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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826833 times)
opebo
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« Reply #2150 on: May 29, 2004, 05:23:03 pm »

Someone claimed here that NJ is a tossup state. The fact is that NJ is super-safe for Kerry. Bush+Buchannan got there only 40.3% in 2000.
VA, on the other hand might become tied, since Bush got there 52.5% in 2000 and the Reps are in a slow, but constant decline in that state.


Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2151 on: May 29, 2004, 05:44:31 pm »


Just right click and copy the image location.  Then paste it between IMG tags (see the help button if you need greater detail).

You have a strong Kerry victory.  I think if Kerry is +5% or whatever, he'll win West Virginia and be stronger in New Jersey than you have him.
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Shira
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« Reply #2152 on: May 29, 2004, 05:52:20 pm »

"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so"

The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.

You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.

There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)

FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.

There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.

OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable

My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000

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StatesRights
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« Reply #2153 on: May 29, 2004, 06:07:15 pm »


Florida will never and I repeat never go Kerry this year. Mark my words.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2154 on: May 29, 2004, 06:09:43 pm »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 06:10:27 pm by Lunar »

It has the edge to Bush, but it obviously isn't the equivilent of Texas or Alabama.  You really think Florida has shifted +10 Bush since 2000 or something?  Even then, 55-45 isn't impossible.  I think it has shifted about +4.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2155 on: May 29, 2004, 06:35:33 pm »

It has the edge to Bush, but it obviously isn't the equivilent of Texas or Alabama.  You really think Florida has shifted +10 Bush since 2000 or something?  Even then, 55-45 isn't impossible.  I think it has shifted about +4.

The reason I see it shifting to heavier then before GOP was that most of the old time Democrats are becoming offended by the social views of their party. They see their party as being taken over by fringe elements. I wholeheartedly agree with that setiment to.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2156 on: May 29, 2004, 06:48:55 pm »


put img tags around the url.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2157 on: May 29, 2004, 06:50:57 pm »


RWN you need AIM! Sad I'd enjoy having a discussion with you someday.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2158 on: May 29, 2004, 06:51:59 pm »

Someone claimed here that NJ is a tossup state. The fact is that NJ is super-safe for Kerry. Bush+Buchannan got there only 40.3% in 2000.
VA, on the other hand might become tied, since Bush got there 52.5% in 2000 and the Reps are in a slow, but constant decline in that state.


Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so.

44% max, most likely 42.5-43.5
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2159 on: May 29, 2004, 07:20:04 pm »

"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so"

The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.

You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.

There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)

FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.

There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.

OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable

My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000



IA is a GOP state moving towards the Dems.  MN has moved to the center but I don't think that it will go much farther right.  WI has been centrist and will continue to be so.
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opebo
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« Reply #2160 on: May 30, 2004, 12:38:18 am »

"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so"

The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.

You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.

There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)

FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.

There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.

OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable

My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000



IA is a GOP state moving towards the Dems.  MN has moved to the center but I don't think that it will go much farther right.  WI has been centrist and will continue to be so.

Iowa hasn't been a very GOP state for the last 25 years or so.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2161 on: May 30, 2004, 08:03:02 am »

They just recently elected a Dem Gov, and their House delegation and state legislature are GOP held.

States w/0-1 Dems in their House Delegation except those w/Dem majority delegations:



States w/0-2 Dems in their House Delegation except those w/Dem majority delegations:

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classical liberal
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« Reply #2162 on: May 30, 2004, 08:08:35 am »

In contrast:

States w/0-2 Republicans in their House Delegation except those w/GOP majority delegations:

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AuH2O
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« Reply #2163 on: May 30, 2004, 08:56:40 pm »

My first post! I'm a political science student... live in VA, go to school in SC.

My first comment: Virginia is not moving to the Dems! If anything, it's becoming more Republican. The legislature was dominated by the DNC less than a decade ago. Now, the GOP is over 2/3 in the House and 25/40 or so in the Senate. Mark Warner got elected by running as a pro-choice Republican.

The state has had a lot of Northerners move in, but these 'immigrants' tend to adopt similar voting patterns to the locals (there could be self-selection, but Merle Black of Emory thinks it is a real phenomenon). In fact, the emerging monopoly on white voters by the GOP in the South guarantees its power base there. For many people, the debate is GOP vs. not voting.

To some extent, that trend is being mirrored nationally. As the DNC continues to fancy itself a coalition of minority interests, 'majority' interests will shift to the GOP. The Upper Midwest is particularly fertile ground for Republicans, as is the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is tougher, but I expect the shift will impact that region as well.
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Horus
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« Reply #2164 on: May 30, 2004, 09:22:35 pm »

Hey! New here.

These are my predictions.

Liable to change, if need be.


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Lunar
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« Reply #2165 on: May 30, 2004, 09:41:54 pm »

If he does that well in Colorado, Louisiana and Missouri then he'll pick up West Virginia too.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2166 on: May 30, 2004, 09:46:04 pm »

current electionprojection.com prediction-

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Lunar
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« Reply #2167 on: May 30, 2004, 09:52:41 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2004, 09:53:23 pm by Lunar »

It's not actually a prediction, merely a snapshot of the election if it were held today.  The owner of the site still believes Bush will get Delaware and California.

Interesting though.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2168 on: May 30, 2004, 10:14:20 pm »



R-270
D-268
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kfseattle
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« Reply #2169 on: May 31, 2004, 04:21:18 am »

How many of you plan on considering a change to your predictions after Kerry's VP is announced?

Personally, I think a lot could hinge on it.  I'm not a believer of a landslide in 2004.  I think this will be won on the margin, where factors like a VP pick can make a big difference.  

So I'm not even going to predict state-by-state until I know who Kerry's running mate is.

I will, of course, still predict a Kerry victory, but a very, very close one.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #2170 on: May 31, 2004, 07:18:45 am »

My first post! I'm a political science student... live in VA, go to school in SC.

My first comment: Virginia is not moving to the Dems! If anything, it's becoming more Republican. The legislature was dominated by the DNC less than a decade ago. Now, the GOP is over 2/3 in the House and 25/40 or so in the Senate. Mark Warner got elected by running as a pro-choice Republican.

The state has had a lot of Northerners move in, but these 'immigrants' tend to adopt similar voting patterns to the locals (there could be self-selection, but Merle Black of Emory thinks it is a real phenomenon). In fact, the emerging monopoly on white voters by the GOP in the South guarantees its power base there. For many people, the debate is GOP vs. not voting.

To some extent, that trend is being mirrored nationally. As the DNC continues to fancy itself a coalition of minority interests, 'majority' interests will shift to the GOP. The Upper Midwest is particularly fertile ground for Republicans, as is the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is tougher, but I expect the shift will impact that region as well.

I love it when people say things like. "GOP strengthening in all parts of the country amongst majority of population smooth sailing from here till dawn."  OK I'm paraphrasing.  Niether party is going to led themselves get caught off guard and lose the majority of its constiuency.  Since the party's are diametrically they will shift along the political spectrum relative to each other more or less relative to each other.  This political era has seen a major shift to the right in political ideology.  The democratic party in the 1990s is about as liberal as the republican party was in the late 1960s. It didn't mean that everybody quit the democratic party and joined the republican though since the party is composed and at the will of its constituents the whole dialog (for both parties) shifted to the right.  The has disenfranchised the the left wing of the democratic party and has empowered some of the fringe right groups of the republican party (the neocons).  If anything though this relation is pendular and I hope that we stand at the dawn of a new day for liberalism.  And I know that their are those of you who think that I'm just rearranging  chairs on a ship that's going down.  I think though the democratic party is increasing going to appeal to many American's with a fiscally wise and freedom embracing philosophy.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2171 on: May 31, 2004, 10:20:35 am »

Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed... most districts in VA are uncontested, and a lot of the Democrats in VA used to be rather right wing (eg. Harry F Byrd... or Virgil Goode, before he ratted).
You ought to know that.
Secondly to describe *Warner* as a *Republican* is plain silly. Sure he's a moderate-to-populist-rural-orientated-Democrat, but *that does not make someone a Republican*.
Your other analysis is highly suspect as well.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #2172 on: May 31, 2004, 10:24:59 am »

Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed...
Or just about every other state...
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tweed
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« Reply #2173 on: May 31, 2004, 10:26:58 am »

Republicans have an 11 seat advantage is the NY senate.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2174 on: May 31, 2004, 10:38:08 am »

Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed...
Or just about every other state...

True... but for some reason it's worse in VA... sod all candidates get opposed... meaning that a gain of 2 seats is thought of as huge...
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