Rate Thom Tillis vs. Roy Cooper 2026

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate a hypothetical 2026 Senate match-up between Thom Tillis and Roy Cooper.

[DaleCooper]

This will depend entirely upon which party holds the White House in 2026. If it's still Biden or another Democrat then I'd say it's Lean Tillis, but if it's a Republican (especially Trump again) then I could see this race being as much as Likely Cooper.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean if not Likely R. Given that suburban voters are reverting back to the GOP, and rural areas keep stampeding rightward, I think Tillis will put up a considerably more comfortable margin of victory than his wins in 2014 and 2020.

[lfromnj]

It depends how well Cooper's last 2 years go against GOP super majorities.

[Xing]

Tillis is not a particularly good candidate, and has only barely scraped by twice under very favorable conditions. If Biden is president, those conditions could be replicated. If not, his luck probably runs out. I'd say Tilt R if Biden is president, maybe Lean R if it's an especially bad year for Democrats, probably Lean D if a Republican wins in 2024.

[Mr. Smith]

Depends on how 2024 goes, and if NC flips or not.

[😥]

Lean D under Republican administration, Lean R under Democratic administration

[David Hume]

Tillis is not a particularly good candidate, and has only barely scraped by twice under very favorable conditions. If Biden is president, those conditions could be replicated. If not, his luck probably runs out. I'd say Tilt R if Biden is president, maybe Lean R if it's an especially bad year for Democrats, probably Lean D if a Republican wins in 2024.

Agree he is not a good candidate. But in what sense is 2020 a "very favorable condition"?

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R if a Democrat is President, Lean R if a Republican is President.

North Carolina is currently where Georgia was in 2008/2012...voting for Obama in 2008 aside. Democrats aren't winning statewide there without a really good night nationally.

[Alben Barkley]

Lean if not Likely R. Given that suburban voters are reverting back to the GOP, and rural areas keep stampeding rightward, I think Tillis will put up a considerably more comfortable margin of victory than his wins in 2014 and 2020.

This happened so far in one election in a different state under specific circumstances. And they still voted D overall, just by less than they had been lately. Assuming this is a nationwide trend that will still be in effect in 2026 (which could well be an R incumbent midterm) is insanity.

[Alben Barkley]

Tillis is not a particularly good candidate, and has only barely scraped by twice under very favorable conditions. If Biden is president, those conditions could be replicated. If not, his luck probably runs out. I'd say Tilt R if Biden is president, maybe Lean R if it's an especially bad year for Democrats, probably Lean D if a Republican wins in 2024.

Agree he is not a good candidate. But in what sense is 2020 a "very favorable condition"?

Cunningham was a weak candidate made weaker by his scandal, Trump won the state, and downballot Dems generally underperformed.

[Ferguson97]

Likely R if Biden wins re-election. Tossup if there's a Republican in the White House.

[MATTROSE94]

Tillis is not a particularly good candidate, and has only barely scraped by twice under very favorable conditions. If Biden is president, those conditions could be replicated. If not, his luck probably runs out. I'd say Tilt R if Biden is president, maybe Lean R if it's an especially bad year for Democrats, probably Lean D if a Republican wins in 2024.

Agree he is not a good candidate. But in what sense is 2020 a "very favorable condition"?

Cunningham was a weak candidate made weaker by his scandal, Trump won the state, and downballot Dems generally underperformed.

Cal Cunningham I think would have narrowly won without the scandal, maybe by around 10,000 votes or so. Thom Tillis is a weak incumbent who is lukewarm at best regarding his support for Donald Trump, so the Republican base might not turn out for him in future elections.

[Fetterman my beloved]

Lean R based on pure speculation

[JMT]

Well, it looks like Democrats have their first candidate:

https://twitter.com/russbowenwncn/status/1735318892040335806?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Lean D. Trump will be President.

[2016]

Lean D. Trump will be President.

Agree on Lean D if it's Cooper BUT Wiley Nickel vs Thom Tillis would start as a Toss Up no matter who is POTUS.

AND I still think Biden will be President. Relying on Polling One Year before the Election is garbarge. The new Bloomberg/Morning Consult have Trump at 46 % in virtually Swing State they polled except GA and NC. That's not a good place to be for Trump even if he doesn't get convicted. It means Trump has a ceiling of 46 % just like he had many times when he ran in 2016.

[Zedonathin2020]

It all depends on who's President

If its Biden, Lean or Likely R. If It's Trump, Tossup to Tilt D.

[Red Wall]

Safe R NC is the new Florida

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tillis is not a particularly good candidate, and has only barely scraped by twice under very favorable conditions. If Biden is president, those conditions could be replicated. If not, his luck probably runs out. I'd say Tilt R if Biden is president, maybe Lean R if it's an especially bad year for Democrats, probably Lean D if a Republican wins in 2024.

It's disingenuous to say he "barely won". In 2014 almost everyone had Hagan as the favorite to win amd hits victory was possibly the greatest non incumbent GOP upset of the decade. And then 2020 Cal Cunningham was destined to win per all the pundits and Tillis improved his margin outrunning Trump himself. People keep sleeping on Thom Tillis!

[Tekken_Guy]

amd hits victory was possibly the greatest non incumbent GOP upset of the decade

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think Tillis retires