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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 830384 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
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« Reply #175 on: February 09, 2004, 04:01:47 pm »

Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.
That was my map.

I think a perfect storm of events are happening in Ohio and Kerry will win the state 50-49% or so.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #176 on: February 10, 2004, 08:07:32 am »

Oh, sorry about that.  Neat Map Miami.  Anyway, what 'perfect storm of events' is happening in Ohio?  As far as I can tell, a very ordinary, somewhat conservative state is experiencing some excessive localized unemployment, but it will probably trend in the right direction over the next 10 months.  I think everything other than unemployement favors Republicans in Ohio.
Ohio has one fof the highest muslim populations in the USA, also, which will swing the state to Bush.  Also, Gov. Taft is VERY unpopular in Ohio, a Republican.  I don't see how anything going on helps the GOP in Ohio.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #177 on: February 10, 2004, 03:41:21 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #178 on: February 10, 2004, 03:55:56 pm »

Indeed, those will all be key factors. It would be nice to see some new polls in Ohio, unfortunatley there hasn't been anything for quite some time.
Last poll from Ohio was realeased 9/19!!!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #179 on: February 10, 2004, 03:58:56 pm »

Hey all:

Regardless of which candidate gets the nomination, Ohio will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.  Bush won it in 2000 by at least 150,000 votes, but then again all of us could be in for a surprise come election time.  
He didn't break 50%.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #180 on: February 10, 2004, 04:06:29 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #181 on: February 10, 2004, 04:23:05 pm »

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.
I could see 95% of people doing it if they felt their re-election hopes were next to dead without it, or their re-election hopes were 100% if they faked it.  Obvious, if the capture of UBL is announced on 11/1/04, it will look fake, but if it announce in September, it may not.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #182 on: February 11, 2004, 03:38:11 pm »

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #183 on: February 11, 2004, 04:48:09 pm »

Dean has thw second most delegates, somehow.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #184 on: February 16, 2004, 08:02:52 am »

Prediction Map UPDATED:



Confidence map UPDATED:



I switched Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin into the Kerry column, but Bush still wins by the razor-thin 270-268 margin.  The confidence map totals have Bush with 221, Kerry with 200, and 117 are tossups.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #185 on: February 16, 2004, 10:08:23 am »

Why are New Mexico, Nevada & Missouri so solidly republican, miami?  I'm also surprised you still have  Iowa, WV & NH in the republican camp.  Do you really think the dems can win Arkansas (I know you've got Bush winning, but you have it as a tossup)?
Lots of questions Smiley

New Mexico only went for us by a few hundred votes, and Nevada we lost by 4% (if I recall correctly.)  I think bush's share of the hispanic vote will increase, hence Bush winning those states.  Nevada could be close because of Yucca Mountain.

The only way Kerry could win Missouri is if he pciked Gephardt, and even then, Bush would still have the edge.

Arkansas is a southern state, I can't see Kerry winning anywhere in the south otherthan FL and AR.  Clark could push this state to Kerry.

NH is a socially conservative state, and unemployment there is only 4%, so I think bush has the definite edge there.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #186 on: February 16, 2004, 10:20:52 am »

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #187 on: February 16, 2004, 10:25:50 am »

Kerry will get his skinny ass handed to him in the south, minus FL and maybe AR.  No margin of error in the battlegrounds.

Of course, if Roy Moore runs, that's a different story.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #188 on: February 17, 2004, 09:07:25 am »

I've looked into the 2000 result in WV and have found something very interesting:

Although turnout amoung registered voters rose slightly, the turnout in the heavily Democrat south fell sharply.
Well Al, take a 3-month vacation to WV in Auguest, september, and October, incouraging the Dems in the southern portion of the state to vote.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #189 on: February 17, 2004, 09:48:38 am »

Don't jinx KErry!   He will LOSE!!!!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #190 on: February 17, 2004, 01:57:50 pm »

No need to jinx him, Kerry WILL LOSE Smiley

Thank you, you have now jinxed Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #191 on: February 17, 2004, 02:22:19 pm »

Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #192 on: February 17, 2004, 02:39:01 pm »

We need to talk Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #193 on: February 17, 2004, 04:26:29 pm »


Politics needs its version of the Sports Illustrated jinx.
The Time Magazine Jinx.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #194 on: February 17, 2004, 05:19:33 pm »



remember when I said befiore you guys needed to get out more? Smiley


Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.
You post at other forums too and your only 1300 behind me, so don't give me that crap.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #195 on: February 17, 2004, 05:33:14 pm »

this is the only internet forum I am a member of...
That isn't true.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #196 on: February 17, 2004, 05:34:34 pm »


No? Tell me which the other one is then.
http://rainman2242.proboards25.com
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #197 on: February 17, 2004, 05:40:41 pm »

Well, post in moderation to keep it running.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #198 on: February 17, 2004, 05:42:44 pm »

Well, post in moderation to keep it running.

I will, tomorrow, I have to go to bed soon, so I'll just finish off things here for tonight.
Okay, nighty-night.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #199 on: February 18, 2004, 08:35:20 am »

What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.
He doesn't have a prayer at the south anyway.  Those fundamentalist NASCAR uneducated white men down there are stuck in the 14th century.
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