2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?

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How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?

At least.

And how many replies?  3000?

I think posting at this topic will heat up during and after the primaries.

Every forum has a very long thread, and this is ours.

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Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.

It's gonna be a fun ride.

How do you think replies on this thread will trend after the election?

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Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.

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It would be the logical thing to do,  to kind of archive the thread.

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Kerry would win california and Pennsylvania, but lose Michigan and wisconsin.  He might take maine also.

I think Kerry actually might be a weaker candidate than Dean.

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UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 349 to Kerry 189.

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Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

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Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

You mean b/c the Red area looks so small?

Yeah, all the Bush states that are large geographically are small population wise.

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Nice Map you did a good Job on it

Thank you.  Tell god that I made a nice map, alright?

It is not a sure thing that Kerry would win Washington.

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OK, maybe not surely.

But he'd have a better chance at it then Bush, imo.

I think Bush would take it becuase Kerry wouldn't energize the urban liberal base in Seattle, which is the state's lone Democratic stronghold.

What does imo mean?

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I don't know all that much about Washington state either, but I do know the only liberal area is the greater Seattle area, as you go further west in the less populted areas it becomes more conservative.

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Does Spokane vote democratic?  I don't know exactly where Spokane is located so the county maps don't help me out.

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Spokane County voted for Bush in 2000, but voted Democrat in 1992 and 1996 and almost did in 1988.
It's on the WA-ID border.

Okay.  thanks.

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UPDATED Edwards v. bush:


Edwards 325 to Bush 213

Call me crazy, but I watched Edwards on Larry King lasy night, and I realized how well he connected to people.  He can and will do this.

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Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4

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Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4

With the success Bush had, I'm surprised more Dems didn't choose that path. Edwards was able to do it because everyone else wasn't.  They could have put him away by now.

Do you think Edwards can beat GWB?

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I'd love to see Edwards as our candidate and I believe he can beat bush, but I don't think JE or any other Dem can swamp Bush 325-213

I think it'll be the 2000 map all over again with Edwards picking up New Hampshire and Missouri to squeek out a 275-263 victory

Edwards wold definitely sway WV to us...populism wins.

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Well, now that Dean has gone bye bye, I'm hoping for General Clark as an opponent.  He's at least as nutty as Dean.  Alas, we probably won't get that lucky.  That would be too good to be true.

It will be Edwards or Kerry.

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I bet that is Lewis Toldheim's last post.  People whose useernames are their actal name don't last that long, with the exception of Zeigermann.

Anyway, most of the states that swung right went GOP anyway, and most that swung left went Dem anyway.

Also, add Constitution to the right-wing paties, and add the socialist parties tot he dem side for a more accurate prediction.

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Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.

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Dean's speech (AKA drunken tirade) in Iowa was the finishing touch in the end of Howard dean.

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Dean has dropped down to 10 points behind Kerry in NH, and he used to lead there by 30 points.  I think that the final nail is in the coffin.

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I guess you didn't see the deabte last night, gustaf, but clark was horrible.  He made no sense.  That's why I said he shoudl wear a shirt that says 'I have no idea what's going on.'  This thing is between Kerry and edwards, the southern moderate anbd the Northeastern liberal.

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HE hasn't really been up in the polls, so he won't go down.

They broadcast the debate in Sweden?