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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826816 times)
JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1700 on: March 28, 2004, 04:47:38 am »

put [ img ]urlforpicturehere[ / img ]

except without the spaces between the ['s and the writing and between the / and the writing and stuff.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1701 on: March 28, 2004, 10:22:45 am »
« Edited: March 28, 2004, 10:24:24 am by StatesRights »

This is my updated map :



This is my confidence map :

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dunn
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« Reply #1702 on: March 28, 2004, 10:43:02 am »

ev numbers please
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1703 on: March 28, 2004, 10:46:39 am »

Prediction :

Republican : 336

Democrat : 202

Confidence:

Republican : 201

Democrat :173

Tossup : 164
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1704 on: March 28, 2004, 11:31:15 am »

Not bad... Bush won't get 60% in Arkansas... other than that...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1705 on: March 28, 2004, 11:48:23 am »

I'm gonna update mine now.  I lose faith in Kerry every day.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1706 on: March 28, 2004, 11:51:32 am »



Bush/Cheney 350
Kerry/Edwards 188
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1707 on: March 28, 2004, 12:10:15 pm »

You may call me a dreamer..lol

Miami though I would like that to be the final result I just dont see it.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1708 on: March 28, 2004, 12:11:37 pm »

Can a Republican ever win Hawaii?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1709 on: March 28, 2004, 12:17:06 pm »

You may call me a dreamer..lol

Miami though I would like that to be the final result I just dont see it.

Why not?
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Lunar
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« Reply #1710 on: March 28, 2004, 12:31:25 pm »

Probably because you have Bush winning every swing state and then some (except West Virginia).  The election is going to be closer than that.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1711 on: March 28, 2004, 12:49:49 pm »

   

I find it very unlikely that Bush would enjoy such a sweeping victory...it will all come down to Ohio some are worried about PA... last year polls in PA where similar to where they are now...in fact back then Bush was beating us by 3-4 points!...it (as last time) will take a lot of foot work and plenty of adds but we should hold PA by a similar margin to last time...Michigan and Oregon will not go to Bush either... MN, IA and NM could really go either way (a week ago i would have said Bush will win IA and NM but now I'm not so sure same with MN)... in WI the polls are very good for Kerry considering Gore won in it by just 0.07% last time round... the last poll out from the American Research Group shows Kerry-46%, Bush-43%, Nader-4% in WI... i doubt Nader will have that kinda presence (he just doesnít have the money or the activist support).... but your being way to generous to Bush he will not effectively sweep all the swing states just wont happen... the one really good thing about Kerry is he is pretty close to what most people see as "generic democrat" and in every poll given a choice better Bush and "generic democrat", generic democrat wins...some dems on this board are way too depressed about the Kerry candidacy...  
 
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mooster
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« Reply #1712 on: March 28, 2004, 12:57:11 pm »

Right now, the national polling numbers are 45% to 45%.  Obviously, it all comes down to a few battleground states, and how the vote divides there.  Amongst LIKELY voters (the only kind that count), its 48-44 in Michigan, 45-41 in Ohio, 45-44 in Penn, 48-45 in Florida, 47-44 in Minn, and 51-41 in Iowa,  ALL IN FAVOUR OF KERRY!  (I know, its a bit shocking).  If the election were held today, Kerry would actually win the electoral vote.  Now, naturally, the margins are within the polling error in many states, but the trend can't be denied.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1713 on: March 28, 2004, 01:30:55 pm »

I know, I know.  But I think it will give him a few votes if he can appear to be more regional than Bush.

Actually, again, i looked  at your map and I dont see Kerry winning Colorado, and I think Bush winning Iowa is just as unlikely.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1714 on: March 28, 2004, 01:42:24 pm »

I'm predicting some things will change between now and November, including some trends.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1715 on: March 28, 2004, 02:48:19 pm »

Kerry is not a "generic democrat". Kerry is a far to the left liberal Democrat, and even old Blonde Killer has shot him down on more then a few occassions.
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klrbzzz
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« Reply #1716 on: March 28, 2004, 02:51:24 pm »

Kerry is to a "generic democrat" what Limbaugh is to a "generic republican".
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Ben.
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« Reply #1717 on: March 28, 2004, 05:11:57 pm »

Kerry is to a "generic democrat" what Limbaugh is to a "generic republican".

Which Dem pol would you see as a "generic democrat"... you should read the article in this weeks econamist is very good... i really dont see however how you can say that Kerry is as extreem as democrat as Limbaugh is a republican....
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1718 on: March 28, 2004, 05:17:06 pm »

Gephardt is a generic Dem.
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #1719 on: March 28, 2004, 05:20:13 pm »


But he's way to the left of Kerry? why him?.... i would say if you want a generic dem your looking at Harkin or an older version of Edwards however in alot of voters minds i'd say Kerry is pretty much as they imagine a "generic dem" IMHO...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1720 on: March 28, 2004, 05:20:43 pm »

Gephardt is to the right of KErry
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #1721 on: March 28, 2004, 05:55:28 pm »


No he isnít on trade, on government spending, on taxation, he is very much to Kerry's left (however he is a friend of Kerry's and now a big supporter)...  
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Lunar
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« Reply #1722 on: March 28, 2004, 05:58:01 pm »

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opebo
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« Reply #1723 on: March 28, 2004, 06:01:14 pm »

On my personal chart, a 'generic Democrat' is frightfully far to the left.  I only find people like Zell Miller, Breux, Leiberman, and a few others at all comparable with the political center of the country.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1724 on: March 28, 2004, 07:43:42 pm »


No he isnít on trade, on government spending, on taxation, he is very much to Kerry's left (however he is a friend of Kerry's and now a big supporter)...  


Kerry is the most liberal senate member.
Gephardt is in the center-left among house members.
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