Here's my weighted polls average, with thoughts and 2000 results.
ME Kerry by 4 (was 5). Sounds about right. 2nd CD will be close again but will go for Kerry too.
NH Kerry by 1 (was Bush by 1). Ditto.
VT Kerry by 11 (was 10). I think the lead's going to be rather larger here, actually.
MA Kerry by 25 (was 27). Based on polls underestimating Dem motivation, as often happens in safe states. Will be bigger than 2000.
RI Kerry by 21 (was 29). Will be bigger than that, though smaller than Massachusetts (or than 2000).
CT Kerry by 13 (was 17). I'm okay with that.
NY Kerry by 18 (was 25). LMAO. Won't move much from 2000 result.
NJ Kerry by 6 (was 16). I'd guess it'll be a tad more than that, but closer 6 than 16. 8 to 10, say.
PA Kerry by 2 (was 4). I say 4, not that it matters.
OH Bush by 1 (was 4). Looking good, except that Kerry has to win either Ohio or Florida, else he's doomed. Fingers crossed...
IN Bush by 17 (was 16). Yeah, looks fine.
IL Kerry by 12 (was 12). ditto.
MI Kerry by 5 (was 5). ditto.
WI Bush by 2 (was Gore by 0.) Hate to say it, but I believe that's about right.
MN Kerry by 1 (was 2). I'm pretty sure Kerry holds it, not sure whether or not it'll be this close.
IA Bush by 1 (was Gore by 0.) Will be pretty much dead on the national average once more. I'm saying Kerry by 0.
MO Bush by 5 (was 3). Looks a tad high.
ND Bush by 25 (was 28) Looks too low. I'm saying 28 again.
SD Bush by 17 (was 23). I'd love to see that, but we won't. Bush by 20-22.
NE Bush by 29 (was 29). Fine.
KS Bush by 21 (was 21). Fine.
DE Kerry by 11 (was 13). Looks okay. Might be just about in single digits, even.
MD Kerry by 11 (was 16). I say MD will stay three points higher than DE.
DC Kerry by 73 (was 76). Based on 2000 result plus one single poll with too many undecideds. I look at the Nader vote and think it'll be more like 79.
VA Bush by 6 (was
. Fine.
WV Bush by 3 (was 6). I'd a thought it'd swing a we bit more than Ohio...but I guess the Dems would have had to actually campaign in the state for that...I'm not quite writing it off yet, though.
NC Bush by 7 (was 13). Edwards sure having an effect here.
SC Bush by 15 (was 16). Why not?
GA Bush by 16 (was 12). Rich, southern, military. Yeah, might trend that far Republican.
FL Bush by 2 (was 0). Looks the more likely Rep hold by a whisper. Jeb'll manage. Somehow.
KY Bush by 17 (was 15). Fine.
TN Bush by 12 (was 4). Unmasking the Gore effect. Probably spot on.
AL Bush by 20 (was 15). This one looks too high to me. Closer 16, I'd guess.
MS Bush by 16 (was 17). Fine.
AR Bush by 5 (was 5). Looks a tad high.
LA Bush by 12 (was
. That may well be.
OK Bush by 27 (was 22).The state's very well polled, due to the Senate race, so I'm taking their word for it.
TX Bush by 22 (was 21). Looking allright.
MT Bush by 23 (was 25). Ditto.
ID Bush by 36 (was 40). Ditto.
WY Bush by 39 (was 40). Ditto.
CO Bush by 6 (was
. Ditto, even though that starts to look repetitive.
NM Bush by 0 (was Gore by 0). I say Dems hold it, but I really don't have a clue. Might swing pretty far in either direction actually, though more likely it'll be dead close again.
AZ Bush by 9 (was 6.) Sounds okay.
UT Bush by 43 (was 40). Yeah...looks mighty mighty, don't it now...but there's quite a couple of polls out...I'll take it.
NV Bush by 4 (was 4). Looking quite right.
WA Kerry by 6 (was 6). Okay, sure. Although I'd say 8.
OR Kerry by 4 (was 0). Whoever said Oregon was a battleground? Oregon is not a battleground.
CA Kerry by 10 (was 12). Okay.
AK Bush by 30 (was 31.) Based on 2000 result and one poll. I have an inkling Alaska is going to be a good bit closer than 2000 actually, though still a Rep landslide win. 20-25, say.
HI Kerry 9 (was 18). Sounds fair. Might be even closer. I say HI beats out NJ for strongest pro-Bush swing.
Overall, the maths says 296-242 for Bush. The gut says 274-264 for Kerry. Or, well, maybe the gut does say 296-242 for Bush after all. But the prediction says 274-264 for Kerry.