2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Saratoga2DM]

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?

If Edwards and Kerry are on the same ticket you may get NC, SC, VA (the governor recently endorsed Kerry).  Florida and Georgia are tossups, so is Tennessee.  But thats it.

By the way, welcome to the forum.  

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello All:

Well, its been a while since I last posted something so I took this opportunity to point out that Edwards has a very good shot at winning NY's primary.  This would be a huge win and it could give him the support he needs to win several other states.  

As for predicting the 2004 election, I think if Kerry gets the nod, this country will face another polarized electorate.  But if Edwards gets it, I think the Dems could win by at least 30 Electoral votes.  

See you all later.

 

[Saratoga2DM]

Hello All:

Super Tuesday has finally revealed the Democratic nominee for the presidency,  and for the first time since 1988 he is a northerner.  John Kerry told GW Bush last night on the phone that he wanted to "stick to the issues" yet our conservative media has not revealed to the voting public how they will interpret that statement.  

Kerry vs.  Bush will be an interesting ticket and it will be a close election unless one or the other candidate falls apart  prior to the election.  Can Kerry sustain his momentum now that he will be harassed by the GOP, the media, and to an extent Ralph Nader?  I don't know.  Kerry understands how improtant this election is to the future of our great democracy, and we can only hope the voting public answers his call to dethrone Bush from his Supreme Court appointed-presidency.  

I have a feeling that legitimacy will be another key issue in this campaign, especially since election 2000 will come back to haunt Bush in november.  

Finally, the issue of potential running mates for both candidates is a puzzling one.  Will Cheney decide to leave the politics and if so, who will replace him?  Maybe Colin Powell, but I have heard that NY governor George Pataki may want to be Bush's running mate.  His strong environmental record and his current popularity in NY would make the Republican ticket very difficult to beat.  

For Kerry, Geographical balance is necessary.  Bill Richardson of New Mexico would be great for the Dems but in an interview with Wolf Blitzer a couple of weeks ago, he said he would rather stay as governor.  Edwards would be a likely choice since he is very popular in the South.  Some have mentioned Hillary Clinton but in my opinion she should stay as senator and leave politics when her term ends in 2006.   But I think when all is said and done, Kerry will make the right choice.  

As for me, I need to reevaluate my prediction map.  
See you later and long live the Empire State.