd fare best against Kemp, who would struggle with the Trump base for simply certifying Biden's win in the state.

[S019]

Tilt/Lean D as it would be with most Generic D v Generic R candidates, GA has been swinging (not just trending left) for several cycles now, and I don't really see that stopping, ofc if any year was to have a slight reversion, it'd be one like next year, but the Democratic vote base is very solid here and the small amount of persuadable voters in Georgia surely makes it possible for Democrats to successfully fight hostile headwinds here. I would not be surprised at all if Republicans picked up several governorships in the Midwest and still lost Georgia. If Democrats lose here, they're likely having a very awful night.

[MT Treasurer]

Pure Toss-up (and Tilt D with Kemp). I actually think there’s an underrated chance of this race ending up slightly to the left of GA-SEN.

That said, I also agree with this sentiment:

I would not be surprised at all if Republicans picked up several governorships in the Midwest and still lost Georgia. If Democrats lose here, they're likely having a very awful night.

[patzer]

Lean D regardless of the Republican candidate. Demographics are not on their side.

[Xing]

Pretty much a pure Toss-Up. I’d expect it to track the Senate race closely, regardless of the Republican candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Titanium R unless Abrams runs, Warnock wins regardless if Kemp wina

[Chips]

Lean R

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue would do better than Kemp in the vast majority of scenarios - by how much I cannot say for sure (the ceiling would be somewhere around 1 point), but every vote can matter in a state like GA.

At a granular/individual level (something hard to observe by just looking at county results, or even precinct-level data at times - especially given huge demographic shifts in many areas of significance that skew results), there were tens of thousands of Perdue '14 voters who voted for Abrams in 2018 & Perdue in '21. Both candidates have demonstrated at least some crossover appeal, and both candidates' better-than-Generic D performances is a result of that. Who these voters decide to back in a 2022 contest is difficult to guess.

(I know people like to joke about Perdue's Suburbron Coattails and all, but individual voter file analysis backs this up more than people realize. Perdue did roughly 1 point better than Loeffler statewide in the runoffs, and Abrams did 1-1.5 points better than fundamentals of 2018 would have suggested. However and in the case of both 2018 & 2021, their respective overperformances were 2-3x as powerful among the same higher-income, predominantly white suburban/exurban ATL communities; there are more Perdue '14-Abrams '18-Perdue '21 voters out there than people think)

[TDAS04]

Tilt D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

Nope, Abrams haven't announced its Titanium E Gov Race, Cook has it Lean R the Gov race towards Kemp

[TPIG]

Tilt or Lean Republican.

Abrams has proven to be a strong candidate whose organization ran turn out voters, but the national environment will most likely more than offset this and Georgia's trends. I think she'd fare best against Kemp, who would struggle with the Trump base for simply certifying Biden's win in the state.

Exactly this.

[Podgy the Bear]

Tilt R in a Perdue/Kemp (R) vs Abrams (D) scenario.  Though Perdue will run somewhat stronger in a general than Kemp.    Kemp has some animosity to deal with the Republican base--Perdue doesn't.

[Podgy the Bear]

(I know people like to joke about Perdue's Suburbron Coattails and all, but individual voter file analysis backs this up more than people realize. Perdue did roughly 1 point better than Loeffler statewide in the runoffs, and Abrams did 1-1.5 points better than fundamentals of 2018 would have suggested. However and in the case of both 2018 & 2021, their respective overperformances were 2-3x as powerful among the same higher-income, predominantly white suburban/exurban ATL communities; there are more Perdue '14-Abrams '18-Perdue '21 voters out there than people think)

Perdue would have done even better than Loeffler in the January runoff if Senate control would not have been an issue.  This got enough swing/tilt Democrats to go out and vote for Ossoff unenthusiastically (myself included).

Ossoff owes his Senate seat to the fact he was running with Raphael Warnock (plus the considerable Democratic trend in Georgia in 2020).  And he'll keep his seat until 2027, whereas Warnock is going to have a tough road next year.

[Utah Neolib]

Tilt D if Abrams, toss-up or tilt R if the democratic nominee is average.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Tilt D, Stacey Abrams is the candidate of the future and Perdue is in the past. In Georgia the future is here, it is surging to the left quickly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abrams has t announced anything yet

[Calthrina950]

Tossup. Georgia has a tendency to go against the national environment, as was seen in 2018 and to a lesser extent, in 2020. Regardless of who the Republican nominee is (either Perdue or Kemp), this will be a very close race, and I wouldn't count Abrams out.