|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 06, 2020, 05:33:49 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 ... 99 Print
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826826 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,024
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1800 on: April 05, 2004, 02:41:00 pm »

If their is a God in heaven he will! lol Wink

"Keep hope alive"

How about all red except for Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming and Idaho? Wink
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,153
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1801 on: April 05, 2004, 02:42:28 pm »

If thats the case I am going to start checking the cost of living in England. And I am going to start singing "God Save the Queen".
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1802 on: April 05, 2004, 04:11:45 pm »


Bush getting 500+ EV's is more likely than Kerry getting 500+.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1803 on: April 05, 2004, 05:39:47 pm »


Bush getting 500+ EV's is more likely than Kerry getting 500+.

That doesn't make that or a 400+ scenario LIKELY.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,241


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1804 on: April 05, 2004, 06:44:17 pm »



Wow man you must be getting really depressed about Kerry… it will never happen a solid Bush win (4-6%) is possible, but more likely is a Bush win of say 2-3% and that’s what would happen if the election where tomorrow… but it isn’t… so buck up man!... try and be positive hell I’m not thrilled about Kerry but he will never do that badly…    
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1805 on: April 05, 2004, 09:47:20 pm »
« Edited: April 05, 2004, 09:51:58 pm by Lunar »

Looking at the recent ones:

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2736

Kerry with 80+ in Oklahoma and North Dakota, and picks up Kentucky, but loses California, Maryland, and Vermont.  Among other things..

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2737

Kerry picks up ALL of the Deep South, but loses Oregon.  Picks up Ohio, but loses Pensylvania and Wisconsin.

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2732

Hey, another serious person having the Dems pick up Louisiana, and CO as a toss woohah.  But he has Oklahoma, Indiana, and Montana as toss-ups, err...

****

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2730

A Frenchman posted this, saying he'd like this scenario and referring to Americans as "a band of morons" and has Kerry picking up the ENTIRE Deep South.

Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1806 on: April 05, 2004, 09:49:51 pm »

That French guy in one of his comments said "It isn't a super map?"

LOL
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,153
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1807 on: April 05, 2004, 09:54:53 pm »

Tell him to go lick more toads.
Logged
NHPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1808 on: April 06, 2004, 07:33:22 am »

I posted this in the governor topic, but thought it useful here, too. If Kerry chooses Richardson, he'll lose Louisiana, in my opinion, because of this sentiment.

New study suggests bias, ex-Duke voters key to Blanco's 2003 win

The Associated Press

April 3, 2004

BATON ROUGE (AP) -- A new study by two political scientists suggests that racial bias was likely a key factor in the defeat of Indian-American Bobby Jindal in the 2003 Louisiana governor's race.

Unexpected support from the so-called "David Duke vote" was decisive in Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco's victory, the detailed statistical analysis by two government professors at Hamilton College in Clinton, N.Y., suggests.

White voters who had backed former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke in 1991, and who normally vote Republican, instead turned away from Jindal in the 2003 race, according to the analysis by Richard Skinner and Philip A. Klinkner. "Duke voters," particularly in north Louisiana, were enough to provide the new governor her margin, Skinner and Klinkner suggest.

The unusual Louisiana election provided the political scientists with a laboratory for studying an irreducible racial element in Louisiana politics.

In two other recent governor's races, for example, pitting a conservative white Republican -- Mike Foster -- against liberal black Democrats Cleo Fields and William Jefferson, the white's big win could arguably have been attributed to the political conservatism of the Louisiana voter.

But in 2003 Jindal himself ran as a conservative Republican, removing that element from the calculation. Or, as the authors put it: "It seems that the racial divisions in Louisiana are really about race, and not merely a surrogate for the ideological differences that often separate blacks and whites."

Their paper, "Black, White, Brown and Cajun: The Racial Dynamics of the 2003 Louisiana Gubernatorial Election," published by the Berkeley Electronic Press, founded by professors at the University of California at Berkeley, uses a technique favored by political scientists called regression analysis. This allowed the authors to track voting patterns based on ideology.

They demonstrate that Blanco's support came "from a different set of voters than other recent Democratic candidates," the two authors write, including Mary Landrieu in her successful U.S. Senate race in 2002.

In fact, the ex-lieutenant governor's vote "correlates strongly with the support won by Duke in 1991."

Several Louisiana political analysts praised the new study, saying its thoroughness furnishes strong evidence that Jindal's origins and skin color figured decisively against him in the Louisiana vote.

The authors themselves wrote that their numbers "provide important evidence that a significant number of northern Louisiana white voters defected from the Republican party because of race."

Throughout the campaign last fall, Jindal, a second-generation son of Indian immigrants who settled in Baton Rouge, strenuously downplayed the importance of his origins. The youthful former Bush administration official insisted that race was no longer important to Louisiana voters.

Some top Republicans in the state, however, were wary of his candidacy for that reason and backed others in the contest, who also wound up losing.

The new study appears to confirm the fears of the Republicans who turned away from Jindal.

"This analysis provides a solid case that Jindal's ethnicity was the reason a substantial number of voters who normally vote Republican, voted against Jindal," said LSU political scientist Wayne Parent. He called it the "last word" on the role Jindal's ethnic origins played in the 2003 vote.

"They applied sound political science methods to the election results and uncovered some voting patterns that should give us pause," said Lance Hill, executive director of the Southern Institute for Education and Research at Tulane University.

Most notably, the authors demonstrate that where Duke did well in 1991, so did Blanco in 2003 -- far better, in fact, than Landrieu in 2002.

The openly racist ex-Klansman gained a majority of the vote in 26 Louisiana parishes; Blanco averaged 10 percentage points better than Landrieu in these parishes. And in nine parishes where Duke got more than 55 percent of the vote, Blanco averaged 17 percentage points better than the U.S. Senator.

Most conclusive, according to Parent, is the two political scientists' examination of results from a far smaller unit than the parish -- the precinct. And here again, in the north Louisiana precincts examined by the authors, where Duke had gotten more than 60 percent of the vote in 1991, Blanco averaged 13 percentage points better than Landrieu.

©The Lafayette Daily Advertiser April 3, 2004
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,024
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1809 on: April 06, 2004, 11:19:48 am »

Interesting article... although it could also be claimed that as Duke's voters in Norther LA were mostly...er... rednecks (no offense intended)... and not exactly affluent, they might have been swayed by Blanco's negative ads, attack Jindal on healthcare.

BTW turnout was sharply down from 1999. It's also possible that the "Dukeists" didn't bother to vote (a Woman against an Asian).
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1810 on: April 06, 2004, 12:31:30 pm »

Interesting.  I think a Rustbelt guy is more likely for the VP, since a Democratic Ohio would be the most direct way for victory.  However, Richardson is still a likely possibility.

I question how many of those guys were going to default on the Democratic party if it's a  White vs White race though.  Also, since Richardson is only half-Mexican, will hopefully never visit the state if he's chosen, and will only be at the bottom of the ticket, this effect in the article might not exist.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1811 on: April 06, 2004, 09:26:42 pm »

UPDATED:



Same EV total that is in my signature, but I adjusted some leans into solids and solids into leans.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1812 on: April 06, 2004, 11:39:18 pm »
« Edited: April 06, 2004, 11:40:23 pm by Lunar »

I can't see Kerry picking up West Virginia if Bush stomps him in Washington, New Hampshire, the entire Midwest, and two other battleground steel states (Ohio and Pen).  And do you have Maryland at 40%?  
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1813 on: April 07, 2004, 12:31:55 am »
« Edited: April 07, 2004, 12:32:37 am by Lunar »

Only one new recent of note:

****

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2768

Not even sure what the hell this is.  Kerry wins from Texas to Maryland, sweeping the South, and Bush getting everything else?  On top of that, every state except 8 are tossups (those 8 including New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia).

****
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,153
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1814 on: April 07, 2004, 12:53:24 am »

Lunar, that is Super Soultys map. I think he was discussing what would happen if Guiliani ran in '08. He's been on this Guiliani kick lately.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1815 on: April 07, 2004, 01:02:52 am »

But every state a Toss?  Ok.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,153
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1816 on: April 07, 2004, 01:12:36 am »

I have a question about your map. How the heck do you give Colorado and LA to Kerry? The Solid south will remain solid this year. Their's very very little chance they will want a Yankee. Colorado is fairly conservative and Bush has been very very kind to outdoorsman.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1817 on: April 07, 2004, 01:37:29 am »
« Edited: April 07, 2004, 01:38:55 am by Lunar »

I wanted an unusual scenario and it's easier to find reasons why Kerry would have a chance with them than some of the other predicted "solid" states.  It all depends on how Kerry plays his cards.

I don't actually view this as the most "likely" of scenarios, but I believe it could be one.

Analysis of Colorado:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_2783338,00.html

I don't view the South as solid as many people do.  While Gore lost the entire thing, Clinton picked up from Louisiana up through Missouri and Kentucky both times.  While Kerry isn't a Southerner, he is Catholic and Catholic Louisiana might be Democratic enough to toss him a bit over the top.  


Of course, you can find a reason in any state why George Bush or Kerry will surely pick it up, but I think there is a possibility here this far back (will change as we get closer).  Everything is as solid as apple sauce at this point and it's more fun than a scenario that has Kerry picking up New Hampshire but losing Iowa, heh.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1818 on: April 07, 2004, 09:33:03 am »

I can't see Kerry picking up West Virginia if Bush stomps him in Washington, New Hampshire, the entire Midwest, and two other battleground steel states (Ohio and Pen).  And do you have Maryland at 40%?  

No that's at lean Kerry.  It is a confidence map.
Logged
muon2
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1819 on: April 07, 2004, 12:33:03 pm »

The statement about CO is interesting. If you were living on Mars for the last three years, and only had the stats from 2000 to go on, you could reasonably guess thta CO was more in play than WV. Bush had 52% in WV, but only 51% in CO, so Bush must a greater fraction of his 2000 voters in WV to lose it, than to lose CO. Of course the thrid party vote was much higher in CO, and I didn't consider it. But the point is that a naive look puts CO in the battleground.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1820 on: April 07, 2004, 06:51:14 pm »

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2794

Interesting, Bush gets New Jersey, Pensylvania, & California but Kerry gets Colorado, Ohio, Louisiana and Tennessee.

Version 3 of his map is the coolest:



269 - 269, hah.  Version 4 has Kerry losing New York and chunks of New England but gaining the South and the Heartland.


****
Logged
Kghadial
Rookie
**
Posts: 224


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1821 on: April 07, 2004, 08:35:15 pm »

If I was doing a North vs. South map, I would put what he had but give Hawaii and Nevada to the Blue, and give Colorado to the Red ...

Although i guess that this proves that power in this country is trending southward. He had to put Nevada and Hawaii, states that would be considered southern, in the North to balance it out ...
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,939
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1822 on: April 07, 2004, 08:43:08 pm »

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2794

Interesting, Bush gets New Jersey, Pensylvania, & California but Kerry gets Colorado, Ohio, Louisiana and Tennessee.

Version 3 of his map is the coolest:



269 - 269, hah.  Version 4 has Kerry losing New York and chunks of New England but gaining the South and the Heartland.


****

Noooooo!  You took my one-that-shall-yield-a-laugh person Tongue Wink
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,939
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1823 on: April 07, 2004, 08:54:51 pm »

Okies.  Here's mine:





Heh Smiley  My page is http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2798.  Ignore the ilikeverin (G-MN).  I have no clue what I was thinking back when I created it.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,153
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1824 on: April 08, 2004, 01:48:57 am »

The Democrats could only dream of this!!

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2800
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 ... 99 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines