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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826860 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1825 on: April 08, 2004, 10:11:11 am »


That's Kevinstat's predicition.  It's not really his prediction.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1826 on: April 08, 2004, 10:16:12 am »

"Just trying to see if I could affect any of the median results with my one entry."
Cheesy
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1827 on: April 08, 2004, 10:17:36 am »

"Just trying to see if I could affect any of the median results with my one entry."
Cheesy


I doubt it worked, we have 1100+ entries now.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1828 on: April 08, 2004, 12:05:42 pm »

A West-East map, dividing the country electorally, would look something like this:



Red wins 276-262

And for a North-South:



Blue wins 270-268
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #1829 on: April 08, 2004, 04:41:33 pm »

Why isn't mississippi in the red states on the first map?  That would make it closer, and it is sticking out from the other blue states
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1830 on: April 08, 2004, 04:55:53 pm »

Why isn't mississippi in the red states on the first map?  That would make it closer, and it is sticking out from the other blue states

It wouldn't make it closer, that's the problem. Otherwise I would've agreed. I had to strike a balance os some sorts, and this is what I choose.
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #1831 on: April 08, 2004, 04:59:24 pm »

sorry. Iscrewed up and thought the blue were ahead
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1832 on: April 08, 2004, 05:01:14 pm »

sorry. Iscrewed up and thought the blue were ahead

It's no problem, it's easy to mix these things up...what about this one then?



Reds win 271-267
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #1833 on: April 08, 2004, 05:02:32 pm »
« Edited: April 08, 2004, 05:08:11 pm by blerpiez »

that's good, and the original map was good as well
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muon2
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« Reply #1834 on: April 08, 2004, 06:17:17 pm »

that's good, and the original map was good as well
On the north-south map, shouldn't Alaska go with the north?
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tweed
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« Reply #1835 on: April 08, 2004, 08:03:19 pm »

that's good, and the original map was good as well
On the north-south map, shouldn't Alaska go with the north?

Good point.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1836 on: April 08, 2004, 08:10:10 pm »

Boss Tweed, I still question why WV is Democratic on your map.  It seems if Bush can take Pennsylvania and hold onto New Hampshire and Ohio and then surge enough to take Michigan and the Midwest, he'd be high enough to hold onto West Virginia.
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tweed
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« Reply #1837 on: April 08, 2004, 08:16:01 pm »

Boss Tweed, I still question why WV is Democratic on your map.  It seems if Bush can take Pennsylvania and hold onto New Hampshire and Ohio and then surge enough to take Michigan and the Midwest, he'd be high enough to hold onto West Virginia.

Map is gone for now...gotta support the Devils.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1838 on: April 08, 2004, 09:49:43 pm »

Sigh, I better get this out of the way now, as a resident of the GTA is it my responsibility to say this at least once. The Devil Rays suck, they will lose. Go Leafs Go.

(I know it should be "Leaves" but try chanting that, it doesn't work)

Please god let this be the year... we've waited so long. I believe 1967 was the last time we won. Perhaps the fates are smiling on Toronto this year.

Siege40
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1839 on: April 09, 2004, 05:58:14 am »

that's good, and the original map was good as well
On the north-south map, shouldn't Alaska go with the north?

Good point.

Alaska and Hawaii can be tossed into whatever column works best, imo. Wink
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Fritz
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« Reply #1840 on: April 09, 2004, 04:18:37 pm »
« Edited: April 09, 2004, 04:53:27 pm by Fritz »

This is my latest confidence map, which I think definitively shows the current state of the election:



Solid Bush: 176 (21 states)
Lean Bush: 46 (5 states) (176 + 46 = 222)
Solid Kerry: 172 (12 states and D.C.)
Lean Kerry: 52 (5 states) (172 + 52 = 224)
Tossups: 92 (7 states)

I have consulted several polling sites to make this as accurate as possible.

The 10 states indicated as "lean" for either candidate, I consider highly unlikely to go the other way.  If both candidates can count on their lean states, that gives a best-case scenario for Bush of 314, for Kerry of 316.  Any prediction higher than that (supersoulty's, for example) is wishful thinking on somebody's part.  The seven tossup states on this map are where the election will be won or lost.
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opebo
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« Reply #1841 on: April 09, 2004, 05:00:39 pm »

Out of your seven 'tossup' states, I think all are leaning very narrowly to Bush, and I suspect he'll win them all.  On the other hand I would include Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota as tossups.
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Fritz
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« Reply #1842 on: April 09, 2004, 05:21:23 pm »

Out of your seven 'tossup' states, I think all are leaning very narrowly to Bush, and I suspect he'll win them all.  On the other hand I would include Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota as tossups.

I, of course, think all 7 tossups will go to Kerry, but hey, we're all entitled to a little wishful thinking!  Smiley  Within reason, of course.

Iowa, Minnesota and Oregon are defintely not tossups.  It's possible they'll switch back to Bush, but not very likely.
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opebo
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« Reply #1843 on: April 09, 2004, 05:26:57 pm »
« Edited: April 09, 2004, 10:22:00 pm by opebo »

Out of your seven 'tossup' states, I think all are leaning very narrowly to Bush, and I suspect he'll win them all.  On the other hand I would include Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota as tossups.

I, of course, think all 7 tossups will go to Kerry, but hey, we're all entitled to a little wishful thinking!  Smiley  Within reason, of course.

Iowa, Minnesota and Oregon are defintely not tossups.  It's possible they'll switch back to Bush, but not very likely.

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

Actually I think if Bush wins he's likely to get IA, MN and OR, and if Kerry wins he's likely to get most of your seven tossups.  In other words the winner will get most of all ten.
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Fritz
JLD
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« Reply #1844 on: April 09, 2004, 05:46:33 pm »

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

I think this site has the best compilation of polling data: http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Iowa:  Rasmussen has Kerry ahead by 10 points.
Minnesota:  Rasmussen only has Kerry leading by 3 points, but the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll has him up 12.  Trust me, I'm from Minnesota, Bush will not win here.
Oregon:  The only poll I see is from the Oregonian, which has Kerry up by 5 points.

This site essentially shows dead heats in my seven tossups.  This is not the only site I look at, I just mention it because it has the most complete information.

I also think historical data has some relevance.  Iowa and Oregon have not voted Republican for President since 1984, and Minnesota not since 1972.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1845 on: April 09, 2004, 06:01:20 pm »

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

I think this site has the best compilation of polling data: http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Iowa:  Rasmussen has Kerry ahead by 10 points.
Minnesota:  Rasmussen only has Kerry leading by 3 points, but the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll has him up 12.  Trust me, I'm from Minnesota, Bush will not win here.
Oregon:  The only poll I see is from the Oregonian, which has Kerry up by 5 points.

This site essentially shows dead heats in my seven tossups.  This is not the only site I look at, I just mention it because it has the most complete information.

I also think historical data has some relevance.  Iowa and Oregon have not voted Republican for President since 1984, and Minnesota not since 1972.


IA and MN are both trending Rep though. But I essentially agree with your map, you're being a tad too potimistic. Wink
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1846 on: April 09, 2004, 06:03:53 pm »

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

I think this site has the best compilation of polling data: http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Iowa:  Rasmussen has Kerry ahead by 10 points.
Minnesota:  Rasmussen only has Kerry leading by 3 points, but the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll has him up 12.  Trust me, I'm from Minnesota, Bush will not win here.
Oregon:  The only poll I see is from the Oregonian, which has Kerry up by 5 points.

This site essentially shows dead heats in my seven tossups.  This is not the only site I look at, I just mention it because it has the most complete information.

I also think historical data has some relevance.  Iowa and Oregon have not voted Republican for President since 1984, and Minnesota not since 1972.


IA and MN are both trending Rep though. But I essentially agree with your map, you're being a tad too potimistic. Wink

Trending centrist.  Centrist I say!
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Fritz
JLD
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« Reply #1847 on: April 09, 2004, 06:14:03 pm »

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  Smiley
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1848 on: April 09, 2004, 07:08:08 pm »

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  Smiley

Boy, we have a lot of people to convince about Minnesota!

Please help me stop people from writing off Nader support in Minnesota as the "LaDuke factor"! Tongue
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Fritz
JLD
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« Reply #1849 on: April 09, 2004, 08:51:34 pm »

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not
putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  Smiley


I just noticed that since I posted this, Vorlon has changed his signature map!  He now has Minnesota and Oregon in the "likely Kerry" color (equates to my "lean Kerry").  Now our maps agree even more.  If Vorlon's "marginal" equals my "tossup", we only disagree on two states- Iowa and Tennessee.

Vorlon, you reading this?  Comment?
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