Sweden election 2022

[parochial boy]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

In my city, Gothenburg, the four Alliance parties have been governing in a very weak minority coalition with only 24 out of 81 seats ever since the last election. This is due to it producing an unusually complicated result due to a new single issue party, the Democrats, getting 17% of the vote after running on a platform of stopping the West Link rail tunnel currently under construction. It looks like they will still be a factor on the council after this election, but reduced by about 10% since the main issue they ran on last time is pretty much dead with the tunnel is so close to completion. Polls have shown the Social Democrats gaining and within reach of a majority alongside V, MP and the Feminist Initiative (should the latter get past the threshold). But the question remains how easy it will be for them to work together since there's been quite a bit of friction between S and the other three after their previous coalition broke apart following the last election.

Speaking of which, what is Gothenburg normally like politically/demographically speaking? Stockholm and Malmö I think I've got a good handle on, but Gothenburg always seems to run closer to the national average and I'm not really sure why?

[parochial boy]

SAP still gaining votes in its eighth year in power. Pretty impressive.

Somewhat amateur psephology, but at a time of instability and uncertainty there is a tendancy for people to look for the relative comfort and security of the "natural party of government". And in Sweden that happens to be SAP.

[parochial boy]

Scania seems to have dumped a load recently, which is right wing turf - and the north seems a little behind, but it's not like there are many people up there for the left bloc to catch up. But beyond that I don't know, doesn't look so good right now.

[parochial boy]

Some very specific questions to our Swedes:

1. Why is SD so strong in Dalarna compared to surrounding regions?
2. What's the deal with Gotland? Left-wing overperformance, SD weak, etc.
3. What would be a good explanation for SD's relative weakness in Västerbotten (also compared to Norrbotten)?

I'm afraid that I don't really have any good answers to these questions.

I have also wondered why SD does so poorly on Gotland, considering how well they do in other rural areas. If you find out, please tell me.

I mean C historically has strong ties and a loyal base on Gotland - them aligning with S this time partially explains the block's overperformance.

Well yes, that part is very easy to explain. It's more the weakness of the Sweden Democrats that perplexes me.

Are there maybe just not a meaningful number of immigrants in Gotland? I can see why residents of an isolated island might feel immigration and perceived related crime on the mainland are less of an issue to them than even other rural areas with few immigrants in the same country, thus making SD uniquely less appealing.

That being said, there is a common phenomenon of anti-immigrant parties doing really well in rural backwaters that have zero immigrants. LePen doesnt get votes in Paris or Lyons where there are tons of immigrants. She does well in rural backwaters that no immigrant would ever want to move to in the first place since there are no jobs! To make a Canadian analogy i suspect the political attitudes on Gotland and likely more like Prince Edward Island (very small l liberal with a big Green party) and like like rightwing rural Ontario

I agree, but Gotland and PEI have a lot more in common geographically, too! (And at least PEI has a bridge to the mainlnd; maybe Newfoundland is more apt.) The point being that rural areas in the mainland fear immigrants will move there or otherwise fear the perceived decline of adjoining urban/suburban areas, but rural areas that are truly isolated, especially islands accessible only by ferry or plane, feel the perceived problems of the mainland ostensibly created by immigrants are much more removed from their day-to-day existence, including by the psychological barrier created by physical isolation. And it probably is true that immigrants are more likely to move to, say, Borlange than to Visby, even if both have low immigrant populations now.

I think social cohesion is probably higher on isolated islands, too. SD may lay claim to a lot of traditional values, but ultimately they are drawing votes from people who are disaffected by the decline of socially cohesive institutions, not people who still feel a strong communal connection.

Yeah, adding to this point, while Le Pen's best scores may be in rural areas with relatively few immigrants, it is worth pointing that her strongest regions are still the ones in the North and East that do have higher immigrant populations. Meaning that even in those rural areas there is still a closer perception of the existence of migrant communities. Le Pen's weakest regions over all remain that ones in the West of France (Brittany etc..) that have the least immigration overall. And as you say, and probably even more importantly, are the ones where the sorts of social networks and structures and sense of community still exist as a bulwark against the far right.

I have no idea to what degree this plays in Gotland, but it wouldn't surprise me if that in combination with Clarko's earlier points about tourism all contribute. Especially if you figure that the milder sunnier weather, various summer events all probably make it the sort of desirable place to live that often tends to play against the success of RWPPs.

[parochial boy]

The SD isn't that right wing compared to parties like the AfD, and the PM is more moderate still. This is an important moment to protect the LGBT+ community, women, Jews, and integrated immigrants.

what exactly would sd do to benefit any of those groups

They would protect LGBT+ people from the horde of scary Muslims secret homophobes who consider it a western perversion inside V, women from the horde of scary Muslims patriarchal apologists for forced marriages inside V, Jews from the horde of scary Muslims crazy Méluchistes/Corbynites inside V and integrated immigrants from the horde of scary Muslims gang criminals who refuse to integrate inside V. Of course.

I don’t hate Muslims. But Islamic immigrants to Sweden are a lot different to Muslims in the US. If you immigrate to the US, you most certainly don’t think of the US as a empire of infidels or whatever. You can go to Sweden and think that. This is also why rape statistics among Muslims in the US are the same if not lower than the non-Muslim populace, while the stats for Muslims in Sweden (and Norway too, for that matter) are much higher. Hell, Osama Bin Laden lives in Sweden for a while.

These non-integrationists also harm migrants who do want to adapt to Scandinavian society. They are also more conservative, with over 50% of Muslim migrants in the UK supporting Sharia Law. In countries like Sweden- where support for the LGBTQ+ community is standard across the political spectrum- these people can make up the majority of violent homophobes.

But I very much support refugees and immigrants who do want to integrate- half my mandatory service hours I need to graduate were spent preparing food and assistance for Afghan refugees, for instance.

This is pretty much the standard position of European far right parties, yes. Which you might want to take into consideration in the future.

And funnily enough, these parties are typically infested with antisemitism, misogyny and LGBT-phobia because, shock revelation, people who are bigoted tend to have bigoted views on any issues.

[parochial boy]

The SD isn't that right wing compared to parties like the AfD, and the PM is more moderate still. This is an important moment to protect the LGBT+ community, women, Jews, and integrated immigrants.

what exactly would sd do to benefit any of those groups

They would protect LGBT+ people from the horde of scary Muslims secret homophobes who consider it a western perversion inside V, women from the horde of scary Muslims patriarchal apologists for forced marriages inside V, Jews from the horde of scary Muslims crazy Méluchistes/Corbynites inside V and integrated immigrants from the horde of scary Muslims gang criminals who refuse to integrate inside V. Of course.

I don’t hate Muslims. But Islamic immigrants to Sweden are a lot different to Muslims in the US. If you immigrate to the US, you most certainly don’t think of the US as a empire of infidels or whatever. You can go to Sweden and think that. This is also why rape statistics among Muslims in the US are the same if not lower than the non-Muslim populace, while the stats for Muslims in Sweden (and Norway too, for that matter) are much higher. Hell, Osama Bin Laden lives in Sweden for a while.

These non-integrationists also harm migrants who do want to adapt to Scandinavian society. They are also more conservative, with over 50% of Muslim migrants in the UK supporting Sharia Law. In countries like Sweden- where support for the LGBTQ+ community is standard across the political spectrum- these people can make up the majority of violent homophobes.

But I very much support refugees and immigrants who do want to integrate- half my mandatory service hours I need to graduate were spent preparing food and assistance for Afghan refugees, for instance.

This is pretty much the standard position of European far right parties, yes. Which you might want to take into consideration in the future.

And funnily enough, these parties are typically infested with antisemitism, misogyny and LGBT-phobia because, shock revelation, people who are bigoted tend to have bigoted views on any issues.

The far right hates immigration because they hate Muslims because they are racist. I am merely concerned with the destruction of the tolerant, welcoming society that exists in Sweden and Scandinavia at large.

Shock revelation, when you come from a country where being gay is punishable by death and where 98%+ of the population have a negative opinion of Jews, you don’t leave said views when you arrive in Sweden.

On the contrary, integrated Muslims in Europe and virtually all Muslims in the US are some of the biggest contributors to society.

It's very disheartening to see that this line of thought pushed by War on Terror propagandists twenty years ago still persists when they never believed it to begin with.

What here is propaganda? It's routinely recorded in surveys in Arab countries that anti-Semitism reaches above 95% of the populace, and countries freely admit they kill gay people.

The people migrating to Sweden don't lose decades of hatred just because they cross the Mediterranean. This can be observed by the vast overrepresentation of migrants among rape statistics, for instance.

The frequency of which leftists such as yourself go to bat for people who are anti-Women, anti-Semitic, and anti-LGBTQ+ (#1 and #3 of which apply to you) never ceases to amaze me.

And considering your hatred of Muslims, should you also not be allowed into Sweden as a threat to their "history of tolerance"?

Claiming to somehow be a defender of tolerance and openness while simulataneously justifying the hatred, exclusion and scapegoating of one specific ethnic group is hypocritical. The idea behind human rights is that they are universal, not conditional on the good behaviour of your compatriots.