Ferguson97
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,142
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2021, 07:05:32 PM » |
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If Trump beats Biden:
Kamala Harris would obviously run in the primary, but she wouldn't run unopposed since many would blame her for being part of the administration that gave Trump a nonconsecutive term.
Pete Buttigieg and AOC would also run for sure.
Other candidates I can see running are Gretchen Whitmer if she's re-elected in 2022, Gavin Newsom, and probably a few other people who don't come to mind at the moment.
In a primary with Harris, Buttigieg, AOC, Whitmer, and Newsom... the moderates would definitely flock to Buttigieg with a handful going to Whitmer. Harris would shore up establishment liberals and Black voters. AOC would get all of the progressives. Newsom wouldn't have much of a base here and I think he (and Whitmer) eventually drop out. Harris, Buttigieg, and AOC would have very different groups of supporters so it would eventually become a numbers game. I can't see AOC getting enough broad support, she's just too far left.
I think Harris probably winds up as the nominee in this scenario, but she would have the same problem as Hillary Clinton in that she'd be generally unpopular among those who aren't already very supportive of her. Buttigieg would likely agree to be her running mate.
Since Trump is now term-limited, there is the first open Republican primary since 2016. Trump would probably just hand-pick his successor (likely his VP) and they'd cruise to the nomination, but face significant opposition as many Republicans would be eager to run against Harris.
I'm leaning towards the idea of Trump picking Kirsti Noem as his VP, so I'll go with her as the nominee.
I think Noem would beat Harris in this scenario. She isn't personally obnoxious in the way that Trump is, and would have an easier time appealing to swing voters. I'd give Noem 65% or so chance of beating Harris.
If Trump beats Harris:
Biden announced he wouldn't run again in 2024, and Harris said that she would. Since this is a unique scenario and she is only sort-of an incumbent, Harris would face a few primary challengers. I imagine she would face opposition from the right and the left. Almost certainly AOC for the left, not exactly sure who it would be on the right. Maybe Andy Beshar? I doubt Pete challenges her here, and there would likely have been an agreement between the two where he supports her and becomes her running mate. But she loses to Trump and the Democrats are in chaos.
There might be a push for Biden to run again, but if he thought he was too old in 2024 he would have a hard time justifying a 2028 run.
AOC definitely runs another campaign, and without Harris in the way, we would probably see a clown car of Democrats running similar to 2020. Pete Buttigieg might make a run, but he'd be tainted as a failed running mate. Newsom and Whitmer run. Beshar might go again. Cory Booker. Kirsten Gillbrand. More and more that don't come to mind.
I can't even imagine who the base would coalesce around in this scenario, but everyone would be eager to take on Kirsti Noem. Democrats at this point might be too afraid to run another woman after losing Clinton and Harris, BUT with a Republican woman at the front of the ticket, they might either think it would end of balancing out or they might just not want a Republican to get the title of first female president. So who knows.
I think Democrats would probably be better off in this scenario since Harris would be a weaker candidate to run in 2028 (conditional on Biden losing in 2024).
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